Friday, 6 July 2012

Latest ITV (Wales)poll


The  Latest ITV Wales  (Does it still exist)  Poll show an apparent Major rise in support for UKIP in Wales .

According to the poll the voting intentions for the Assembly are as follows

Constituency
  • Labour 50% (up 8%)
  • Conservatives 19% (down 6%)
  • Plaid Cymru 17% (down 2%)
  • Liberal Democrats 7% (down 4%)
  • Others 8% (up 5%)
This seem largely in line with the recent local authority elections with voters from all Parties turning to Labour as they benefit from being in opposition.

The big shock is in the Regional List
Regional list
  • Labour 35% (down 2%)
  • Plaid Cymru 20% (up 2%)
  • UKIP 12% (up 7%)
  • Conservatives 11% (down 12%)
  • Liberal Democrats 8% (no change)
  • Greens 7% (up 4%)
  • Others 6% (no change)
This ses a big rise in the vote for UKIP  and Plaid taking second place . I may be wrong but I suspect that the rise in UKIP voters may come largely from those who did not vote in the Assembly Elections last time . However they clearly have benefited from the adverse conditions in the European Economy and it might well translate into votes but it seems that it is the Tories will suffer from this as their vote collapses.

It is difficult to work out just how exactly this wil affect the make up of the assembly if this was reflected in the next Assembly election. . But according to Dr Dennis Balsomby Dr Denis Balsom, the editor of The Wales Yearbook  the result would translate as.


eat Prediction
  • Labour 33 (up 3),
  •  Plaid Cymru 13 (up 2)
  • UKIP 5 (up 5),
  • Conservatives 5 (down 9) 
  • Liberal Democrats 4 (down 1).
The Westminster Elections would see Labour strengthen their grip on Wales with the Liberal Democrats being wiped out in Wales.

Westminster election intentions
Labour 54% (up 18%)
Conservatives 23% (down 3%)
Plaid Cymru 10% (down 1%)
Liberal Democrats 4% (down 16%)
Others 9% (up 3%)

For Labour the message seems to be. Don't carry out to many Hospital downgrades and hope that there a slight improvement in Education and School statistics and there should be no problem . Just rely on the unpopularity on the Westminster Parliament. Indeed carry on with thier current letargy.

For Plaid this poll may give some comfort but it seems that there is as yet no real bounce since Leanne Wood became leader and one suspects that the Party members will be hoping for major policy innovations  soon or at least at the Party's autumn conference.

The Tories wil not like these polls they may hope that they can regain the UKIP voters or not lose anymore to them.

For the LibDems it looks very bad . They are heading for disaster in both elections and it would be difficult for them to recover from this. Their only hope is to continue plugging away on Health and Education in the Assembly or try to avoid the Toxic effect of Westminster politics by entering into coalition with Labour in the Assembly now.

For UKIP the poll loks encouraging and may remain so if the Euro crisis continues to 2016 (when the next assembly election takes place. But with elections to the Europeam Parliament next week thay should be confident of keeping thier remaining Euro MP in Wales.

But as Harold Wulson said "A week is along time in Poltics ."and it it is far to soon to malke any prediction with confidence.

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