Tomorrow's Election

After due consideration (as they say) I will not  be spoiling my ballot in tomorrows poll for Police and Crime Commissioner by shall be writing in the name of James Gordon  from the Batman TV series but following the advice of  Welsh not British  and writing Devolve policing on my ballot paper.

It will make a much more positive statement.

As far as the elections go it will probably be a clean sweep for Labour in Wales though  Independents Mike Baker in the South Wales area and Winston Roddick in North Wales may just pull of a surprise.

In the Other Elections  Cardiff South  and Penarth should be safe for Labour and my prediction is

Labour – 51%

Conservative – 22%

Plaid – 13%

Lib Dem – 6%

UKIP – 6%

Others -4%

In the Two By-elections the prediction   (or guess) is a bit harder.

On Conwy county borough council:

 Deganwy division after the resignation of a Independent councillor  Jason Weyman. should be a Conservative gain since they already have the other two seats but with 7 candidates the winner may have under 30% of the vote.

On Merthyr Council:

In Cyfarthfa after the resignation of Merthyr Independents councillor Les Elliott.Where Labour hold one seat, Independents one and there's one vacant  it will probably be between 

Margaret Davies Lab and Malcolm Jenkins Ind  who were close  just lost out last time should be the main contenders.

But in all cases local conditions will apply so we may see some shocks.

But  quite frankly it shows the nature of the Police and Crime Commissioner   elections that here in from Beddau the result in Deganwy and Cyfarfthfa is of more interest.

Leanne to bet all in 2016

In one of the boldest moves by any Welsh practician in years Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood has announced  that she will will gamble her safe seat in the Welsh assembly at the next election  by giving up her  regional AM seat  to stand for  a constituency seat in 2016.

Plaid insiders say it is part of a strategy of "going for broke" to get into government.

She has not named the seat she wants to contest, saying it will depend on decisions taken by grassroots members.



Ms Wood told BBC Wales: 

"I'm putting forward myself for a constituency seat because I really believe that Plaid Cymru can win these elections and do very well.
"If we are going to become the biggest party in the assembly - and I've already said that's what we need to do as a party to develop ourselves - then two-thirds of the seats that are constituency seats need to be fought and won by this party."If we are going to do that and we are going to do that seriously then we need to take bold steps in order to do that and by standing for a constituency seat today I'm making the bold move that we need to see in Wales."

BBC 12 November 2012

Her home seat of the Rhondda must be first choice   

At the last election it was however it was a safe win for  Labours Leighton Andrews, who won more a majority of .6,739 (33.6)%

But of course Plaid did win  the seat in 1999

Assembly Election 1999: Rhondda
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Plaid Cymru	Geraint Davies	13,558	48.7	N/A
	Labour	Wayne David	11,273	40.5	N/A
	Liberal Democrats	Meurig Williams	1,303	4.7	N/A
	Independent	Glyndwr Summers	913	3.3	N/A
	Conservative	Peter Hobbins	774	2.8	N/A
Majority			2,285	8.2	N/A
Turnout			27,821	50.2	N/A
	Plaid Cymru win (new seat)C

A considerations could be  Cynon Valley where Christine Chapman enjoys a 6,515 (34.7)% majority  for Labour but who is a low profile AM despite being there since 1997 and might be more vulnerable.

Caerphilly, in the neighbouring region, has been a Plaid target for years . But winning it will mean overturning a smaller Labour majority of 4,924 (19.3% ) still a considerable task 

There's  always Llanelli which must be Plaid's top target in 2016 but this may be too far from Leanne s base.

