Queen's Speech to reverse Labour's Gerrymandering?

Today's Queen Speech is expected to announce that the Government  intend to reverse the 2006 Government of Wales Act decision to prevent Candidates from standing  on both the Constituency list and the top up regional list.

It  was a piece of Labour Gerrymandering intent on preventing senior opposition leaders who failed to get elected  by the First Past the Post System getting another chance via the regional list.

To be fair Labour had a point  In the 2003 election . Three of the defeated candidates , Brynle, Williams, Janet Ryder and Elaenor Burnaham

Welsh Assembly Election 2003: Clwyd West
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Alun Pugh	7,693	34.8	+3.8
	Conservative	Brynle Williams	7,257	32.8	+4.8
	Plaid Cymru	Janet Ryder	4,715	21.3	−6.0
	Liberal Democrats	Eleanor Burnham	1,743	7.9	−5.8
	UKIP	Peter Murray	715	3.2	N/A
Majority			436	2.0	−1.0
Turnout			22,123	40.6	−6.5
	Labour hold		Swing	−0.5

The argument that this made a mockery of the Electoral System had merit t. But it must also be considered that Labout , who have dominated the the constituencies in living memory in UK parliamentary election  and heave no real need to ensure top people are elected by the list system. . Which is demonsreared by the fact have never had more than 2 seats from the regional lists.

But the argument would hold water if Labour had also introduced the changes in Scotland which was odd since  they tended not to use the regional list to give their candidates a "Second bite at the Cherry" . Though they may regret this as they lost Constituency MSP to the SNP and had to themselves rely on the top up system where the candidates may not be of the same standard a the defeated experienced constituency member. 

The fact that it was implemented in Scotland is sure proof that Labour were using a measure in Wales that came from Westminster and not the Assembly itself even though it may have had a point is clear that was a clear piece of Gerrymandering aimed at reducing the quality of the opposition members.

Actually to a large extent it didn't work only a few like Helen Mary Jones  in 2011 who would have been returned via the top up after being defeated at Llanelli  were probably be really missed from the assembly.

For Plaid Leanne Wood who had announced that she was prepared to gamble on fighting the Rhondda seat   it means she can chose to stand once again on the list and virtually making sure of her election.

So Plaid are not set to lose their Queen in  the next Assembly Election in  2016 . Though Labour may make much of this.

Of course the whole problem  of a Democratic Deficit would  be solved if the STV was adopted for 2016 .

 There's still time.

Peter Black On Welsh Elections? No Cat Café in London.

I  thought I'd have a look at what a Peter Black would take  on last weeks local government elections?

Peter Black six years of trivia mixed with occasional insights

So what has Peter  been Blogging about since Thursday.

A thoughtful Piece on Friday on his concerns about a private company targeting the Swansea area with the single measles vaccine and in particular the fact that their website continues to link MMR with autism despite that fact that there is no evidence for that claim.  Which is well worth reading. 

Om Saturday  he was telling us The Daily Post "carries an interesting article today about a particularly embarrassing gaffe on the part of contractors at the headquarters of Flintshire County Council. It transpires that in marking out spaces for Councillors in the car park they spelt the word with only one" '.

On Sunday he  did mention that Thursday's local election results "may have been difficult for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats and a triumph for UKIP (no matter how over-hyped at the time and since) " but concentrated on Labour spending plans.

Today he regales us with a story about  Britain's first cat café is set to open in London

Now there's nothing wrong with a bit of  occasional trivia  amongst the doom and gloom, but for a senior Welsh politician to fail to mention the results in the elections held in Wales.

Peter fails to report on the Liberal Democrats stunning success on wining one seat on Anglesey.

But seeing that the Association of Liberal Democrat Councilors had named him as their contact point for the  Llangewedd and Brynhyfryd by election in Bridgend he doesn't seem to have time to tell us the result.

