La Pasionaria (Kirsty Williams) to stand down from Senedd.

 So sole Welsh Liberal Democrat Senedd member and Education Minister Kirsty Williams has announced she is stepping down at next May's election.

Ms Williams is the only Lib Dem in the Welsh Parliament and has represented Brecon and Radnorshire since the then Assembly first met 1999.

She said she was "looking forward to spending more time with my family".

"There is, of course, sadness in making this decision, but also with a sense of achievement and pride," Ms Williams said.

"I remain committed to my role in Brecon and Radnorshire and look forward to continuing to campaign with my successor to ensure Brecon and Radnorshire returns a Welsh Liberal Democrat voice."

She said she had taken the decision "after a great deal of thought and reflection".

In 2006 she was voted member to watch leading to this cartoon

On the opposition benches she was one of the most effective , to the extent that I nicknamed her La Pasionaria especially when it came to the NHS and Education.

However the Mumph carton has proven prophetic as there is only one of her and without any colleagues chances of  getting called to speak would be small.

So Ms Williams is in Labour First Minister Mark Drakeford's cabinet, in a continuation of a deal originally agreed by previous Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones following the 2016 election..

She has an undoubtable personal  following in her constituency 

Welsh Assembly Election 2016: Brecon and Radnorshire^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Democrats	Kirsty Williams	15,898	52.4	+9.3
	Conservative	Gary Price	7,728	25.4	−7.9
	Labour	Alex Thomas	2,703	8.9	−8.0
	UKIP	Thomas Turton	2,161	7.1	+7.1
	Plaid Cymru	Freddy Greaves	1,180	3.9	−2.8
	Green	Grenville Ham	697	2.3	+2.3
Majority			8,170	27	+17.3
Turnout			30,367	56.5	+3.6
	Liberal Democrats hold		Swing	+8.6

but whether it will reflect on her successor may doubtful in 2019 the Liberal Democrats gained the seat only to lose it a few months later 

2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election^[33][34][35]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Democrats	Jane Dodds	13,826	43.5	+14.4
	Conservative	Christopher Davies	12,401	39.0	−9.6
	Brexit Party	Des Parkinson	3,331	10.5	N/A
	Labour	Tom Davies	1,680	5.3	−12.4
	Monster Raving Loony	Lady Lily the Pink	334	1.0	N/A
	UKIP	Liz Phillips	242	0.7	−0.7
Rejected ballots			73
Majority			1,425	4.5	N/A
Turnout			31,814	59.7	−17.2
Registered electors
	Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative		Swing	+12.0

vote share are compared to the 2017 general election, not the 2019 by-election.

General election 2019: Brecon and Radnorshire^[36][37][38]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Fay Jones	21,958	53.1	+4.5
	Liberal Democrats	Jane Dodds	14,827	35.9	+6.8
	Labour	Tomos Davies	3,944	9.5	−8.2
	Monster Raving Loony	Lady Lily the Pink	345	0.8	N/A
	Christian	Jeff Green	245	0.6	N/A
Rejected ballots			110
Majority			7,131	17.2	−2.3
Turnout			41,319	74.5	-2.4
Registered electors			55,490
	Conservative hold		Swing	-1.1

Based on the last Welsh polls here are the figures for the constituency ballot (with changes in support since June once again indicated in brackets):

Labour: 34% (no change)

Conservatives: 29% (-2)

Plaid Cymru: 24% (+2)

Brexit Party: 4% (+1)

Liberal Democrats: 3% (-2)

Greens: 3% (no change)

Others: 3% (no change)

And fo the region

Labour: 33% (+1)

Conservatives: 27% (-1)

Plaid Cymru: 23% (-1)

Abolish the Assembly: 4% (no change)

Brexit Party: 4% (+1)

Greens: 4% (+1)

Liberal Democrats: 3% (-2)

Others: 2% (+1)

So if the Liberal Democrats where to loose Brecon and Radnor , then the chances of making it up making it up in the Mid and West Wales region (currently predicted as  3 Labour, 1 Conservative) could see another party gaining a seat rather than the Liberal Democrats , who are predicted to wn no regional seats.

An astonishing result which could see the Liberal Democrats with no Parliamentary seats in neither Westminster nor Cardiff.

Of course Ms Williams may be considering running for Westminster but that will not  be Thursday 2 May 2024, in line with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. and three years without a platform may see her personal  following fade.

Mr Drakeford said of La Pasionaria's  departure would..

.."leave an enormous hole - not just in the Welsh Government but in the Senedd and in Welsh political life".

"She was a formidable politician in opposition but she has demonstrated her real strength has been in putting into practice the progressive policies for which she has long argued," he said.

Paul Davies, Conservative leader in the Welsh Parliament, said she had been a

"tireless champion of her constituency and a passionate and formidable politician over the last two decades."

Plaid Cymru education spokeswoman Siân Gwenllian said: 

"Her contribution to the Senedd has been significant, not least in the legacy she will leave in ensuring women's voices were heard clearly from the outset, and all this whilst raising a family - certainly no mean feat!"  

