Next Years Election in Wales may be influenced by Holyrood rather than Westminster.

Professor Roger Awan-Scully has done the number crunching of The First Welsh Political Barometer Poll of 2020

First, Westminster. After the strong Conservative performance in December, and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll. Here are the numbers (with changes on our last pre-election Barometer poll, conducted in early December, in brackets):Conservatives: 41% (+4)Labour: 36% (-4)Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)Brexit Party: 3% (-2)Greens: 2% (+1)Others: 1 (no change)These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41 percent support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election. Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats? Using the standard method, of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll uniformly across Wales, gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the December result in brackets):Labour: 18 (-4)Conservatives: 18 (+4)Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)In short, this poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats that they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones: Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West. All other seats are projected to be won by the party that was victorious in December.

At this point I think that we should consider that YouGov have also carried out thier first UK wide poll for 2020 which also reflects the post election homonym we would expect Johnson to enjoy

From the Times

It would be interesting to see, whether YouGov conducted both Polls at the same time and whether this influenced the Wales' poll?

But it is not only changes at Westminster that are suggested by our new poll. As well as Westminster, we also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election. Here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with shifts in support since our December Barometer poll once again in brackets):Conservatives: 35% (+4)Labour: 33% (no change)Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)Brexit Party: 4% (-3)Greens: 3% (no change)Others: 1% (no change)These numbers (which include figures for 16 and 17 year old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead) show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35 percent support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election. If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: these are (in order of current marginality) the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn). There are no other projected constituency seat changes.For the regional list vote, the new Barometer poll produced the following results (with changes since our December poll once again in brackets):Conservatives: 32% (+4)Labour: 32% (no change)Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)Greens: 3% (-1)Brexit Party: 3% (-4)Others: 5% (+1)These regional vote figures once more have the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017. Allowing for the constituency results already projected, and once more assuming uniform national swings since 2016, our new poll projects the following overall results for the Assembly’s regional list seats:Regions:North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 PlaidMid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 ConservativeSouth Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 PlaidSouth Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 PlaidSouth Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 PlaidThese figures therefore generate the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:Labour: 24 seats (19 constituency, 5 regional)Conservatives: 22 seats (14 constituency, 8 regional)Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional)Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency)Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour have always much been the largest party in the chamber. Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggest that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted. Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5 percent of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?

Whilst I expect a different vote in May 2021, it may well be  that we have only three parties in the next Senedd (depending on whether  LibDem Kirsty Williams survives or not.

It would be very hard for Plaid Cymru to form a coalition with the Tories , but the prospect of propping up Labour also seems dire unless the latter adopt a more  powers philosophy.

it well probably mean that no party will even approach the numbers to govern on their own.



The prospect of a Lab-Con alliance seems impossible at the moment, however if events in Scotland may push the Unionists parties together  to prevent Wales going down the same road.

Indeed the result of elections in Wales may have less to do with events in Westminster as they do now, but in Holyrood.

I am "WOKE" and want an Independent Wales that is so.

 Those over at the Gwlad  Gwladthe new Welsh Nationalists Party  which claims to be Neither  Right Nor Left"  is of course a Right Wing Party and its latest Facebook posting  entitled BEWARE THE YOKE OF THE WOKE, betrays their true ideology.

Covering the recent YES Cymru's annual meeting , they write

Human nature being as it is, this is of course a general problem and as such, it is perhaps something that YES Cymru can manage, based on information and knowledge gleaned from other such organisations and parties.But perhaps the second problem is more of a potential nightmare for the movement's leadership, i.e that the movement is infiltrated by what's called the 'woke' - people who seek to attach a range of other unrelated issues and causes to the independence cause.The 'woke' are usually to be found amongst young people in their 20ies and early 30ies-the product of the left-liberal bias of our current school and university system.They tend to be very judgemental in their approach to what they perceive to be the failings of modern society, constantly seeing 'phobic' people all around them who need to be shamed, blamed and shunned.They also tend to be very insistent on pushing their own agenda, with a disregard for the wider pictureIt was quite troubling on Saturday for example to hear such individuals coming up with statements such as 'An Independent Wales will not be worth having if Wales is not made a completely plastics-free country' and further 'An Independent Wales will not be worth having if Wales is not fully part of the' climate crisis' fight'.One has to wonder in how many other ways an Independent Wales will not 'be worth having' if such pre-conditions are allowed to grow and multiply...?Identifying ourselves mainly as a 'small c' nationalist party campaigning for Independence, GWLAD has no problem with what one would term the 'right-thinking left'. The traditional left if you like.We would for example share their sentiments for some forms of publicly-run services in an Independent Wales(railways, water etc) and could co-operate on other issues as well.Unfortunately, the 'right-thinking left' is now being tainted by their association with the woke brigade and their agenda, and there are signs that the general public is also becoming increasingly fed-up of the self-absorbed nature of the latter.The last thing that YES Cymru needs is for this growing public perception to be attached to the Independence movement.Time for real leadership to keep the indy ship from being dragged on to the rocks.