NAMES OF CANDIDATES ENWAU’R YMGEISWYR		Number of votes recorded Pleidleisiau a fwriwyd (Elected: (E) ) (Etholwyd: (E) )
NAME / ENW Description / Disgrifiad
BERROW Tony	Welsh Liberal Democrat		143
DAVIES Siân	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales		34
HUGHES Eric	Independent		66
LEWIS Clare Joyce	Welsh Conservative Party Candidate		44
SMITH Charles Emrys	Welsh Labour/Llafur Cymru	E	281

He could have commented on Plaid coming last and comparing that with Anglesey claiming that Plaid don't tel us bad election results. But Peter doesn't seem to want to tel us anything about Welsh Elections.

We can only await his next Blog for his next insight into the politics of our nation with baited breath.

Are Plaid Failing to Capitlise On Anglesey Success?

Over at Click on Wales David Taylor i a former Labour election strategist and special adviser to former Welsh secretary Peter Hain. has an interesting take on the  Anglesey Elections in that he appears to be criticising Plaid  for not making more of their very god result in the Anglesey council  elections

He writes that:

There is talk now of a Plaid-Labour coalition, I hope this can happen. New leadership is in the interests of Anglesey, it’s difficult to see how real progress can be made for as long as the independents remain in control.
Plaid have doubled their number of councillors – a good result by any measure. In fact, it’s their best result anywhere in Wales for several years and is a welcome boost for the leadership of Leanne Wood, perhaps Wales’s most underestimated politician. But its baffling that some senior figures in her party seem to be passing up the opportunity to talk up their success.

Before you point out that Plaid number of Councilors went up from 8 to 12 I think David is using the nominal formula .which takes into account the reduction of seats from 40 to 30.

However does he have a point?

I would have liked to see more mention on the news reports especially from the BC extensive coverage . Which they kept telling us that thus May elections were in England and "Wales " and then totally consecrated on the elections in England  and joined in the rest of the London Media's new love affair with Ukip.

David Taylor seems to think that Plaid should ignore these elections though.

'........Instead Jonathan Edwards MP, one the party’s principal spokespeople (a member of the leadership team, no less) yesterday chose to detract from their Anglesey success with his own fanciful interpretation of UKIP’s surge in England. Edwards is a talented politician but is prone to letting his wishful thinking cloud his judgement. To dismiss UKIP as merely an English problem, “alien to [Wales's] political tradition” is not only untrue (polls show support for UKIP in Wales as strong as in many parts of England), it’s also extraordinarily bad politics as comments like this will succeed only in driving more Welsh voters to UKIP ahead of the European elections next year.

Quite frankly portraying Ukip  as Little Englanders  looks like a worth while strategy . Ukip were totally rejected in the Anglesey and I see no reason why Plaid don't try to make the connection.

But David Taylor's article looks like a case of "Damming With Faint Praise".

Claiming Plaid for the media to point out their success is ridiculous .

BBC Wales for instance keeps giving the impression that the 14 Independents are a group where in truth  as Syniadau points out .in a reply. This is far fro the truth'

In the old council  the "Original Independents" did act as a group, and the other independents described themselves as "Unaffiliated". Only 6 of the 19 "Original Independents" have been re-elected, together with 3 of the 5 "Unaffiliated" independents. There are 5 newly elected independents.

It would not  have been difficult for any competent political journalist to divide them up in  properly and give a true impression.

Unless all these Independents now get together  which giving their past seems unlikely .Plaid are the largest group on the council ( The first time for a political party?)

All the Party press releases mean nothing if they are spiked by some Editor .

If David Taylor thinks that Plaid's remarkable gains on Anglesey really need to be brought  to prominence  he should direct his criticisn at the BBC in particular.

Plaid have nothing to Môn about.

One of the things that may emerge from yesterdays result is Ukip may well be seen as purely an English party from now on.

They mat have made impressive gains in the Elections over the Border but in the election held ion The Island of Anglesey council they barely surfaced.

