Friday, 25 October 2013

Labour gain Dunfermline as expected.


Labour have gained the Dunfermline Scottish Parliamentary seat from the SNP  in the By-Election 

Cara Hilton (Lab) 10,275 (42.46%, +6.89%)
Shirley-Anne Somerville (SNP) 7,402 (30.59%, -6.99%)
Susan Leslie (LD) 2,852 (11.79%, -7.93%)
James Reekie (C) 2,009 (8.30%, +1.16%)
Peter Adams (UKIP) 908 (3.75%)
Zara Kitson (Green) 593 (2.45%)
John Black (Ind) 161 (0.67%)
Lab maj 2,873 (11.87%)
6.94% swing SNP to Lab
Electorate 56,743; Turnout 24,200 (42.65%, -10.16%)

2011: SNP maj 590 (2.01%) - Turnout 29,299 (52.81%)
Walker (SNP) 11,010 (37.58%)
 Rowley (Lab) 10,420 (35.56%);
 Tolson (LD) 5,776 (19.71%);
 Reekie (C) 2,093 (7.14%)

This was a seat Labour would have ben in serious trouble in Scotland if it had failed to win

They needed a 1% swing   but managed a 7% swing 
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of shamed politician Bill Walker who won the seat in 2011, who was jailed last month for abusing his three ex-wives.
The 7% swing is just enough to make it look a real victory though prior to the byelection most would have expected because of the jailing of Bill walker a Landslide.

It had been expected that the then new seat of Dunfermline  would be between Labour and the Liberal Democrats but saw Bill Walker win with a nominal swing.

Scottish Parliament election, 2011: Dunfermline
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
SNPBill Walker11,01037.6+13.5
LabourAlex Rowley10,42035.6+2.7
Liberal DemocratsJim Tolson5,77619.7-13.5
ConservativeJames Reekie2,0937.1-1.2
Majority5902
Turnout2929952.5
SNP gain from Liberal DemocratsSwing+5.4

Scottish Parliament election, 2007 Notional Result: Dunfermline
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Democrats9,03033.2
Labour8,95332.9
SNP6,55324.1
Conservative2,2778.4
Others4061.5
Majority770.3

So maybe it was the Liberal Democrats who are the biggest looser here. Again no sign of a recovery and they have been pushed to the margins of Scottish Politics.
The Conservatives will be pleased that they held their ground and held of Ukip who clearly were rejected once again in a Scottish Election.
So delight for Labour a win is a win after all
Relief perhaps from the SNP it what have been so much worse.
Question for the Lib Dems in where do they go fro here?.
And shrugs from the other parties .
We however can glean very little from this result to tel us which way the Independence  referendum will go.


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