In some ways it reflects Alex Salmond decision to fight the Gordon seat in 1197 rather than ensure his return to the Scottish Parliament in the 2007 election 

The SNP had finished third in the previous election  with 6,501 (22.6%) of the vote.So it was a big gamble

Scottish Parliament election, 2007: Gordon
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	SNP	Alex Salmond	14,650	41.4	+18.8
	Liberal Democrats	Nora Radcliffe	12,588	35.6	-2.5
	Conservative	Nanette Milne	5,348	15.1	-8.8
	Labour	Neil Cardwell	2,276	6.4	-3.9
	Independent	Donald Marr	199	0.6	N/A
	Independent	Dave Mathers	185	0.5	N/A
	Scottish Enterprise	Bob Ingram	117	0.3	N/A
Majority			2,062	5.8
Turnout			35,363	54.1	+6.6
	SNP gain from Liberal Democrats		Swing

 The argument may be that Leanne Wood is no Alex Salmond  but the decision may well hugely raise her profile to come close enough.

Of course it is probably to early to speculate to deeply as it is still possible the Assembly boundaries may change to a 30 -30 constituency rather than the 40-20 we have now and if the former is adopted and we have 6 regional members per the 5 regions Leanne may just reconsider.

Nevertheless this a Bold announcement an a very big gamble; But if it comes of then there will be a major change in the welsh political scene . 

At least it will make the 2016 elections interesting.

Salmond still top dog.

Even after a bad month for Alex Salmond As Better Nation Reports  he is still the most popular political figure in Scotland by a mile.

Between Oct 10 and Oct 12 the polling company YouGov. conducted a survey of 1,000 Scots and asked, amongst other questions, the following questions

In general, which government do you think is better 
at making decisions for Scotland?

The UK government 24
The Scottish government 64
Don't know 12

Which ONE of the following people do you think 
would be best at standing up for Scotland's 
interests?

Alex Salmond  SNP 43
Johann Lamont Labour 6
Ruth Davidson Con 5
Willie Rennie  LibDem2
None of these 24
Don't know 21

As Better Nation point out its a pity we don't see a clearer breakdown of the None of These and in particular  Green party leader Patrick Harvie who impressed me during the last Scottish Parliamentary Elections.

Clearly the majority of Scots of Scots believe that the Scottish Government is best for them . Though it would be interesting to compare similar polls to when Labour were in power.

However I suspect that the opposition leaders would have rated higher than a combined 13%

One of the  most interesting  surveys was on the economics of Independence,


The ‘Yes’ campaign is deploying a series of 
arguments as part of their campaign to achieve a 
‘Yes’ vote for an independent Scotland in the 
referendum in 2014 – for example they point to 
statistics showing that Scotland generates 9.6% of 
UK taxes, but receives just 9.3% of UK spending in 
return. If the ‘Yes’ campaign could persuade you that 
you and your family would be economically better off 
with Scottish independence, in these circumstances, 
how likely or unlikely would you be to vote ‘Yes’ for 
an independent Scotland in 2014?

Very likely 30
Fairly likely 15
TOTAL LIKELY 45
Neither likely nor unlikely 10
Fairly unlikely 9
Very unlikely 27
TOTAL UNLIKELY 36
Don't know 9

So there's a significant pro-independence vote if the Yes campaign can persuade voters they were financially better of in an Independent Scotland.

How they can do this ?

They could argue on the current economic settlement but both sides will be twisting the figures to suit their argument.

They could compare Scotland to the likes of Norway even pointing out how Iceland have managed to pull themselves out of the mess that they were in due to the financial crisis.

Or they could argue that Independence would create the very dynamics and optimism  that Scotland to declare the the world that they are worth investigating.

In other words the economic case doesn't have to be there now. Independence will create the economic case.

Newsnight Scandal: Is it a inevitable result of cuts?

So George Entwistle has resigned in the wake of the two Newsnight Scandals firstly for failing to broadcast a Newsnight investigation into the allegations against the presenter Jimny Saville

Something the Tabloid Media tool delight in reporting on . Though none offer an explanation why they didn't report on Saville after his death or even his life time. Indeed maybe the  Saville  inquiry should look  not only the BBC but the rest of the Media. Who seemed not to act on the rumours about Saville considering their willingness to expose Celebratory lifestyles.