In attempting  to use WOKE as a derogatory term their are aligning them selved with the emglish actor Laurence Fox

But the original use Stay woke  whih became a watch word in parts of the black community for those who were self-aware, questioning the dominant paradigm and striving for something better which is something , we really should adopt especaily in a Post-Brexit Britain in which the right hold merely all the cards .

 When Cymdeiths Yr Iaith  first public protest took place in February 1963 in Aberystwyth town centre where members pasted posters on the post office in attempt to be arrested and go to trial.^[2] When it became apparent that they would not be arrested for the posters they then moved to Pont Trefechan in Aberystwyth, where around seventy members and supporters held a 'sit-in' blocking road traffic for half an hour it was the moment that these hero's become WOKE.

When we reacted against the vandalism  of the Cofiwch Dreweryn  wall  many in Wales became WOKE.

Yesterday's Holocaust ceremonies reminded us that we should stay WOKE.

And it does mean that we should stay WOKE on the environment . sexual hostility .

If those in Gwlad Gwlad want to live in an Independent Cymru Fach with the same attitudes as Little England under the Tories as we face now , thats up to them.

But I want Independence for something better not a copy of the British State.

Cost of extra Senedd Members would take centuries to reach that of restoring Westminster

Welsh Assembly Members have a "remarkable workload" and more Senedd Members are needed, according to academics. but it will be hard to sell it to an already cynical public many of whom think that they spend all their working time in the siambr  debating .

Indeed one of the problems of democracy is that the casework that a Senedd Member   or a or MP member may have built up over the years may be lost if he or she loses their seat to another party.

Hopefully it can be handed over , but there is guarantee the new member , will be as sympathetic and this is another case for the argument for the STV and multi-member seats .

The Wasting Mule report that 

In 2017 a report found that the number of AMs should go up from 60 to between 80 and 90.
When it comes to cost it's estimated the cost would go up by £6.6m per year for 20 additional members to £9.6m per year for 30 additional members.
At an Assembly committee academics continued to say that was needed to ensure the future success of the Assembly. Professor Laura McAllister, from Wales Governance Centre, said: "I think there's only so much an institution can do with such a small number of backbenchers.
"We need a degree of size and capacity to be able to scrutinise properly and I am afraid that the backbench complement is far too small to be able to exercise that properly in a sustained way.
"I think AMs have a really quite remarkable workload. You can mitigate for as long as you like but unless there's a change in the number of AMs then they will be doing things which are just avoiding being underpowered.
"There's nowhere else in the world that is as underpowered as an institution viz a viz its powers than this institution".
Committee member Delyth Jewell, a Plaid Cymru AM, said increasing numbers could help increase diversity. She said that as no changes are likely to happen before 2026 there is a risk the workload for existing AMs will increase and things like family-friendly hours – something the Assembly boasts compared to Westminster where the Commons sits until late at night – are at risk.
Prof McAllister said that already Assembly committees have begun to meet on a Monday due to the workload they face. "The elastic has been stretched as far as it can be without breaking," she said.
In a typical week AMs travel to Cardiff on Monday mornings and committees meet on Monday afternoons. Tuesday mornings see some committee meetings and group meetings for political parties.
The first plenary session of the week takes place on Tuesday afternoon with more committees on Wednesday morning and another plenary on Wednesday afternoon.
Thursdays are dedicated to committee meetings while Fridays are reserved for constituency and regional business.
Why did the panel think more AMs are needed?

