The opinion polls had pointed to a PQ victory even a plurality.
|Polling firm||Last date of polling||Link||QLP||PQ||CAQ||QS||ON||GPQ||Other|
|Forum Research||September 3, 2012||29||36||25||6||2||2||0|
|Ekos||September 2, 2012||23.2||36.0||24.5||10.7||5.5|
|Léger Marketing||August 31, 2012||27||33||28||7||3||1||1|
|CROP||August 29, 2012||HTML||26||32||28||9||2||2||1|
|Forum Research||August 28, 2012||28||33||27||8||2||2||0|
|CROP||August 26, 2012||HTML||26||33||28||7||3||3||1|
|Léger Marketing||August 24, 2012||27||33||28||7||2||2||1|
|Forum Research||August 20, 2012||35||29||24||9||1||2||0|
|Léger Marketing||August 16, 2012||28||33||27||6||3||2||0|
|CROP||August 14, 2012||HTML||27||34||25||7||2||3||1|
|Forum Research||August 13, 2012||31||35||25||6||2||0|
|Léger Marketing||August 8, 2012||31||32||27||6||2||2||0|
|CROP||August 8, 2012||HTML||29||32||21||8||2||3||4|
|Forum Research||August 7, 2012||32||34||24||6||3||0|
|Forum Research||August 1, 2012||38||39||14||4||3||0|
|Léger Marketing||July 31, 2012||31||33||21||7||2||4||2|
|2008 Election||December 8, 2008||HTML||42.1||35.3||—||3.8||—||2.2||16.7|
|[show]Opinion polling from 2008 to June 2012|
However the final result was that they fell far short of a majority and although they have recovered a great deal of lost ground, the fact that they can't even raise a majority with Quebec Soladire, to push through a referendum wil be frustrating.
|Party||Party leader||Candidates||Seats||Popular vote|
|Parti Québécois||Pauline Marois||125||51||47||54||+3||43%||1,393,540||31.94%||-3.23|
|Coalition Avenir Québec||François Legault||125||7†||9||19||+12†||15%||1,180,758||27.05%||+10.68†|
|Québec solidaire||Françoise David|
|Option nationale||Jean-Martin Aussant||120||*||1||—||*||—||82,857||1.90%||*|
For the Liberals who lost their leader Jean Charest and several ministers the scale of their defeat was far less than polls had predicted where at times they were running third.to CAQ
For the new Party CAQ it was also a disappointment they had received a reasonable percentage vote but they like PQ had not gained as much predicted from disillusionment with the Liberals and they failed to raise to the heights of the party they replaced the similar right wing anti -sovereignty party ADO who won 41 in the 2008 election seats and forced PQ into second place.
Quebec Solidaire will be celebrating Françoise David joining co-leader Amir Khadir in the Assemblée but failed to make a break through else where.
Option Nationale a centre-left party that saw PQ not promoting Independence enough saw leaderJean-Martin Aussant lose it seat. Though it was always going to be a tough call for a party formed just a year ago and failed to get any media support as CAO had done .
They did manage to produce the star performer of the election in Catherine Dorion whose youtiube video on why she joined ON went viral.
The chance of PQ managing to push through a Independence referendum and they are likely to to forge deals with either the Liberals or the CAQ or both in order to govern.Who will support them on francophone legislation . Defeat on a confidence motion would prompt a new election.
A former PQ minister and one-time proponent of Québec separation,CAQ leader Legault now advocates taking the sovereignty question off the table for the foreseeable future.
Of course unless its forbidden under the constitution the Liberals and CAO could form a government.
There unlikely to be any enthusiasm for another referendum an PQ leader Pauline Marois may decide that the next Election will result in a majority but with the Fedral party and current oppostion NDP who made big gains in Quebec in the last Federal election at the expense of Bloc Quebecois announcing they will contest the next Quebec election there may be even greater complications in the Elections . Particularly as some NDP members have has also members of PQ and QS
Any Nationalist in Wales and Scotland who hoped that a PQ victory would result in a new Nation emerging and that this might somehow boost their own aspirations, should be disappointed for now bit the future of Quebec is still undecided and perhaps we will get a clearer idea at the next election.