The latest  Newsnight Scandal  xame about when the programme ran l story on the renewed  North Wales child abuse scandal and implicated a senior Tory from the Thatcher era without naming him

However  it does seem that  the allegation  pointed to Lord McAlpine , who was being named on various websites,

Why the BBC failed to contact Lord McAlpine  to put the allegations to him is highly questionable  but Newsnight presenter Jeremy Paxman may have pointed to one area which may point to their failings

He said.....

 George Entwistle’s departure is a great shame. He has been brought low by cowards and incompetents.
The real problem here is the BBC’s decision, in the wake of the Hutton Inquiry, to play safe by appointing biddable people.
They then compounded the problem by enforcing a series of cuts on programme budgets, while bloating the management.
That is how you arrive at the current mess on Newsnight. I very much doubt the problem is unique to that programme
I had hoped that George might stay to sort this out. It is a great pity that a talented man has been sacrificed while time-servers prosper. I shall not be issuing any further statements or doing any interviews.

We do need to ask  how much cut in the grassroots journalism at Newsnight and indeed the rest of the media means that the double or even triple checking of investigative journalism is not being carrying out.

The news night scandal over McAlpine has unfortunately drawn attention from another shocjking oiece of journalism ( though thats not the word to call it)  of David Cameron being  confronted on Thursday by presenter Phillip Schofield on ITV's This Morning with a list of names of he claimed he had downloaded from the internet and listed politician who  may be involved in child abuse.

The Prime Minister responded that accusations of paedophilia against senior Tories risk becoming a witch-hunt against people who are gay

And he was right of course indeed Schofield nay have done great damage in his stunt..

• Firstly perfectly innocent people may be accused either by mistake or even malice and suffer from the belief that" there's no smoke without fire" for the rest of their lives

• And if the list of false allegations or speculation  grows the guilty may be able to hide from justice and claim thy are a victim of a witch-hunt.

We need to get to the bottom of this story instigate a complete and thorough inquiry and make sure that it is not undermined by amateur , slipshod or under resourced journalism,

Plaid and Labour in Agreement?

In a a speech that he made yesterday Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones, warned that  "a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union could “bolster” the campaign to break up the UK.

The First Minister said ...

Imagine a referendum on the European Union which resulted in a vote to leave, carried by the weight of English votes against the preferences of other parts of the UK to remain in membership.
“That would put us under enormous strain, and could only serve the interests of those who wanted the United Kingdom to cease to exist.
“It is ironic that those who are pressing for an ‘in-out’ referendum on the grounds of their commitment to the United Kingdom may actually be imperilling the very future of the UK as presently constituted.”
Mr Jones warned that the break-up of the UK would be “a matter of grave concern to the majority of people in Wales”.

Westermail November 8 2012

Interestingly  Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards, also said he expects the independence debate to be transformed if a majority of English voters want to cut links with Brussels but the Welsh electorate votes to stay in the EU.

He said: 

“If there is an in-out [referendum] and a Yes in Wales and a No in England, my guess is I think that would make the case for Welsh independence clearly. Wales is a europhile country – there’s no doubt about that.

“If there was divergence and the people [of Wales] were removed from the EU as a result of votes of the people of England, that would increase demands for Welsh independence.”

Western Mail November 4 2012 

The great Peter Black dismissed this as wishful thinking by Plaid in his Blog 

Today the Western Mail reports that on the belief of Jonathan Edwards MP that demand for independence could soar if England votes to quit the EU in a future referendum but Wales and Scotland vote to stay in. he goes on to predict that eurosceptic Conservative MPs may have to choose between fighting to leave the EU or battling to hold the UK together. Really? 
The number of leaps in imagination just to get to this point is startling, but yes, I have to admit it is one scenario that might have to be considered at some stage in the future, though I cannot see Welsh voters opting for independence even under those circumstances. The tern wishful thinking was invented for this piece.

Peter Black November 5 2012

So what's Peter take on Carwyn  depicting the same scenario ?  Doom forecasting?

Watching the Europhobe Tories in the recent debate over the EU budget  it would not take a great deal of imagination for the party to split over Europe especial if UKIP keep eating into their votes.