 Political Obituaries , are nearly always praiseworthy , but in the case of La Pasionaria (probably the last time I use it) it is heartfelt.

"Welsh" Greens to campaign for Independence.

 Even though you tend to  support one political party , there are times when you consider switching your vote if you feel that that party has gone in the wrong direction, has become tired and stale , or you feel it needs a good kick up the ass.

For Independista in Wales for a good while  there has been no alternative to Plaid Cymru but it now seems there are three.

GWLAD are a centre-right party though they claim "We will not tie ourselves to an ideology ", which rises my suspicion and have in the past labelled progressive politics as "Cultural Marxism" and suport Brexit.

The Welsh National Party  also seem to eschew ideology, apart from Independence , but seem to a populist party centred around Neil McEvoy who in January 2018 he was expelled from the Plaid Cymru group in the Welsh Assembly,^] with a spokesperson stating that "his ongoing behaviour has left Assembly Member colleagues feeling undermined and demoralised".

Now there seems a new/old party on the independence scene with the The Green Party in Wales has voted in favour of backing Welsh independence at a future referendum.

At the Wales Green Party conference last week  members voted in favour of the amendment: “In the event of a referendum on Welsh independence, the Wales Green Party commits to campaigning in favour of seceding from the United Kingdom.”

Emily Durrant, the Green Party County Councillor for Llangors ward in Powys and their candidate in Mid and West Wales at next year’s Senedd elections, said that it was “a huge day for the party and an important day for me personally”.

The Wales Green Party is a semi-autonomous political party within the Green Party of England and Wales.

The current Leader of the Wales Green Party is Anthony Slaughter, with Duncan Rees and Lauren James as Deputy Leaders.

Wales-wide decisions are taken by the Wales Green Party Council which is composed of the spokespeople, elected officers, and a representative from each local party.

In his speech at today’s conference, Anthony Slaughter said they were aiming to elect their first Senedd Member at next May’s elections.

“This is our chance, our opportunity to get our radical message heard, to truly engage with the people of Wales, with our communities, to challenge the stale ‘business as usual’ status quo,” he said.

“This will be our chance, our opportunity to make that historic breakthrough and get the elected Green representation in the Senedd that Wales so desperately needs.

“These challenging times demand urgent and radical action. Warm words and soundbite slogans are not enough.

“Wales Green Party’s bold and ambitious plans for a Green New Deal for Wales will deliver the changes needed in Wales, providing safe, secure lives for all and ensuring carbon reduction targets are reached at the scale and pace needed to tackle the Climate Emergency.”

This may help some Plaid supporters  to give their second vote to the Greens as has happened with some Independistas  in Scotland backing the Scottish Greens on the regional list vote.

Constituency 

Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted	Sample size	SNP	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Green	UKIP	Brexit	Other	Lead
Ipsos MORI/STV News	2–9 Oct 2020	1,045	58%	13%	19%	8%	1%	–	–	2%	39%
Savanta ComRes	9 Oct 2020	1,003	50%	18%	23%	6%	–	–	–	2%	27%
Survation	2–7 Sep 2020	1,018	53%	18%	20%	7%	–	–	–	2%	33%
Savanta ComRes	6–13 Aug 2020	1,008	51%	17%	24%	6%	–	–	–	2%	27%
YouGov/The Times	6–10 Aug 2020	1,142	57%	14%	20%	8%	1%	–	–	1%	37%

s

Regional List

Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted	Sample size	SNP	Con	Lab	Green	Lib Dem	UKIP	Brexit	SSP	Other	Lead
Ipsos MORI/STV News	2–9 Oct 2020	1,045	48%	18%	14%	9%	8%	–	–	–	–	28%
Savanta ComRes	9 Oct 2020	1,003	41%	21%	18%	11%	7%	–	–	–	1%	20%
Survation	2–7 Sep 2020	1,018	42%	18%	18%	10%	8%	2%	2%	–	<1%	24%
Savanta ComRes	6–13 Aug 2020	1,008	43%	21%	17%	10%	8%	–	–	–	2%	22%
YouGov/The Times	6–10 Aug 2020	1,142	47%	21%	14%	6%	7%	–	1%	4%	1%	26%

As you can see the fall of 10 in the SNP is matched by a rise in the Green vote  , which could suggest , that it  voters see that a SNP landslide in the constituency vote would move that their vote is wasted in the regional list vote.

Now there is a caveat in that not all the Scottish Greens  support Independence but what matters here is that their MSP  vote for a second referendum.

However this is not replicated in Wales Plaid are not heading for a Landside and can't afford to lose votes on the Regional list .

However things change and if the move towards YES in Wales continues going there may be a time , when the Green/Independence vote grows.

However for it to do so they need to emulate the Scottish Greens and become an Independent Party.

It is a Catch22 dilemma they need to extend their Welsh membership in order to become a separate party , but  unless they do they will be also rans when it comes to Parties backing Independence,