• Role, responsibilities and powers have changed since 1999

• As more matters are devolved, there is a need for more AMs to scrutinise further devolution of areas of policy

• Brexit will add "further changes" to the Assembly's role

• There is a "fundamental limitation of the severely limited time available to 60 members to fulfil their varied and complex roles as legislators, scrutineers, representatives, employers and politicians"

• AMs had said that a "regimented timetable" and strict whipping to be plenary for votes meant limited time for meetings with constituents, campaigners and groups.

The full report can be read online.Professor Diana Stirbu from London Metropolitan University told the committee: "This Assembly has been a learning Assembly from the very beginning. It had to adapt to very different legislative processes and different improvements."
She said when it comes to work in the constituency "I think the evidence we have heard during work we have conducted for the remuneration board, we have heard a lot of people say they don't see enough of their AM in their constituency".Prof McAllister said she didn't believe committees couldn't continue at the rate they're working. "Until the issue of Assembly Member size is addressed there are going to have to be really tough decisions about what you do and don't do. I think that's a real shame and that undermines the principle of serving the people of Wales.
"The key currency of scrutiny is members' time and you all know how hard it is for you as members to keep on top of it as well we the other multifarious roles you all keep as AMs.
"It must be frustrating for you as politicians not to be able to do the work you want to do".
Prof Stirbu added: "People don't know very well what AMs do and what their working week looks like and what kind of work they do and requirements on their work.
"They know travelling from north to south is a big big deterrent. If there are members or candidates with caring responsibility they are very aware that being an AM is going to challenge their family life."

An Extra three million pounds a year considering the cost MPs set to leave Houses of Parliament for £3.5bn restoration

So even if inflation was taken into account the cost  of extra Senedd  Members would take centuries to reach the same level as restoring Westminster 

Indeed  the cost of two state openings of Parliament  within months , could be more than it would cost us to have extra AM's.

What really happened when Mrs Windsor met the Harry?

I thought I might enter the world of Conspiracy Theory  as the Political News seems a bit thin today and for a republican like myself point out that the whole Harry Meghan story may have been concocted to get the media of Uncle Andrew
's back.

The Washington Post provides us with a History of "Randy Andy's " many scandals

Being a royal sibling is a surprisingly difficult role. As WorldViews has pointed out before, your position as "spare to the heir" is really just ceremony with no real clout, yet it leaves you very open to attacks from the notorious British tabloid press.
Many recent royal siblings seem to end up throwing caution to the wind and embracing their role as the black sheep of the family, be it Prince Harry's embrace of naked partying or Princess Margaret's often scandalous love life. But few have become as embroiled in controversy as Prince Andrew, the Duke of York and brother of Charles,  who has again been brought to international attention after being linked to an underage "sex slave" scandal.
The damning allegations, which claim that the Duke of York had intercourse with an underage girl procured by disgraced American investment banker Jeffrey Epstein, have led to not one but two denials from Buckingham Palace; a very unusual response which perhaps shows how seriously they are being taken.
This latest scandal can't have entirely come as a surprise, however. Not only have Andrew's links to Epstein been known (and speculated) about for years, but they fit into a broader caricature that Andrew has struggled to shift: That of "Randy Andy," the scandal-prone prince wooed by wealth and women.

Like Harry and Margaret, much of the attention on Andrew comes because of his love life. Andrew had married the red-haired Sarah Ferguson, nicknamed "Fergie," in 1986, but the couple separated soon after. Ferguson went on to cause controversy with her relationships with other men: In 1992, she was photographed topless in the south of France having her toes sucked by a Texas financial adviser, John Bryan. The couple divorced four years later.