Election results by party

Party name	Seats won	% of votes
Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	12	32%
Annibynnol / Independent	9	20%
Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru	3	17%
Independent	2	5%
Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru	1	5%
Independent / Annibynnol	1	3%
Annibynnol	1	2%
	1	1%
UK Independence Party / Plaid Annibyniaeth y DU	0	7%
Welsh Conservative Party Candidate/Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru	0	6%
Turnout:		51%

The result could be that the three Labour Members become power brokers but the alternative to becoming coalition partners with Plaid would mean al the 14 Independents would have to come together and since it has been them who have been fighting like Kilkenny Cats over the last number of years it seems to be unlikely unless there's a stop Plaid move. 

The problems on the council had led to led to the boundaries redrawn and the number of councillors  reduced to 30 .

Previously   there had been 40 distributed with consideration of the vagaries of Independent affiliations thus.

Group affiliation[6]		Members
	Original Independent	14
	Plaid Cymru	8
	Labour	5
	Llais i Fôn	5
	Unaffiliated	8
Total		40

 I don't know what the current crop of Independents  stand . But it does look like Plaid who made a remarkable 4 gains despite the reduction of 10 seats will lead the council.

You can forgive the London media when they are drooling over Ukips surge but the Welsh media should be pointing out this was a very good result for Plaid.and their Leader who had used the Menai bridge as a backdrop for her last political broadcast.

Not so good was the byelection  on Caerphilly Council where Plaid failed to exploit the recent troubles of the ruling Labour party

CAERPHILY BOUROUGH COUNCIL: RISCA EAST.

Candidate	Party	Votes
Cliff EDWARDS	Independent	209
Matthew FARRELL	Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales	119
Philippa LEONARD	Welsh Labour/Llafur Cymru	529 - ELECTED
Cameron MUIR-JONES	Welsh Conservative Party Candidate Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru	36
Bob OWEN	Independent	299

It was also Labour who  swept home in Bridgend despite Peter Black heavily involved in the Liberal Democrats

BRIDGEND COUNTY BOROUGH COUNCIL\; LLANGEWYDD & BRYNHYFRYD ELECTORAL DIVISION

NAMES OF CANDIDATES ENWAU’R YMGEISWYR		Number of votes recorded Pleidleisiau a fwriwyd (Elected: (E) ) (Etholwyd: (E) )
NAME / ENW Description / Disgrifiad
BERROW Tony	Welsh Liberal Democrat		143
DAVIES Siân	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales		34
HUGHES Eric	Independent		66
LEWIS Clare Joyce	Welsh Conservative Party Candidate		44
SMITH Charles Emrys	Welsh Labour/Llafur Cymru	E	281

So Plaid make a significant  move forward on Anglesey but Labour seemed dominant.in the South. .

Though the two by-elections were not in Wards where Plaid had much success and we may have to wait for a by-election in a marginal ward to see the true position.

Labour turn to Torygraph for Unionist claptrap.

The Torygraph  (as Private eye always cal the Telegraph) has come up wit the news that 

 The United Kingdom could be viewed on the world stage as a “power in irreversible decline” if Scotland votes for independence next year, a report by senior MPs has warned today.

They say

The Commons Foreign Affairs Committee concluded that even the Special Relationship with the US could be harmed if a separate Scotland makes good its threat to remove the Trident nuclear deterrent from its waters.Countries hostile to the UK would also seek to exploit the damage to Britain’s reputation and “soft power”, the report said, for example by lobbying for the UK to no longer be permanent member of the UN Security Council.The UK’s influence in the EU would also be eroded, the committee said, although the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) could limit the fallout from a ‘yes’ vote by starting to brief other countries now about the impact.However, the study also warned Scots that independence would not mean them having more weight on the world stage, even going as far as calling the concept of a separate Scottish foreign policy a “misnomer”.They would be forced to tailor their actions to suit the British as they would remain dependent on the rest of the UK (RUK) for their security and intelligence, the MPs said.

