Sunday 15 December 2019

In 2010 the SNP won six seats and some of them are now Tory.

For those of us in Wales  who longingly look at the dominance of the SNP throughout Scotland, it may be that we should realise that only 10 year ago they held  only six seats in the UK Parliament and even mote so in what was a landslide in Scotland some of their original seats are now held by the Tories

Banff and Buchan Alex Salmond's old seat for instance
2010 general election: Banff and Buchan[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
SNPEilidh Whiteford15,86841.3−9.9
ConservativeJimmy Buchan11,84130.8+11.4
LabourGlen Reynolds5,38214.0+2.0
Liberal DemocratsGalen Milne4,36511.3−2.0
BNPRichard Payne1,0102.6N/A
Majority4,02712.5-19.3
Turnout38,46659.8+3.2
SNP hold
2019 general election: Banff and Buchan [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
ConservativeDavid Duguid21,18250.1+2.2
SNPPaul Robertson17,06440.4+1.3
Liberal DemocratsAlison Smith2,2805.4+1.9
LabourBrian Balcombe1,7344.1-5.3
Majority4,1189.7+0.8
Turnout42,35663.4+1.8
Conservative holdSwin


And Moray
General election 2015: Moray[6][7]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
SNPAngus Robertson24,38449.5+9.8
ConservativeDouglas Ross15,31931.1+5.0
LabourSean Morton4,8989.9−7.1
UKIPRobert Scorer1,9393.9+1.3
Liberal DemocratsJamie Paterson1,3952.8−11.7
Scottish GreenJames MacKessack-Leitch1,3452.7N/A
Majority9,06518.4+4.8
Turnout49,28068.7+6.5
SNP holdSwing+2.4

General election 2019: Moray[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
ConservativeDouglas Ross22,11245.3-2.3
SNPLaura Mitchell21,59944.2+5.4
LabourJo Kirby2,4325.0-6.0
Liberal DemocratsFiona Campbell-Trevor2,2694.6+2.4
UKIPRob Scorer4130.8+0.8
Majority4131.1-7.6
Turnout
Conservative holdSwing


Today the shift has gone from the old strongholds where the SNP benefited not only  from a traditional Independence culture but also an Anti-Tory Vote to  the former Labour Strongholds  like  Glasgow North East

General election 2010: Glasgow North East[12][13][14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourWillie Bain20,10068.3N/A
SNPBilly McAllister4,15814.1-3.6
Liberal DemocratsEileen Baxendale2,2627.7N/A
ConservativeRuth Davidson1,5695.3N/A
BNPWalter Hamilton7982.7-0.5
TUSCGraham Campbell1870.6N/A
Scottish SocialistKevin McVey1790.6-4.3
Socialist LabourJim Berrington1560.5-13.7
Majority15,94254.2+18.5
Turnout29,40949.1+3.3
Labour gain from SpeakerSwing+7.4
General election 2019: Glasgow North East[5]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
SNPAnne McLaughlin15,91146.9+4.7
Labour Co-opPaul Sweeney13,36339.2-3.5
ConservativeLauren Bennie3,55810.5-2.4
Liberal DemocratsNicolas Moohan1,0393.2+1.2
Majority2,4587.2N/A
Turnout33,92555.5+2.5
SNP gain from Labour Co-opSwing4.74%

To Edingburgh South West, where Joanna Cherry  who was one of the biggest thorn ui Boris Johnson's side in the last election solidified her postion.
General election 2010: Edinburgh South West[12]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
LabourAlistair Darling19,47342.8Increase3.0
ConservativeJason Rust11,02624.3Increase1.0
Liberal DemocratsTim McKay8,19418.0Decrease3.1
SNPKaukab Stewart5,53012.2Increase1.6
Scottish GreenClare Cooney8721.9Decrease1.6
Scottish SocialistColin Fox3190.7Decrease0.6
Communist LeagueCaroline Bellamy480.1n/a
Majority8,44718.6Decrease2.1
Turnout45,46268.5Increase3.5
Labour holdSwingIncrease1.0


General Election 2019: Edinburgh South West[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
SNPJoanna Cherry24,83047.6Increase12.0
ConservativeCallum Laidlaw12,84824.6Decrease8.7
LabourSophie Cooke7,47814.3Decrease12.4
Liberal DemocratsTom Inglis4,9719.5Increase5.2
Scottish GreenBen Parker1,2652.4n/a
Brexit PartyDavid Ballantine6251.2n/a
SDPMev Brown1140.2n/a
Majority11.98223.0+20.8
Turnout52,11270.9Increase1.5
SNP holdSwingIncrease10.4



So when we consider the likes of Ynys Môn falling to a Tory parachuted into the island from London it could be that Plaid should seek to emulate the SNP who if they had entered  Friday's election with only the seats they won in 2010 could have less seats than Plaid, in realising  that they need to break Labour dominance  in the industrial heartlands.

The 2021 Senedd election will be vital for Plaid if it aims to follow the SNP success.

Wales may be more than a generation behind Scotland in the desire for Independence , but the potential to catch up in less than that is there.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is really interesting. Thanks
Robert Tyler

dafis said...

As far as I can recall the SNP never sucked up to the local Labour regime in the way Plaid has done here in Wales. 2021 is already starting to look like the last chance saloon for our lot here in Wales whereas the Scots could be well on their way out of the Union.

Leigh Richards said...

How has plaid 'sucked up' to labour? Have you watched any of the debates' in the senedd? If you had you'd see they've done nothing of the sort. The point glyn is making here is how quickly things could change, Indeed since last thursday's result we are already seeing more interest in Welsh Indy from people. And as Adam Price has just said labour's loss is plaid's gain
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18102175.adam-price-welsh-independence-will-follow-scottish-example/

The fact of the matter is plaid are the only party who can and will deliver independence for Wales - and every Welsh Indy supporter needs to be getting behind them.