Plaid seemed to have been vindicated over FM deadlock.

Plaid supporters may well feel pleased that the party has seemingly been vindicated by public opinion over the decision to nominate Leanne Wood for First Minister/

This week saw publication of the first Welsh Political Barometer poll to be conducted since the National Assembly election last month. 

The Polls which you can see here  see  very little change in voting intentions though Plaid seem the only Party to get a increase in support.

As Roger Scully the Doyen of the number crunching  puts it

"Clearly we see Labour holding steady and still some way in the lead. But the big news would appear to be Plaid Cymru’s rating – up five points on the immediate pre-election poll. Some of this may be accounted for by that poll having produced a somewhat Plaid-unfriendly sample. But even so, our new poll has Plaid up 2.5 points on their election result. In short, there is absolutely nothing here to indicate that Plaid Cymru were damaged politically by the arguments following the stand-off over the First Minister vote in the Assembly. Elsewhere we see the Conservatives’ support ebbing, while that for UKIP remains robust".

Indeed the Polsters put the question directly to those sampled.

“Thinking about the recent debate surrounding the appointment of First Minister and formation of the Welsh government, following the Welsh Assembly elections, which, if any, of the following parties do you think improved its reputation the most?”“And which, if any, of the following parties do you think damaged its reputation the most?”

The table below shows answers to both questions from the respondents:

Party	Improved	Damaged
Labour	12%	19%
Plaid	19%	11%
Conservative	4%	14%
UKIP	7%	11%
Lib-Dems	4%	6%
None of them	32%	10%
Don’t Know	22%	28%

 Professor Scully  points out over half the respondents chose ‘None of them’ or ‘Don’t Know’ 

"This table is, I think, a salutary reminder of how issues that excite close observers of events in Cardiff Bay can fail almost totally to cut through to many people – even when, as in the case of the First Minister vote, those issue are picked up by the UK-wide media. Large numbers of our respondents simply chose the ‘None of them’ or ‘Don’t Know’ options for both questions". 

However there is a difference between  ‘None of them’ or ‘Don’t Know’  the former does not mean disinterest   but a feeling  that many  felt no one party emerged positively or negatively out of this

But as Professor Sculley points out 

"But the findings also show us how the views of political commentators are far from an infallible guide to the thought processes of ordinary people. To the extent that people made anything at all of the shenanigans in the Bay, our survey indicates that Plaid emerged as the most positively evaluated party, and Labour as the most damaged. That is not what most commentary would have led anyone to expect".

Maybe it shows the extent that Labour link with the Welsh Media is to powerful and there is to much of trend to simply repeat Labour Press releases as the actual news and not as only one of the Welsh Parties would wish we believed it is.

Kirsty accused of 'breaking her word' over use of ministerial car

Wales on line has news that  Welsh Conservatives have accused Liberal Democrat Education Secretary Kirsty Williams of breaking her word by being prepared to use a costly ministerial car within her new Cabinet role.

It reads

In February the Brecon and Radnorshire AM told her party’s conference in Cardiff that the Welsh Lib Dems were “not here for ministerial cars”.
However, in response to an Assembly Question from the Welsh Conservatives, First Minister Carwyn Jones has confirmed that Ms Williams will “have access to the Government Car Service”.

 The Tories have previously revealed how ministerial, chauffeur-driven cars cost the taxpayer approximately £1.8m between April 2011 and October 2015.

They have estimated that taxpayers could save around £150,000 in car costs if the Education Secretary rejected use of ministerial vehicles over the Assembly term – enough to buy, they say, every pupil in a local authority school an exercise book.

 I don't know for sure  but I suppose that if Ms Williams did not use her Ministerial car then much of the expense would still be there as it would not be sold or a driver made redundant.

 La Pasionaia may well be ruing her words when speaking to the Welsh Liberal Democrat Conference in February, Ms Williams said: 

“But we’re Welsh Liberal Democrats, we don’t take the easy route do we?
“For me, growing up in Llanelli, becoming a Welsh Liberal Democrat wasn’t the easy choice.
“For the easy route, you’d join Labour. But that was unthinkable. We’re not here for ministerial cars. Not here for fame. Not here to give our mates jobs. Not here to rule because it’s what we think is owed to us.”