  Simon Johnson, Scottish Political Editor Daily Telegraph May 1st 2013

The Torygraph of course  and a large number of Unionist Mps still believes that Britain ( They would prefer that to the UK) still had a Empire, and wasn't a member of the EU therefore having absolutely no influence in Europe.


The report continues

Despite the rest of the UK being viewed internationally as the “continuing state”, the MPs concluded that “some degree of reputational damage is inevitable”.
In particular, “RUK’s relationship with its key allies and traditional defence partners, including its privileged relationship with the US” would be scrutinised and reviewed.
The harm would be particularly significant if the remainder of the UK did not maintain the Trident nuclear deterrent, which experts have warned would be extremely difficult to move from Scotland.
Any deterioration in such relationships “could serve to fuel the views of some states that the RUK was a power in irreversible decline,” the MPs concluded.

 Simon Johnson, Scottish Political Editor Daily Telegraph  1st May 2013

"RUK" ? Is that what the Unionist think the new state of England, Wales and Northern Ireland should be called.?

There is no special relationship between the UK and USA its simply that of a Owner and thier poodle . They may be reasonably  fond of their pet but would take sown the Vet to put it down and get a new one . Without too many tears.

The Torygraph sems to  appointed itself the voice of the Unionist  as it reports today )May 3rd) that

SNP 'set on smearing opponents in independence debate'

Douglas Alexander, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, will accuse the Nationalists of engaging in the “systematic denigration of fellow Scots” by treating them as personal “enemies” instead of political opponents.He will cite the “hate-filled outpouring” directed at Susan Calman, a Scottish comedian who received death threats and vile abuse on the internet this week after mocking the referendum during a radio appearance.However, Mr Alexander will argue that this “politics of personal destruction” extends beyond the army of so-called ‘Cybernats’, who dish out insults online, to the SNP’s most senior figures.

  Simon Johnson, Scottish Political Editor Daily Telegraph  3rd May 2013

Perhaps the Headline should read:

Wasp accuses Bee of Stinging  Him.

It does rather look like the Unionist  are in the words of the immortal Willie John MCbride "getting thy retaliation in first.

Yes there may have been some appalling behavior by some nutters on the Unionist side including the idiotic attacks on Susan Calman . "But how many Scottish Nationalist and Yes supporters have been attacked in a similar vein.

If Douglas Alexander is to accuse the SNP of being responsible for these attacks . Does he accept that Better Together are responsible for similar comments from the Unionist side.

Whose smearing who?

Perhaps he should also look at where his major support his coming from and the irony of  Labour Shadow Minister being so well reported in the Torygraph?

Coup Threat On Cardiff Council

Almost exactly a year after winning a landslide victory on Cardiff council  which saw Labour make 33 gains and decimate the other parties . There appears to be an imminent coup on Wales' Largest Council.

Cardiff Council Election 2012[4]
Party		Seats	Gains	Losses	Net gain/loss	Seats %	Votes %	Votes	+/−
	Labour	46	33		+33	61.3
	Liberal Democrat	16		18	-18	21.3
	Conservative	7	1	10	-9	9.3
	Plaid Cymru	2		4	-4	2.6
	Independent	4		2	-2	5.3

The Labour leader says of the  council says she “won’t lay down and die easily” if, as expected, a leadership challenge is mounted against her next week.
According to Wales Online

The name of a candidate to run against Councillor Heather Joyce will be announced on Monday, sources in the ruling Labour group yesterday told the Echo.
It’s widely known the 46 Labour councillors are divided in two camps and it’s thought just a couple of votes could decide the contest.
The vote will take place at the Labour group’s annual general meeting on May 13. A challenger from is also expected to run against the council’s deputy leader Ralph Cook.
If a new leader is elected, they have the power to handpick a new cabinet, potentially casting doubt on the policies and priorities of Wales’ biggest local authority.
Rebel Labour backbenchers have for months said they are frustrated at not being kept informed and involved in decision-making by cabinet members.
Asked yesterday if she believed she still had the support of all members of her group, Coun Joyce said:

“We are a very large group and a very diverse group. A lot of them are young, they are ambitious and they did not come into this job for cuts.
“It’s been difficult for them, but I admire the spirit in them and challenge is good, there is nothing wrong with challenging decisions.

