Friday, 2 August 2013

The other Byelectionn last night was also a Plaid win.

Since virtually everyone will be concentrating on Plaids "emphatic win " in the Ynys Mon byelection  I thought that I would concentrate on the Blaidd also holding a seat on Caerphilly Council last night

Although the the Penyrheol by-election result was a within Caerphilly Council has been one of Plaid’s  strongholds in Caerphily they had lost one of the fours seats in the labour landside last year.

.The by-election, which followed the death of the local councillor PLAID Anne Collins, saw the following result:

Steve Skivens (Plaid Cymru) 929
Gareth Pratt (Labour) 554
Jamie Davies (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 173
Cameron Muir-Jones (Conservative) 135

The  seat despite being a stronghold  had however seen Plaid always in some danger  of loosing some of themto Labour
( Thanks to  Elections in Wales for the Info)

 1995: Plaid 1,525, Lab 1,457, Lab 1,398, Lab 1,293, Lab 1,255, Plaid 1,198, Plaid 1,150, Plaid 1,079 (Three Lab WINS, One Plaid WIN)
1999: Plaid 1,924, Plaid 1,687, Plaid 1,672, Plaid 1,491, Lab 1,021, Lab 993, Lab 913, Ind 628 (One Plaid HOLD, Three Plaid GAINS from Lab)
2004: Plaid 1,753, Plaid 1,549, Plaid 1,472, Plaid 1,384, Lab 1,055, Lab 1,048, Lab 1,024, Lab 840, Ind 479 (Four Plaid HOLDS)
2008: Plaid 1,924, Plaid 1,687, Plaid 1,672, Plaid 1,491, Lab 1,021, Lab 993, Lab 913, Ind 628 (Four Plaid HOLDS)
2012: Plaid 1,361, Plaid 1,196, Plaid 1,110, Lab 1,074, Plaid 992, Lab 917, Lab 871, Lab 851, Ind 398, TUSC 174 (Three Plaid HOLDS, One Lab GAIN from Plaid)

Still it shows Plaid may be clawing back some of the votes that it had lost last year.

But both  Ynys Mon and Penyrheol show that Plaid can compete against Labour even as these results come only weeks after a poll that sh ows Labour in Wales firmly ahead.

UK General Election Voting Intention
Labour: 48% (+12%)
Conservative: 23% (-3%)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-12%)
Plaid Cymru: 9% (-2%)
UKIP :8% (+6%)
Others: 4%

National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Constituency Vote)
Labour: 46% (+4%)
Conservative: 19% (-6%)
Lib-Dems: 8% (-3%)
Plaid Cymru: 17% (-2%)
UKIP: 6% (+6%)
Others: 3%

National Assembly Election Voting Intention (Regional List Vote)
Labour: 25% (-12%)
Conservative: 12% (-11%)
Lib-Dems: 9% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 23% (+5%)
UKIP: 16% (+11%)
Others: 14% (+6%)

Plaids high standing in the region list indicate there are may be a higher number of voters who would support the party if they thought they had a chance of winning.

Plaid desperately need to create that impression last night they may just be beginning to do so.

2 comments:

  1. Thanks for the link, Glyn.

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  2. Well said Glyn and it's a much more surprising win than Ynys Mon. Based on last week's Wales opinion poll I thought Plaid would lose the council seat, but it's a comfortable victory.

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