She could of course set an example  to he cabinet colleagues by cutting down on the use of Ministerial cars but would it make a major difference?

A spokesman for Kirsty Williams said:

 “The Conservatives should be careful on this issue.
“Earlier this year we learned that their leader has been responsible for over 50% of all car hire expenses in the last Assembly term.
“We have also never heard Conservatives in the Assembly criticise their colleagues in Westminster for the use of ministerial cars.
“Kirsty took the job of Cabinet Secretary for Education to improve the life chances of pupils in Wales and will only make use of the ministerial car service when absolutely necessary, for security or logistical purposes.”

A Welsh Government spokesman said: 

“Ministers are expected to travel across the length and breadth of Wales and often undertake several engagements in a single day.
“Consideration is always given to the most economical and efficient way of conducting as many engagements as possible, to maximise value for money.”
 

The spokesman pointed out that during journeys ministers continue to work, and have access to a range of confidential information, which they could not do on public transport or by other means of travel. a theme pointed out by former First Minister  Rhodri Morgan when the Tories first brought this up.

I suspect  the Tories would be highly critical of a Minister who turned up at a major event in a battered old mini tired and dishevelled after along drive .

I wouldn't, but I can see the argument that it would  not show Wales in a good light.

The cost of hiring a suitable  rather than using a  Ministerial fleet could possibly turn out more expensive in the long run.

We should ask how effective the use of Ministerial cars are and how we can make savings without  making it difficult for Ministers to do their job.

There is considerable waste by the Welsh Government to pamper the egos of Cabinet Ministers and their subordinates 

However false economy as a gesture is not good government.

At least we can wear this Welsh Shirt with pride.

l an much more of a Rugby Fan rather than football, But at least those fallowing  the round ball can  at least  where their replica kit with pride,

For the record the 2016 official kit pf the Welsh Team that will soon be playing in European Championship next Saturday








Alas we Rugby fans are expected to wear this




The major difference of course is that whilst the WFA badge is a stylised Draig Goch the WRU have  opetrd to use the Three Feathers of the heir to the English Throne the badge having no connection with the native Princes of Wales.

As bot a Nationalist and Republican , I object to wearing a Welsh Rugby shirt with the logo of someone whose claim to be "Prince of Wales" I object to,

So unless I am given a shirt with these symbols on as gift I seek out Welsh Rugby shirt with a less subservient badge.

Something like this



So Football supporters can wear their replica kit with pride .

We followers of the oval  ball must either wear something like the above , or wear a symbol of our conquest.

It something we will not see changing soon or ever. but in the meantime perhaps we should agree on alternative badge designed  to show our true allegiance and not to a foreign Prince.

Denbeigh by elections

There  were two County Byelections on Denbeighshire council on Thursday

Denbigh Lower - results

Election Candidate	Party	Votes	%
Mark John Young	Independent	389	36%	+18.9%
Rhys Thomas	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	315	29%	+16.1%
Lara Jane Pritchard	Conservative	159	15%	+10.8%
John Francis McGuire	Labour	108	10%	+10.1%
William Gwyn Williams	Liberal Democrats	101	9%	+4.7%

Previous Election

Denbigh Lower: Emboldened denotes elected
Independents 977, 579, 505, 204(78%)
Plaid Cymru 386 (13%)
Liberal Democrat 138 (5%)
Conservative 118 (4%)

[[Combined vote for other previous Independents 0 [0.0%; -60.5%]]

Dyserth - results

Election Candidate	Party	Votes	%
David Gwyn Williams	Independent	177	26%	+25.6%
David Henry Parry	Independent	159	23%	+23%d
Hugh Andrew Hughes	Conservative	140	20%	-30.4%
Heather Alison Prydderch	Liberal Democrats	107	15%	+3.9%
Richard Jones-Abbas	Labour	87	13%	-25.2%
Janice Ann Williams	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	21	3%	+3.0%

Previous Election 

Conservative 369 (51%),

Labour 275 (38%),

Liberal Democrat 84 (12%)

It is Interesting  to note that in Denbeigh Lower if an Independent had stood Plaid nay have puled of a win/

Which is interesting when we consider the  result from Argyll & Bute UA which was conducted under STV or rather  since ot was a byelection AV