I bet she thinks that 

Clearly a landslide has not helped Heather Joyce  as it allows people who are not given any cabinet ot other positions to brood on the backbenches.

It may be simply an opportunity for some councilors to claim they are fighting the cuts from within the ruling party.

Of course some might see the dead hand of Éminence grise Russel Goodway but I doubt he has a role in this. Though he may be waiting to see the result. and biding his time.

We will have to wait to see who the challenger who must have already been sounding out support is.

But it looks like if Councillor Joyce will be damaged if there is vote of over 10 of her colleagues against her.

But even if she survives. Will the rebels still follow the whip or consider defecting?

Heather Joyce, may be wishing that the much celebrated by her party regaining  of Cardiff only a year ago with  a 15 seat majority may not have been so emphatic.

Lions Squad: Why is the main story Jonny Wilkinson ?

The Lions squad threw up little surprises after the comprehensive defeat of Wales in the final match of the six nations. The largest contingent was always going to come from Wales  followed by England.

Maybe the exclusion of England Captain Chris Robshaw and the exclusion of Irish hooker Rory Best was a shock and Scotland probably deserved to see more than three players on tour.

But for the London media the big story was that Jonny Wilkinson will not touring with the British and Irish Lions.

I turned to teletext just after 1am to find the squad after being frustrated that the BBC roiling news had not gone live .

But all I got for ages, was the announcement that Wilkinson who had not figured in the English side was omitted .

Only later it emerged that he had ruled himself out.

 Gatland said: 

“I asked Jonny if he could tour and he said he wasn’t available.
“I wouldn’t have made the phone call if it wasn’t to offer him a place on the tour.
“I told him that we wanted ­everyone on the tour to be on the plane to Hong Kong. He couldn’t make that commitment because he’s committed to Toulon.
“He appreciated the call but he said he’s struggling with his body and managing himself week to week. I think physically he would struggle to do a tour.

“He was honest about himself and said, ‘I’m hanging on with my fingernails here at the moment and I probably need ­another operation’.”

Quite frankly I find with Sexton and Farrell the first choice for Ireland and England respectively. I would have thought Gatland would have taken a utility back like James Hook (but not necessarily hum) rather than a third fly half anyway.  

Mind you if any of the two are injured it might be easier for Gatland to contact the Welsh side touring Japan for any replacement.

We all would have picked a different squad but on balance Gatland got it about right . Its a pity the BBC and the rest of the media led with the story of the absence  of Wilkinson ( who I regard as one of the great Fly halves).  Who was not available any way,

Lions squad for 2013 tour

Backs: Leigh Halfpenny (Wales), Stuart Hogg (Scotland), Rob Kearney (Ireland), Tommy Bowe (Ireland), Alex Cuthbert (Wales), Sean Maitland (Scotland), George North (Wales), Jonathan Davies (Wales), Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland), Jamie Roberts (Wales), Manu Tuilagi (England), Owen Farrell (England), Jonathan Sexton (Ireland), Conor Murray (Ireland), Mike Phillips (Wales), Ben Youngs (England).

Forwards: Dan Cole (England), Cian Healy (Ireland), Gethin Jenkins (Wales), Adam Jones (Wales), Matt Stevens (England), Mako Vunipola (England), Dylan Hartley (England), Richard Hibbard (Wales), Tom Youngs (England), Ian Evans (Wales), Richie Gray (Scotland), Alun-Wyn Jones (Wales), Paul O'Connell (Ireland), Geoff Parling (England), Tom Croft (England), Toby Faletau (Wales), Jamie Heaslip (Ireland), Dan Lydiate (Wales), Sean O'Brien (Ireland), Justin Tipuric (Wales), Sam Warburton (Wales).