Saturday, 20 August 2011

Can this be why Cameron and the Tories opposed AV?

Before I began I must admit to taking the information fro Britain Votes and Better Nation. I hope they will forgive me for borrowing their info.

 On Thursday there was an by-lection  for  Edinburgh City Council, City Centre . The last election which was held under STV  resulted in the following 1st round preference votes.
 SNP 20.4%
Con 20.2%
LD 19.9% 
Lab 18%
Grn 17%
SSP 1.8%
Ind) 1.6%
Lib) 1%

After the Elimination counts with he Lib Dem Charles Dundas being elected first (taking most of the Green votes)   – with the SNP’s David Beckett elected next, and the Tories’ Joanna Mowat only returned once  Labour  were eliminated  in the last round.

So Thursday  byelection was also under the same rules as STV though you can argue it co responded to an Election under AV. The SNP who had hekd the seat were somewhat at a disadvantage because the former councillor David Beckett had done a Adam Price and resigned his council  seat to attend a course at Harvard   (prehaps they will meet up?) and there might have been a bit of resentment from a electorate who felt they had been snubbed.

Any way the voting went as follows  turn out was 23.4%
 
Round 1
Con 837 (24.2% + 4.0)
 SNP 797 (23.1 +2.6)
 Lab 682 (19.7 +1.7)
 Green 494 (14.3 -2.7)
 Ind 394 (11.4 +9.8)
LD 251 (eliminated) (251 -12.6)

Round 2
Con 904 (67 votes from LDs)
SNP 825 (28 votes from LDs)
Lab 716 (34 votes from LDs)
Green 576 (82 votes from LDs)
Ind 402 (8 votes from LDs) (eliminated

)

Round 3
Con 1043 (139 votes from Ind)
SNP 893 (68 votes from Ind)
Lab 745 (29 votes from Ind)
 Green 635 (59 votes from Ind) (eliminated)


Round 4
Con 1110 (67 votes from Greens)
SNP 1084 (191 votes from Greens)
Lab 968 (223 votes from Greens) (eliminated)


Round 5
SNP 1368 (284 votes from Labour) – ELECTED
Con 1264 (154 votes from Labour)


So the Tories has  led in most of the counts and had received  more second preference votes from the Independent . Failed to win the seat at the last hurdle . When the majority Labour prefernce voter went to the SNP.

What can we read from this not to much  .

That the Libdem vote collapsed  is clear and the fact that the majority of twhat must be a hardcore of Liberl Democrat  loyalist second preference  went to the Greens. Which may result in some gains for the latter next may.
A surprising large percentage of Labours preferences went to the Tories.
It would have been intresting to see what the SNP second preferences were?
But the real question might be can the Tories win a election under these rules (ie virtual AV)? and could it be the reason why they where so vehement against AV. Whould the anybody but a Tory (ABAT) result in them being wiped out particularly at local level?


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