I never ever fail to be amazed by political pundits , who are so Anglo-Centric that they incompletely fail to see that there has been a political revolution in Scotland , and that it might even reverberate here in Wales.
Political Betting has an article from someone called Stodge. asking “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”
Who ever Stodge is he or she needs to look again at a map of the UK general Election.
Such Maps van be deceiving , even when the Tories lose as there a many rural seats (particularly in the South of England that are rural seats which could contain many urban seats and even under the 1997 (seems only yesterday) the extent of the Tory whitewash os disguised somewhat
Bur "Stodge" writes
The SNP won 48/59 seats in Scotland and that includes the major cities.
In Northern Ireland Nationalist Parties for the first time won more seats that the Unionists and whilst here in Wales there was undoubtedly a major Tory advancement Labour still won way over 50% of the seats with 41% of the vote.
Incidentally why don't pundits who point out that the SNP won many more seats that the 45% of the vote under proportional representation mention Wales?
Nevertheless Stodge (in what is an apt name) continues to ignore , the reality beyond the Tory-Labour ,battleground in England.
If "Stodge" was writing about the politics of England after Scotland and ( maybe Wales ) leave the Union, then he or she probably has a point , but please could the next pundit look beyond could they at least acknowledge that in Scotland , the dynamics are very different.
Political Betting has an article from someone called Stodge. asking “Is Britain Now a One-Party State?”
Who ever Stodge is he or she needs to look again at a map of the UK general Election.
Such Maps van be deceiving , even when the Tories lose as there a many rural seats (particularly in the South of England that are rural seats which could contain many urban seats and even under the 1997 (seems only yesterday) the extent of the Tory whitewash os disguised somewhat
Bur "Stodge" writes
,But Stodge is only talking about England
The SNP won 48/59 seats in Scotland and that includes the major cities.
In Northern Ireland Nationalist Parties for the first time won more seats that the Unionists and whilst here in Wales there was undoubtedly a major Tory advancement Labour still won way over 50% of the seats with 41% of the vote.
Incidentally why don't pundits who point out that the SNP won many more seats that the 45% of the vote under proportional representation mention Wales?
Wales
After 40 of 40 seats
-
22-6
-
14+6
-
4+0
Nevertheless Stodge (in what is an apt name) continues to ignore , the reality beyond the Tory-Labour ,battleground in England.
The campaign made no difference – once Johnson had sealed the Conservative leadership election thanks to the ComRes poll published on June 11th the rest was inevitable. He was able to eliminate the existential threat of the Brexit Party and harnessed the above factions into a clear majority.
All else was obfuscation.
The 2020s (well, at least the first half) belong to the Conservatives and by 2024 they will have been in power for 14 years. History tells us nothing lasts forever and physics tells us what goes up must eventually come down so the Conservative vote share, which has risen inexorably from its 1997-2001 nadir back to levels surpassing the Thatcher high water marks of the 1980s, will one day fall back.
Yet will that “fall” be a brief hiatus or a meaningful change in voting patterns? Many seem to assume once Brexit has been delivered or “done” to use the vernacular, everyone will go back to old allegiances assuming nothing had ever happened. I’m less convinced.
It could be that while the apparent lack of a credible alternative continues, the Conservatives, rather like the Mexican PRI or the LDP in Japan, will continue to be in Government, periodically changing its leader and direction while retaining the reins of Government. After all, who would have conceived after her third successive election victory that Margaret Thatcher would be ousted by her own MPs but that even with that shattering event, the Conservatives would win another election and remain in power for another six and a half years?
Perhaps such a fate will befall Johnson – one thing is clear, the moment he looks like a loser his days will be numbered especially if A.N Other, S.O Else or Rishi Sunak start looking like winners.
How then does the Conservative giant get toppled? One thought is if you are going to campaign against Johnson you have to re-discover the art of being happy. Miserable realism butters no parsnips against unyielding optimism – Johnson won the UK in 2019 the same way he won London in 2008 – by being relentlessly upbeat and offering a positive message for people tired of downbeat negativity.
Sometimes it’s the message but more often it’s the messenger. Making someone feel happy and good about themselves and their country is far more effective than telling an unvarnished negative truth.
Indeed, just telling someone “it’s going to be all right” is a pretty strong message. “Get Brexit Done” resonated simply because it offered an end to deadlock and drift. As a message it leaves far more questions than answers but tired and frustrated people are always willing to take a leap of faith even if they know not where it will take them.
If "Stodge" was writing about the politics of England after Scotland and ( maybe Wales ) leave the Union, then he or she probably has a point , but please could the next pundit look beyond could they at least acknowledge that in Scotland , the dynamics are very different.
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