The possibility of a referendum on Europe whether in-out or on returning powers could see a vote to leave the EU .

I'm not sure that Wales is as europhile as Carwyn Jones thinks, but I suspect that the Welsh electorate,  will largely  realise that Wales would probably be  more inclined to stay in, than the affluent South East of England.

Carwyn Jones and Jonathan Edwards may think the result may be the same if England votes out and Wales to stay in Europe but have different views on whether it will be good for Wales.

Mind you what would Carwyn Jones think we should do remain part of a Ring Wing Isolationist  UK which (or whats left ) would be little more than a US outpost or stay with Europe as an Independent country?

Peter Black seems to think we shouldn't even think about it.

Plaid-Labour in Budget deal.

So its Plaid who did the deal with Labour over the  £15bn Welsh Assembly Budget.

The BBC reports that .....

The Labour-Plaid deal adds an extra £20m to the draft budget for next year to spend on apprenticeships for 16-24-year-olds.The same amount has been included in indicative plans for the following year and there will be an attempt to secure EU funding to boost the commitment.
Science parkThe two sides also agreed £10m of capital over two years for a science park involving Bangor and Aberystwyth universities.

BBC  8 November 2012 

Interestingly Gareth Hughes comments on his Blog

So the price of the deal is £25m a year over two years. £5m more than last year’s deal with the Liberal Democrats.
The £20m accord with the Liberal Democrats last year was described by Plaid as the “Lib Dems have sold their support very cheaply."
So the going rate in Welsh politics between a good deal and one that is cheap is £5m. So there you have it. The formula for agreeing budgets in Wales.

Of course Gareth being a Labour supporter doesn't tell us what he thinks an opposition should seek in any deal and we are not talking coalition here so any wish list from an opposition party is limited.

At some time the budget had to be passed and although Labour does not have a majority it is by far the largest Party and should be allowed to set the agenda though not complete control it.

Structure
Members	60
Political groups	Government      Labour (30) Opposition Parties      Conservative (14)      Plaid Cymru (11)      Liberal Democrat (5)

I'm not saying that a party that doesn't have a majority should be able to simply pass its draft budget, but there must be a limit to what the opposition can ask.

Indeed the problem is that the opposition simply use the annual draft budget  it to calls for more expenditure on Health and Education popular with the public politically. But these two departments  already take up the vast majority of the Assembly expenditure and how much can be taking from other sources in order that La Pasionaria can have a decent sound bite and her colleague Peter Black a chance to spin on his blog?

It may be that Plaid have sold their support cheaply but not I think worthlessly and the money is going to areas which are neglected.

Only a Plaid spin doctor would claim this a brilliant deal but it may be the best under the circumstances.

However before the oppositions attack the deal perhaps they can tel us where they drew the line in the sand with Labour and whether it it wasn't simply a call for more money for the NHS.

Police and Crime Commissioner. Who should I back?

With a week to go to the most exiting elections ever.That of  Police and Crime Commissioner. I'm in a quandary what to do.

With no election addresse  delivered as yet for South Wales, I have resorted to checking the candidates websites. None of which have inspired me  and certainly not to  someone the candidates would probably consider to be a wishy washy liberal.

So what are my options?

• Vote for the best :(as I see it) of the group of f six pretty hard to sort out and even with two votes I doubt I can find one candidate who I can endorse.as second choice let alone first. And of course you have to vote for a first choice before a second choice although you can abstain from the latter.

• Spoil my ballot paper :. In a previous post I suggested tongue in cheek that I could write in the name of James Gordon  from the Batman comics.Would a large number of spoiled ballot papers which are clearly meant to show our displeasure rather than confusion with the electoral system have any effect and be reported on?

• Not vote: Would being part of the estimated 80% who could not be bothered to vote in this farce be a clearer indication of what I think of these elections?

Since I believe you should always vote if possible . I will be writing in the name of James Gordon on the ballot paper. A puerile and futile gesture may be but is it better than voting for a candidate ate who I don't really support for a position I don't believe should exist?