 Oban North & Lorn- 2nd June 2016

June 2, 2016

First preference votes –

SNP 1055 [39.8%; -16.1%]
Independent 711 [26.8%; +7.9%]
Con 591 [22.3%; +9.4%]
LD Dave Pollard 294 [11.1%; -1.3%]
Unfortunately  the council have not yet provided full details  and we will have to wait till Monday butthe  Independent was elected following the elimination and transfer of the Lib Dems and Conservatives votes

Independent gain from SNP
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%)
Scottish National Party 410, 707 (31%)
Conservatives 332 (9%)
Liberal Democrats 188 (5%)

So we may just be seeing a vote split on Nationalist Unionist lines with latter switching  their vote to another Unionist party . Something that seemed  to have happened  to the benefit  of Ruth Davidson and the Tories in Scotland  in last May Parliamentary Elections .

Riding two horses at once.

 If anyone doubted the return to front-line politics pf Adam Price  was not going to be a boost not only for Plaid but the Assembly as a whole then they should read this article on Wales on line 

In it he writes

 May the 5th did not deliver the political earthquake for which some of us were hoping. But a few weeks on it’s hard to deny the fact that those tectonic plates have begun to rumble.

He points out that the stalemate that resulted in Leanne Wood tying with Labour's Carwyn Jones in the vote for first Minister  may well turn out to be me than symbolic. 

A vote for First Minister held for only the second time in seventeen years is itself a symbol of a political culture in which challenge has been not so much unusual as unthinkable.
We have been present at the noisy birth of a new ‘high-energy’ democracy, crackling with unpredictability, which at times will mean more fractiousness but also contains within it the seeds of new possibilities.

 He then tries to explain what being in opposition means

Before considering the new potential this watershed moment represents, it’s worth for a moment reminding ourselves, given the torrent of misinformation that surrounded it, what it’s not.

I t is not a coalition, rag-tag or any other variety, between Plaid Cymru and UKIP. Such an arrangement is completely inconceivable, for either party quite frankly, given the ideological gulf.

 We will as Opposition parties, together with the Conservatives, from time to time, end up voting on the same side, often for different reasons, to defeat the Government.That will not make it a coalition either – which will not prevent our increasingly desperate opponents in Labour and what’s left of the Liberal Democrats from flaming us on social media.
Nor will it stop the Welsh broadcast media from presenting a lost vote for the ruling party – as with the Public Health Bill before the Election – uniquely in the democratic world, as an embarrassment for the Opposition.

He then tries to explain what the deal negotiated with Labour means 

The Compact which ended the impasse is not a “progressive alliance” between Labour and Plaid. We are not Labour’s conscience, we are Labour’s competitor.This mean that while we are both progressive parties, we are rivals not allies, with different visions of the future. Fundamentally we believe that a change in leadership is necessary to solve our country’s deepest problems.

And why Plaid are reluctant to enter into a formal coalition with Labour  something which he played a major part in encouraging 

The “historic compromise” of 2007 was the exception not the rule, and we will never make the same mistake as the ILP, the Cooperative or Communist Parties whose reward for being part of Labour’s broad progressive front was political oblivion – as will now most likely also be the fate of the Welsh Liberal Democrats.

It may  well be  Future  Historians  will  point to The Labour-led Welsh government  suffering  hugely embarrassing defeat over a landmark plan to introduce a ban on e-cigarettes from many enclosed spaces as a turning point in Welsh Poltics.
.

Labour ministers were poised to introduce a wide-ranging ban on vaping in places where children are likely to be present, making the argument that the practice normalised smoking.

But the public health (Wales) bill – a key element of the government’s legislative programme – failed at the last hurdle in farcical circumstances after a Labour minister “belittled” political opponents who were set to help it on to the statute book.

Shortly before the vote, Leighton Andrews, the public services minister, who was dramatically defeated by Plaid leader Leane Wood last May  described the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, as a “cheap date”. The Plaid group met and decided to vote against the bill, which therefore failed because Labour does not have a majority on the assembly.

Adam Price did not refer to this but it may be along time before Plaid consider propping up a Labour Government in Wales and we can only wonder on what the consequences  will be .

Labour will when Plaid vote against them accuse the latter of collaborating with the Tories  and Ukip which may be damaging.

