Liberal Democrats.(Remain Aliance).win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

The Liberal Democrats have won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, leaving new PM Boris Johnson with a Commons working majority of just one.

Jane Dodds overturned an 8,038 majority to beat incumbent Conservative Chris Davies by 1,425 votes.

Mr Davies decided to stand again after being unseated by a petition following his conviction for a false expenses claim.

It was the first electoral test for Mr Johnson since becoming prime minister.

Now, with a particularly wafer-thin working majority, he will have to rely heavily on the support of his own MPs and his confidence-and-supply partners the DUP to get any legislation passed in key votes.

However, it was also not a good night for Labour, whose vote share dropped by 12.4% as thaey were beaten into fourth place by the Brexit Party. who share of the vote was much lower than expected.

Elections in the 2010s[edit]

Following the successful recall petition of Christopher Davies, a by-election was held on 1 August 2019.

2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Liberal Democrat	Jane Dodds[11]	13,826	43.5	+14.4
	Conservative	Christopher Davies*	12,401	39.0	-9.6
	Brexit Party	Des Parkinson	3,331	10.5	n/a
	Labour	Tom Davies	1,680	5.3	-12.4
	Monster Raving Loony	Lady Lily Pink	334	1.0	n/a
	UKIP	Liz Phillips	242	0.8	-0.6
Majority			1,425	4.5
Turnout			31,814	59.72[12]
Registered electors
	Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative		Swing

General election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Christopher Davies	20,081	48.6	+7.5
	Liberal Democrat	James Gibson-Watt	12,043	29.1	+0.8
	Labour	Dan Lodge	7,335	17.7	+3.0
	Plaid Cymru	Kate Heneghan	1,299	3.1	-1.3
	UKIP	Peter Gilbert	576	1.4	-6.9
Majority			8,038	19.5	+6.7
Turnout			41,334	76.9	+3.1
Registered electors			56,010
	Conservative hold		Swing	+3.4

Ms Dodds victory was clearly  aided by Plaid Cymru and the Green Party's decision not to stand in vavour of a Remain Aliance.under the Liberal Democrat banner.

General election 2015: Brecon and Radnorshire^[14][15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Christopher Davies	16,453	41.1	+4.5
	Liberal Democrat	Roger Williams	11,351	28.3	−17.8
	Labour	Matthew Dorrance	5,904	14.7	+4.2
	UKIP	Darran Thomas[16]	3,338	8.3	+6.1
	Plaid Cymru	Freddy Greaves	1,767	4.4	+1.9
	Green	Chris Carmichael	1,261	3.1	+2.3
Majority			5,102	12.7	N/A
Turnout			40,074	73.8	+1.3
Registered electors			54,441
	Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat		Swing	+11.1

Plaid leader Adam Price said the "spirit of co-operation" between the pro-Remain parties had led to Ms Dodds's election, as he called for a second referendum.

"But if the prime minister is intent on a general election, he should know that Plaid Cymru and the other pro-Remain parties are committed to cooperating so that we beat Brexit once and for all," he added.

An Plaid/Lib Dem Electoral Pact would be complex Particularly as the Lib Dems  see Ceredigion as  a Target Seat . However they may consider the popularity of Plaid.s Ben Lake in the constituency with the option of concentrating on nearby  Brecon and Radnorshire and Montgomeryshire.

I am not sure whether a pact in Labour seats would be helpful , so Plaid would start at an advantage. and maybe  the Lib Dema should have  the plum of the4  existing  Conservative Welsh  seats , With Plaid fighting Aberconwy and Carmarthen West and

South Pembrokeshire and Clwyd West

The Liberal Democrats  running four  Montgomeryshire,Vale of Glamorgan, Monmouth. and Preseli Pembrokeshire

We are looking at an early General Election Preseli Pembrokeshire possibly an Autumn one , so time is short and it may be easier to sort this out on the existing Tory seats..