 Andrew, as evidenced by his nickname, was no saint either. The tabloid press had linked him to a variety of lovers before he married Ferguson, and after they separated it was no different. His romantic endeavors brought him some unlikely friends. "Prince Andrew turns up at my house at one in the morning and he wants to party," rock star Courtney Love recounted in 2006, explaining that they went on to drink tea together.
Despite their separation and divorce, Andrew and Ferguson remained surprisingly friendly (there were even rumors that they would eventually get remarried). And while that might seem like a nice thing, in the end it's ended up a problem for Andrew: In 2010, a tabloid newspaper reporter filmed Ferguson offering to sell access to the prince for £500,000 ($800,000). Ferguson's offer was apparently the result of her own substantial money problems.
There was no indication that Andrew knew of Ferguson's deal, but the news still resonated with a British public that had grown skeptical of the way that the prince appeared to mix business and pleasure. From 2001, Andrew had served as Britain's (unpaid) special representative for international trade and investment, but his suitability for the role was repeatedly questioned – not least for the huge expenses he claimed for the role (reported to be £620,000 he claimed in 2010, according to the Daily Telegraph) in addition to the £249,000 he receives annually for his royal duties. His fondness for fancy plane flights earned him another nickname – "Airmiles Andy."
Because of his position (or perhaps despite of it), Andrew also made some unlikely friends. There were reports of him meeting with Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2008 or hosting the son of ousted Tunisian president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali at Buckingham Palace. He was said to have met with the Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, on 12 separate occasions. His links with Kazakhstan have been a particular source of scrutiny – one Kazakh billionaire was found to have paid significantly higher than was listed for the prince's former home, for example.
Those with sympathy for Andrew will say he was simply doing his job, or at worst attempting to provide for his two daughters and their mother (a product of the British royals' shifting financial landscape). In the end, however, it was this "guilt by association" – in particular his relationship with Epstein – that led Andrew to step down from his role in 2011. Since then, he's taken on a far lower-key roles.
It's unclear what the consequences of the new accusations will be (the accusations haven't been tested in court and Buckingham Palace is said to be considering legal options), but the hit to his reputation may again prove dramatic. In the British press, many are treating it as a blow to not just Andrew but the entire royal institution.

It is considered that  Andrew is Mrs Windsor's favourite son and I wonder if she called young Harry and made him an offer.

Something like this.

"Well Harry, it is clear that Whats her name is not fitting into the firm and we don't want another Fergie or even Diana, Now as you know Andrew has got himself in a bit of a pickle .

Now we were wondering if you would consider leaving "the firm" and in doing so shift those beastly reporters of your Uncle's back.

"Well I don't know, Grandmother"

"Of course we could see the result of your DNA  test published".



"Well in that  case I agree "

Welsh "History" or Welsh "Studies" in Schools?

To be fair the criticism of Welsh Education Minister Kirsty Williams after her press statement on Tuesday, most oand her  the statement that “there is no such thing as a Welsh history – there are Welsh histories”.

As Aled Gwyn Williams over at Nation Cymru points out...

...Inevitably, the first part of that sentence made the headlines – appearing deeply controversial out of context.
In fairness, the minister’s wording left her message open to misinterpretation, and might have been better expressed as “There is no such thing as ONE Welsh history”. In that respect, the minister is right. see more here.

Only recently I have considered that I may have a form of dyspraxia, which may explain 50 years ago i only received one O'Level and that was in History.


But I do remember the Exam consisted of two sections one of which was Welsh History which you had to answer one but no more than two.

Later I was to attended Coleg Harlech  and one of the courses I took was Welsh Studies which covered History, Economics and Sociology.

Once again it was History that pulled me through and this was largely due to the Tutor in that subject  Neil Evans who personally helped me to at least make my essays legible to the extent I was the first student to use the college's computer to write my essays.

Believe me if you think this Blog has poor Grammar and  spelling written down it would me much worse for you.

I then went on to Aberystwyth were I did History, Welsh History and politics, choosing to do my full degree in History.

This does not mean I abandoned  Welsh History altogether as one of the courses was  Wales , Scotland, Ireland  and the Celtic state under the guidance of John Davies (Bwlch-llan).

I think that give me a wider aspect of Welsh History with the comparison to our Celtic cousins. 

But what of teaching Welsh History in Schools Today?

Perhaps we should reexamine of the Welsh Studies syllabus and look at covering more than History as a Welsh context .

Just examining Welsh History alone , we need to examine far mote in a "Welsh"Context we could have a general syllabus covering the likes of History, Sociology , Economics, Sociology, Politics and Literature form a Welsh prospective  at least at GCSE level and at least have a Welsh input into A level subjects including one day Law .

Welsh "History" or Welsh "Studies" we need to at least see that pupils understand their own nation.

The same bigotry over Welsh Medium Education regurgitated for Gàidhlig .

For those of us in Wales yesterday's Scotsman  was a form of Deja Vu.