But if Plaid back the government deal or no deal , they will be accused pf propping up a discredited government.

It will be difficult at time but then if you can't ride two horses at once you shouldn't be in the circus.

 

Boris Johnson standing up against elites !!!!

Of anyone on the left is tempted  to vote for a Brexit then perhaps they should consider the sort of people who will be running the UK after we were to leave the UK


Boris Johnson has claimed that the EU referendum campaign is a contest between those who want to take back control and the Davos elite. Asked in an interview for the BBC programme if it was a contest between elites and the ordinary man, Johnson replied:

It is in a sense a struggle between people who want to take back control, and a small group of people who do very well out of the current system and who know Christine Lagarde and can go “mwah mwah” with her at Davos, or whatever it happens to be. Of course they’re going to be in favour of the system.

Can anyone really expect with Johnson .Gove and Iain Duncun Smith  in charge these elites will disappear

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove both say the EU-enforced £60-a-year hit can be dropped if Britain votes out on June 23.

But they conveniently forget to mention  many of the Tory Vote Leave campaigners  - who first introduced an 8% rate in 1994, then tried to hike it to an eye-watering 17.5% a year later.

Iain Duncan Smith, Liam Fox and John Whittingdale all backed the bid by then-Tory Chancellor Norman Lamont - who's also now a prominent Brexiteer.

Even if we were to leave then VAT will  srill be with us . Can anyone really envisage a Tory or Red Tory government scraping it ?

The idea Johnson and his cronies have the ordinary members of Britain interest at heart is ridiculous and the idea that they are fighting against elitism is the biggest load pf poppycock to come out of the campaign.

Can you Re-brand Carwyn ?

Oh dear it looks like the Wasting Mule and Labour are trying to rebrand First Minister Carwyn Jones.  

The  Blurb for Martin Shipton  says he is 

"Media Wales' Chief Reporter.He joined Wales on Sunday in 1994, moving on to the Western Mail eight years later. He specialises in controversial and investigative stories and has been involved in covering the National Assembly since its outset. His book on the Assembly's first decade, Poor Man's Parliament, was published in 2011".

Mr Shipton gives us gushing news of the rebanding of our First Minister

If you’ve picked up on a change in tone from Carwyn Jones since the Assembly election on May 5, your intuition is not deceiving you.
The First Minister’s image has been carefully tweaked to take note of the new political circumstances – and to counter allegations from opposition parties that he was behaving arrogantly in the last term.
The First Minister’s post-election demeanour is very different. He’s coming across as graciousness personified, accepting that no one party has a monopoly on wisdom or good ideas, and going out of his way to state that tribalism isn’t appropriate.

50% less smug  100% more bullshit

The Mule offers a Labour strategist viewpoint 

“It’s a deliberate change of image for Carwyn and fits with the result of the election. Although winning 29 of the 60 seats was a very good achievement in the circumstances – just one seat down – the drop in the share of the vote was worrying from Labour’s point of view [down from 42.3% in 2011 to 34.7% in the constituency vote and from 36.9% to 31.5% in the regional list vote]. It’s the party’s lowest vote share in Wales for around 100 years. That meant that Carwyn had to show some humility and be magnanimous in victory.
“Parties that have been in power for a long time need to renew themselves. No-one is going to say ‘don’t vote for us so we can renew ourselves in opposition’, and it becomes harder at every election to fend off the allegation that you’ve run out of steam and have no new ideas.
“That’s why the new agreements with Plaid Cymru and Kirsty Williams [the sole remaining Liberal Democrat AM] are very important. They allow Carwyn to appear less tribal and talk about the need for co-operation between ‘progressive’ parties of the centre left.

Of course  this may be a tactic to accuse any criticism of the Welsh Labour Government (*Kirsty) of troublemaking

“Even when Leanne Wood made a tribal response after he was re-nominated as First Minister, Carwyn maintained his conciliatory manner. It made the tone of Leanne’s speech seem inappropriate: it’s difficult to convincingly accuse someone of arrogance when they’re going out of their way not to appear so.”

We will  see but I suspect all the re-banding and re-spining will not change Carwyn and we will get the same Labour's Devise Right to run Wales as usual,