Wednesday, 4 January 2017

Labour can't win a UK General Election and need to help build alliances.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens has rejected as "utter nonsense" the idea Labour cannot win a general election.
Ms Stevens said Labour could win if it was "bold and credible and radical enough" in its manifesto and policies.
Er Bold like Carwyn Jones and the "Labour"not a coalition?
Wales has suffered  for years from the lethargic government of Carwyn Jones who strategy seems to be to rely on the fact they are not the Tories
A Fabian Society report said the party was "too weak" to take power without support from other parties. and it is “unthinkable” that Labour will win a majority at the next election so it must be able to form a governing partnership with other parties, 

Its polling analysis suggests Labour’s share of the vote could fall to 20%, sending its number of MPs tumbling from 231 today to as few as 140.
Andrew Harrop, the General Secretary of the Fabian Society and the author of the report, argues that “a wounded Labour party will have to get used to the idea that it will need to work alongside others”.
Winning a majority of one would require an electoral swing of 8.7%, compared to the 4.6% that was required in 2015.
Mr Harrop writes:
 “In other words, Labour is around twice as far from victory as it was in the run up to 2015... [With] fewer Labour seats to start with and fewer competitive marginals, the mountain Labour has to climb is both higher and steeper.”
However, he does not think the Labour is in danger of losing its position as the second biggest party in the Commons, arguing the First Past the Post electoral system provides a “firebreak”.
Ms Stevens said Labour could win if it was "bold and credible and radical enough" in its manifesto and policies.
 Speaking ahead of the launch of his report, Stuck: How Labour is Too Weak to Win, and Too Strong to Die, Mr Harrop said: 

“As things stand Labour is on track to win fewer than 200 seats, whether the next election comes this year or in 2020. Even if Labour recovers it has almost no chance of securing a majority in a general election, because it needs over three million more votes than the Conservatives to win.“Labour’s aim for now should be to move forwards not back and win enough MPs to be able to form a governing partnership with other parties.”
 Ms Stevens, the MP for Cardiff Central, rejected the study's claim that Labour could only take power at Westminster with the backing of other parties.

"If Labour is bold and credible and radical enough in the manifesto and the policies it puts to the country, then Labour can beat the Tories by itself," she said.
"Obviously the polls at the moment aren't suggesting that, but if we don't have an election until 2020 who knows what's going to happen between now and then.
"Look at what happened last year. Politics is very unpredictable at the moment."

 I suspect that the Anti-Corbyn faction in Labour will see this as a means to blame the labour leader for the seeming collapse in vote in the polls.

Though the Fabian report suggest because of the Tories Gerrymandering of constituencies together with changes in voter registration  and the possibility of Identification having to be shown in order to vote means that the figures do not add up to a labour victory no matter who leads the party.

Labour Aberavon MP rStephen Kinnock said: 

"The Fabians report is absolutely right that unless Labour urgently gets its act together on Brexit, and particularly on the need to reform free movement of labour, then we shall continue our current drift towards electoral irrelevance."But it is very difficult to see how the multi-party alliances that the report recommends would work in practice.
"Would the price of an alliance with the SNP be that Labour would have to support Scottish nationalism, for example?
"Or would joining forces with the Lib Dems mean that we'd have to commit to a second EU referendum?
"Labour must instead focus relentlessly on starting to send some clear, coherent and consistent messages to the British people about the security and opportunity that we offer, as a credible opposition and party of government."
Plaid Cymru Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP Jonathan Edwards said his party’s MPs would be open to discussions but the ball was in Labour’s court.
He said: 
“It’s inconceivable at the moment to see how Labour could win a majority in the House of Commons on its own and therefore the Labour party really needs to drop some of its very tribal and sectarian baggage... The reality of the situation is that the political environment has completely changed from the two-party state in the UK.”
As I said  it will be unfortunate for those in Labour  to use this to once again try and replace the leader.

The Media will attack any Labour leader at the moment . no matter how they pander to the right wing agenda of the Mail,Express .Sun and the rest.

The current darling of the Media in the Corbyn needs replacing is Sir Keir StarmerKCBQC (born 2 September 1962) is a British politician and barrister.

 Since the 2015 General Election, he has been the Labour Member of Parliament for Holborn and St Pancras

How long into his leadership  will we see attacks on Mr Starmer  who although He was the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) and the Head of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) from 2008 to 2013. Acted  principally as a defence lawyer specialising in human rights issues.[


In 2007 he represented two alleged terrorists in a case in the House of Lords in which he successfully challenged their control orders on human rights grounds He has also acted in 15 other cases in the House of Lords since 1999, including two cases about the conduct of British soldiers in Iraq, and representing David Shayler in his appeal against conviction for breaching the Official Secrets Act 1989.

Labour must realise that in order to get change then it needs to work with other parties and relying on the First Past the Post system to keep them as the main Opposition Party no matter how low their percentage vote falls.

If Labour is going to work with other parties in a Progressive Coalition  then the introduction of proportional representation is a must in a long list of reforms we need.

Unfortunately there is a belief in some quarters of the Labour Party that just as the Thatcher era came to and end  then if only they can wait for a desire for change any change for a new party in government  then with a Leader who can appeal to "Middle England" will propel them back in to government as it did in 1997.

The Fabian report suggest that this is unlikely  and the soonest Labour realise that to defeat  the Tories as the Natural Party of Government they can't do it alone,




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