Children's education could suffer by a move which will see Gaelic as the main teaching language for all primary one pupils in the Western Isles from next year, the Scottish Conservative shadow education secretary has said.
Liz Smith, MSP, described the new policy which will see Gaelic become the "default" language for P1 pupils as a "deeply troubling step".
Alasdair Allan, SNP MSP for the Highlands and Islands, is demanding that Ms Smith withdraw her “highly offensive” remarks and apologise.
John Finnie, Scottish Greens MSP for the Highlands and Island, also said Ms Smith's comments were "offensive and inaccurate".
Pupils starting lessons in Gaelic will learn English from P4 onwards. Parents who want to opt out of the new system can have their children taught in English from P1.However, Ms Smith, said Gaelic should not be promoted over English.“This is a deeply troubling step and one that could put children in the Western Isles at a distinct disadvantage to their peers.
“Gaelic is a rich and beautiful language and one that should be encouraged at school, but not at the expense of English.
“This worrying move will inevitably put pressure on primary children in the Western Isles to speak Gaelic for those first crucial years of school.
“That could have all sorts of consequences that have clearly not been considered fully.”
Mr Allan said: “The level of ignorance on display in Liz Smith’s comments is staggering.
“Children educated in Gaelic, far from being ‘disadvantaged,’ come out of school bilingual, and evidence points to them having higher attainment in all areas, including English."I would ask Ms Smith to withdraw and apologise for these highly offensive remarks." - Alasdair Allan, SNP MSP for the Highlands and Islands
“The Western Isles are the last place in Scotland were the majority of the population still speak the language. They do so despite ignorant remarks directed at Gaelic speakers down the ages.
“I had been under the impression that all parties in the parliament supported both Gaelic and Gaelic medium education.
“I would ask Ms Smith to withdraw and apologise for these highly offensive remarks, which show a total lack of understanding of what Gaelic medium education is.”
The new policy from Comhairle nan Eilean Siar - the council for the Western Isles - will see Gaelic become the "default" language for pupils for the first time in some of Scotland's schools.
"A deeply troubling step and one that could put children in the Western Isles at a distinct disadvantage to their peers." - Liz Smith, MSP, Scottish Conservative shadow education spokeswoman.Meanwhile the Educational Institute of Scotland, (EIS) the country's main teaching union, supported the new policy but stressed the need for adequate staffing levels to give parents the choice of opting out.
"We are supportive of the provision of Gaelic education. But adequate staffing and resources are needed for both options" - EIS spokeswoman.An EIS spokeswoman said: “The EIS is aware of the importance of Gaelic to the cultural identity of Scotland and also the beneficial educational outcomes which derive from successful language study. We are supportive of the provision of Gaelic education.
"It is essential that parental choice is supported by adequate staffing and resources for both options; indeed appropriate support should be provided to the many living languages in Scotland.”

The Islands have historically been a very strong Scottish Gaelic (Gàidhlig) speaking area. Both the 1901 and 1921 census reported that all parishes were over 75% Gaelic speaking, including areas of high population density such as Stornoway. However, the Education (Scotland) Act 1872 mandated English-only education, and is now recognised as having dealt a major blow to the language. People still living can recall being beaten for speaking Gaelic in school.^[128] Nonetheless, by 1971 most areas were still more than 75% Gaelic speaking – with the exception of Stornoway, Benbecula and South Uist at 50-74%.^]

In the 2001 census, each island overall was over 50% Gaelic speaking – South Uist (71%), Harris (69%), Barra (68%), North Uist (67%), Lewis (56%) and Benbecula (56%). With 59.3% of Gaelic speakers or a total of 15,723 speakers, this made the Outer Hebrides the most strongly coherent Gaelic speaking area in Scotland.

Most areas were between 60-74% Gaelic speaking and the areas with the highest density of over 80% are Scalpay near Harris, Newtonferry and Kildonan, whilst Daliburgh, Linshader, Eriskay, Brue, Boisdale, West Harris, Ardveenish, Soval, Ness, and Bragar all have more than 75%. The areas with the lowest density of speakers are Stornoway (44%), Braigh (41%), Melbost (41%), and Balivanich (37%)

The Gaelic Language (Scotland) Act was enacted by the Scottish Parliament in 2005 to provide continuing support for the language.^[131] However, by 2011 the overall percentage of Gaelic speakers in the Outer Hebrides had fallen to 52%.

