With two weeks to go to the byelection in Cardiff South and Penarth Westminster constituency Following the formal resignation of the sitting MP Alun Michael there has been little interest in the media
The vacancy arose because Alun Michael was selected as the Labour Party candidate in the Police and Crime Commissioner Elections which a to be held on the same day 15 November 2012. Michael's candidacy required him to relinquish his Westminster and The writ for the by-election in Cardiff South and Penarth was moved on 23 October 2012 All the Parties have been aware of the date for months.
The Candidates are
Labour Co-op Stephen Doughty
Communist Robert Griffiths
Socialist Labour Andrew Jordan
Liberal Democrat Bablin Molik
Plaid Cymru Luke Nicholas
Green Anthony Slaughter
Conservative Craig Williams
UKIP Simon Zeigler
At the last General Election Labour saw a dip in support for Labour
|General Election 2010: Cardiff South and Penarth|
|Labour Co-op||Alun Michael||17,262||38.9||-7.7|
|Liberal Democrat||Dominic Hannigan||9,875||22.3||+2.4|
|Plaid Cymru||Farida Aslam||1,851||4.2||-1.1|
|Labour Co-op hold||Swing||-6.0|
However in the Assembly Elections Labour on the back of the Toxic Con/Libdem coalition saw Labour regain its ground.
|Welsh Assembly Election 2011: Cardiff South and Penarth|
|Plaid Cymru||Liz Musa||3,324||12.1||-2.2|
|Liberal Democrats||Sian Anne Cliff||2,786||10.1||-10.2|
So it looks like Labout will have no problem retaining the seat.
However; there may some resentment that Alun Michael has abandoned the seat he only fought in 2010 and The new Labour Council has almost totally reverted to the arrogant rule which saw it lose power to the Lib Dems in 2004 indeed many see former leader Russell Goodway as the Éminence grise the new council.
Labour may be helped by the Tories problems over Europe and UKIP picking up votes from them
The Lib Dems main hope in a Byelection that four years ago they would have high hopes of winning will be to finish a good third.
Plaid in a seat that they have made little impact on in the past can hope that they can increase their share of the vote and hope that Grangetown where their candidate stood last time will vote as they did last May.
UKIP may have their resources diverted to other contest and may not make an impact . But the Anti Europe vote may just see them increasing their share.
It would be foolish to say that we won't be shocked by the result in a fortnight but with no clear contender for Labour and no Squeeze on other parties votes it will be likely that Stephen Doughty will be packing his bags for London.
But as George Galloway showed with his 36.6% swing from Lab to Respect in Bradford West anything possible.