Monday, 19 November 2012

Guardian get it wrong on Catalonia


The Guardian website had  a head line

Catalan leader will fall short of majority to press for independence, polls say


The report said ..
Catalan president Artur Mas's party will fall short of the overall majority it needs at regional elections on 25 November to hold a referendum over Catalonia's independence from Spain, opinion polls published in several Spanish newspapers on Sunday have predicted.
A survey by the Metroscopia polling group in El País, Spain's biggest selling non-sports paper, predicted Convergència i Unió's (CiU) haul would be unchanged at 62 seats in the 135-member Catalan parliament after next Sunday's polls. Meanwhile, Barcelona-based daily La Vanguardia forecast the conservative party would garner 62-64 legislators in the assembly, compared with the 68 they would need to govern without the support of six other parties expected to win seats.
However; as a number of commentators have pointed out this is either deliberately misleading or the result of a poor understanding of Catalan Politics.

As the polls indicate that the even more  Pro-Interdependence minded   Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) is likely to win  12-16 seats and another party Iinitiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV-EUIA)are also likely to back a referendum. With the combined Anti vote PPC ,PSC, Cs .likely to get under a combined total of under 50 seats.
68 seats needed for a majority
DatePoll sourceCiUPSCPPCICV-EUiAERCC'sOthers / undecidedMargin
18 NovemberSEGRE
60–64

16–19

18–21

11–13

12–16

8–11

0–3
14–16 NovemberCrònica.cat
63–64

18–19

16–17

12

14–15

5

5
13–16 NovemberSigma Dos36.6%
60–63
15.3%
21–23
13.8%
20–21
8.1%
10–12
9.5%
14
4.5%
5
12.2%
0–2
21.3
13–16 NovemberGESOP38.0%
62–64
12.0%
15–17
11.6%
15–17
9.8%
13–14
12.8%
19–20

6–7

0–2
25.2
12–16 NovemberDYM39.6%
60–62
13.2%
17
14.0%
18
8.3%
9–10
12.5%
18
4.4%
6
8.0%
4–7
25.6
12–16 NovemberFeedback
62–64

17–19

16–18

13–16

14–15

7–8

0–2
8–15 NovemberMetroscopia37.3%
62
12.3%
18
13.2%
19
7.9%
10
12.2%
18
5.7%
6
11.4%
2
24.1
6–9 NovemberFeedback40.0%
64–66
12.0%
16–18
12.3%
17–18
10.2%
12–13
10.9%
15–17
7.0%
7–8
7.6%
0
27.7
30 October–2 NovemberFeedback39.7%
64–65
13.1%
18
12.7%
17–19
10.7%
14
10.1%
14–15
5.4%
6–7
8.3%
0
26.6
29 October–2 NovemberCrònica.cat
66

17

18

12–13

14–15

3

4–5
29 October–1 NovemberGESOP39.5%
63–65
13.0%
18–20
12.0%
17–18
9.0%
11–12
11.0%
17–18
5.5%
5–7
10.0%
0–1
26.5
22–30 OctoberCEO43.4%
69–71
12.0%
15
12.5%
18–19
8.0%
10
9.5%
14
5.1%
6
9.5%
0–3
30.9
9–29 OctoberCIS36.8%
63–64
12.9%
19
11.0%
16–17
8.1%
11
11.1%
17
6.0%
7
14.1%
1
23.9
25–26 OctoberAra39.0%
64–66
13.3%
19–21
12.9%
19–20
8.0%
9–12
11.2%
16–18
5.0%
5–6
10.6%
0
25.7
22–26 OctoberFeedback40.9%
65–66
13.4%
18
11.4%
17
10.1%
12–13
10.6%
16
5.6%
6
8.0%
0
27.5
18–22 OctoberGESOP39.1%
64–65
14.0%
20–21
11.5%
15–16
9.4%
13–14
10.2%
15–16
5.0%
5–6
10.8%
0
25.1
15–19 OctoberFeedback40.7%
67
15.0%
21
12.2%
17
9.6%
12
9.7%
14
4.2%
4
8.6%
0
25.7
8–11 OctoberFeedback43.2%
68–69
15.2%
20–21
12.0%
17–18
8.6%
10–11
9.3%
13
3.1%
3
8.6%
0–4
28.0
30 September–1 OctoberGESOP41.0%
64–65
14.5%
20–21
9.9%
12–13
7.7%
10
11.3%
17–18
5.0%
5
10.6%
5–6
26.5
29 SeptemberNC Report
[Note 1]
35.6%
58–59
16.6%
24–25
13.4%
20
8.9%
12
9.0%
14
3.5%
3
13.0%
3
19.0
26–28 SeptemberSigma Dos39.2%
64–65
16.9%
24–25
12.8%
18–20
8.5%
11
8.2%
12
3.3%
3
11.1%
0–2
22.3
21–27 SeptemberFeedback43.0%
66–67
15.7%
21
11.8%
15–16
9.6%
12
10.1%
13
3.6%
4
6.2%
3
27.3
16 SeptemberTelecinco
58–60

