Monday, 2 January 2012

National Left looks into his Crystal Ball

Here are my predictions for 2012

Labour
The Party can expect to make major gains next tear wining control of Torfaen, Blaneau Gwent, Newport Brigend, Merthyr Tydfil and Caerphilly.Indeed failure do so might prove a disappointed.This could be matched by becoming  the largest party in Cardiff and Swansea even having small majorities in one of these.In the Welsh assembly, they will continue to carry on without an overall majority at least until after the May election when they may seek to bring the Libdems into coalition.

They will however continue a Laissez-faire policy making only small policy initiatives whilst blaming Central government.,

Any discontent amongst Labour AM's  will only appear if and when the Libdems joined them. When those realising a Ministeral post will not be coming  to them will start to speak out. Some will take a call for more devolution even Parity with Scotland  others will rake up a fundamentalist Unionist stance 



Conservatives.


It will be steady as it goes for the Conservatives . In May they may even increase their total  number of seats at the expense of the LibDems. But may lose overall control of Monmouth and even more likely Vale of Glamorgan.


Cheryl Gillian will lose her cabinet post as secretary of State for Wales to Clwyd West MP  David Jones or the post will be abolished.


The Conservatives in the Assembly  will take up a more Devo-sceptic position which whilst not provoking a split lead to the likes of David Melding from his safe  position as  Deputy Presiding Office increasingly distancing himself from the polices of his leader.


Liberal Democrats


Will have a very hard time in May will lose over 50 seats and and will be lucky to not to lose 70.

They will enter negotiations on forming a coalition with Labour after May realising that it the only way they can maintain a profile in Welsh politics.

Peter Black will make at least one ridiculous statement a week on his blog and will be shirty with those who point out his cant claiming that the  are being "repetitive or off subject".


Plaid Cymru.


The Party with the most interesting and challenging year a head of them.


Elin Jones will win the leadership contest . Though Leanne Wood will make a strong challenge (and might just win it).

Depending on how much the contest invigorates the Blaid . May will see the part lossing out to Labour in the East but gaining a comfortable Majority on Gwynedd. possibly gaining Ceredigion  and whilst it may lose some seats to Labour in Carmarthen this will be of-set  by gains from Independents.


Sport


The Welsh Rugby team will  will win the 6 nations in 2012 but alas no Grand Slam

Swansea will survive their first season in the premiership . Cardiff will make the champions league play off and join them.
The GB football (Under 23's)  in the Olympics will be an embarrassment and will be quickly forgotten and never proposed again.
The overall medals won by British athletes will exceed Beijing but the number of Golds will be less.
Glamorgan will have an average Cricket season.


Royality



The Jubilee will reach a level of sycophancy of a North Korean state funeral. Republicans will be ignored and marginalised .

There will be no announcement of a pregnancy as nothing will be allowed to divert attention from the Queen this year.




1 comment:

  1. I hope you're wrong on Elin Jones. Not the right choice, not the right personality. She certainly won't galvanise me.

    ReplyDelete