Gaelic is all ready the natural language of Islanders  in the same way  Cymraeg is in many parts of Wales.

The struggle for Welsh Medium Education has expanded beyond these boarders, but it has often met with prejudice and ignorance and even the  "Liberal" Guardian often fails to comprehend the nature of the calls for Welsh Medium Education to be expanded.

Despite decades of this in Gwynedd for example there has been no evidence that any pupil  has been disadvantaged and not one pupil educated through the medium of Welsh does not speak English fluently.

Indeed they often outshine English only educated Welsh Pupils in the mastery of what is actually second language.

Welsh Medium Schools often out preform English Language schools in league tables.

ll the evidence show anything  (apart from spurious claims from some Bigots) is that such education benefits pupils and I am sure this will be equally true of the Western Isles.

Ross England should have resigned been deselected before the Generla Election.

Ross England wants to quit as the Conservative assembly election candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan, BBC Wales has been told.

Mr England was suspended as a party member and candidate after it emerged his conduct as a witness led to the collapse of a rape trial.
The party said a "thorough investigation" will be concluded soon.
But local Conservative sources have told BBC Wales Mr England will stand down regardless of the outcome.
The aide was giving evidence in a rape trial in April 2018 when he made claims about the victim's sexual history, which the complainant denied.
A judge accused him of sabotaging the trial.
The evidence was not permissible in court, although Mr England denies knowing this when he gave evidence.
Mr England was suspended by the Welsh Conservatives 12 weeks ago.
Spencer Russell Downe, deputy chair of the Vale of Glamorgan Conservative Association, said it had been left "in limbo" because a decision on whether Mr England would remain as the candidate has not yet been taken.
Since then, three separate grassroots Tory sources have told BBC Wales that Mr England does not intend to continue as the candidate.
One of them said: "Ross is obviously fighting to clear his name and there's a process for all these things - but he is absolutely adamant that he's done nothing wrong.
"In any case, he has told us that he is going to stand down as a candidate and there will therefore be a process in due course for selecting a new candidate."
Lord Davies, Welsh Conservative chairman, declined to comment.

I remind you of the words of the Trial judge

"Mr England, as far as I am concerned, this matter so far as you are concerned isn’t ended. I shall be writing personal letters to people who are politically close to you and I hope they take appropriate action. Get out of my court.

Mr England should have resigned immediately  and whilst I accept that a Political Party must use due process it has been a while now and whilst Mr England has been suspended pending a party investigation, surely he should have been removed as a candidate or persuaded to resign.

Can we trust an internal party enquiry ?

A previous  enquiry found it "unlikely" Alun Cairns  had not been made aware of Ross England's role in the collapse.

The investigator said those involved said they did not inform Mr Cairns of Mr England's role, and there was "no direct evidence to contradict this".

Mr Cairns insisted he did not know the details of the case.

He resigned from the cabinet in November after the row broke out, just before the official start of the general election campaign.

A UK Government Cabinet Office investigation was launched following Mr Cairns' resignation from Boris Johnson's cabinet in November.

Sir Alex Allan, the prime minister's independent adviser on ministerial standards, has concluded that the evidence does not uphold the allegations against Mr Cairns.

In his report, Sir Alex said:

 "I find it unlikely that Mr Cairns would not have been told something about Mr England's role when he was told about the collapse.
"But all those involved state that they had not informed Mr Cairns of Mr England's role, and there is no direct evidence to contradict this.
"On that basis, I do not find that the evidence upholds the allegations of a breach of the Ministerial Code."

The rape victim told BBC Wales that she was "disappointed but not surprised" by the investigation's conclusion.

Reading Sir Alex judgement it seems that basically unless someone  admitted they informed Cairns (highly unlikely) he had no option to accept their word.

Did not the media also try and contact Cairns for a comment ? or was this not admissible?

However it seems to me that contrary to being cleared, Cairns has received a very reluctant verdict.

Would if Mr England he is cleared by his Party , (which is possible) consider the verdict of his friends to have more authority than the words of the Trial Judge

Breaking News it seems that the Tories have announced that Ross England is "No longer the candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan" we shall see.