23–25

15–16

12–13

17–19

3–4

4–5
15 SeptemberNC Report
[Note 1]
36.8%
58–62
15.4%
22–25
13.2%
20
8.7%
11
9.5%
15
3.7%
3–4
12.7%
3
21.4
23 JulyAra34.5%
55–57
16.6%
26–28
11.2%
16–17
9.7%
11–13
9.9%
15–16
3.4%
0–3
14.7%
0–4
17.9
4–18 JuneCEO36.2%
60
16.4%
24–25
10.5%
15–16
9.5%
12–13
9.7%
15–16
3.7%
3–4
14.0%
0–4
19.8
30 May–7 JuneFeedback37.9%
58–60
17.7%
26–28
11.8%
16
9.9%
13
9.3%
15
3.2%
3
10.2%
1–3
20.2
7–9 MayGESOP33.9%
56–57
18.4%
28–29
10.2%
13–14
9.7%
13
10.6%
17–18
4.5%
5
12.7%
0
15.5
6–21 FebruaryCEO37.0%
62–63
16.5%
25–26
11.7%
18–19
8.1%
10–11
9.6%
14–15
4.0%
3–4
13.1%
0
20.5
16–19 JanuaryGESOP35.2%
62–63
16.9%
27–28
10.5%
14–15
8.6%
12–13
9.0%
13–14
3.8%
4
16.0%
0
18.3
2012
27–28 DecemberFeedback38.5%
61–62
16.9%
25
12.2%
19
10.0%
13–14
9.8%
15
2.1%
0–2
10.5%
0
21.6
20 November 2011General Election
(seat extrapolation)
29.4%
(46)
26.7%
(38)
20.7%
(31)
8.1%
(10)
7.1%
(10)
N/A8.0%
(0)
2.7
19–21 JuneGESOP36.7%
62–63
17.5%
27–28

19–20

11–12
6.5%
8–9

3

0–4
19.2
2011
28 November 2010Election Results38.4%
62
18.4%
28
12.4%
18
7.4%
10
7.0%
10
3.4%
3
13.0%
4
20.0


Indeed the Unionist vote seems to have drifted to the The Citizens – Party of the Citizenry which describes itself as centre-left and non-nationalist, although in fact it is a Spanish nationalist party.Which opposes even the extent of autonomy Catalans now enjoy. They are likely to increase their seats but not to an influential extent

The Guardian continues 

A recent survey by Catalan government-funded research group CEO predicts 57% of Catalans would vote to break away from Spain. However, the central government has said a referendum in the rich but indebted region would be unconstitutional, and the constitutional court in Madrid blocked a move to hold a similar vote in the northern Basque country as recently as 2008.
Can Spain really Bloc the democratic wishes of the Catalan people? Will they physically prevent a referndum  as some Madrid politician seem to be suggesting? read here
.
The Guardian  continue.....
Another potential stumbling block for a separation has been raised by doubts over whether an independent Catalonia could remain in theEuropean Union. When asked on Saturday at the Iberoamerican summit held in Cádiz, European commission president José Manuel Barroso replied that the bloc would stand by rules drawn up in 2004, ie states that secede would have to apply for membership.
"The legal situation has not changed since 2004. The Lisbon treaty has not introduced any modifications in that respect," he said
He doesn't say whether what remains of Spain will have to also apply for membership? But sureley the indication is that they would.

Indeed Barroso  is playing a dangerous game throughout Europe the EU is not actually the most popular Institution at the moment and Euro-Scepticism  is on the rise  (Though I haven't succumbed yet).

The thought that they may have to reapply and get a better deal from Europe might well be an encouragement for Catalans and it may be something the SNP might consider  a slogan

Vote Yes for a better deal with Europe

 might just have some effect,







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