Cock Up or Conspiracy Labours failed 2019 GE strategy in Wales

I don't know whether  the revelation made by the Sunday Times that  Welsh Labour’s General Secretary tried to warn the party that they had their 2019 General Election campaign strategy in Wales wrong, according to a leaked document shows that it was part of a conspiracy by some Labour Strategists to sabotage the 2019 Election in order to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn and his left supporters 

However you would be forgiven if you felt that way , because if it was a Cock Up instead of a conspiracy , one wonders about Labour capacity to run a government.

Nation Cymru report that 

"UK Labour’s Key Seats Strategy from September 2019 election was posted online by Gabriel Pogrund, the Sunday Times’ Whitehall Correspondent.

It reveals that the party were planning on defending zero seats in Wales, even though their own polling showed 18 constituencies were in great danger of falling to other parties – including 15 to the Conservatives, two to the Lib Dems and one to the Brexit Party.

According to the document, the Welsh General Secretary, Louise Magee, raised concerns about the strategy.

“The Welsh General Secretary expressed her concern about the absence of any defensive seats on the list in Wales,” the document says.

“She thought all of Gower, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham, Ynys Môn, and Cardiff North were potentially in need of resourcing, above all given recent Welsh polling, and that although she understood the rationale and supported the objective, she did wonder whether a slightly more defensive posture would be appropriate given that we had a Welsh Labour government and therefore our campaign in Wales would not have the insurgent character of an election campaign in England.”

Louise Magee was eventually proven right, as the Labour Party lost six seats, each of which was won by the Conservative Party.

The strategy as set out in the document however was to go on the offensive in Aberconwy, Arfon, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Clwyd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan.

Bizarrely, however, the document’s MRP polling approach had the Conservatives winning in Arfon, the Liberal Democrats in Aberconwy and the Vale of Glamorgan (where they did not stand), and the Brexit Party winning Dwyfor Meirionnydd, all seats where those parties were not in contention.

 Perhaps the most ridiculous idea was the Brexut Party winning Dwyfor Merionidd, who had voted Remain in the Referendum and  Ukip , from where the Brexit Party emerged had not fared well even at their hights 

General election 2015: Dwyfor Meirionnydd^[4][5][6][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Liz Saville Roberts	11,811	40.9	-3.4
	Conservative	Neil Fairlamb	6,550	22.7	+0.4
	Labour	Mary Clarke	3,904	13.5	-0.4
	UKIP	Christopher Gillibrand[8]	3,126	10.8	+8.1
	Independent	Louise Hughes	1,388	4.8	+0.3
	Liberal Democrats	Steven Churchman	1,153	4.0	-8.2
	Green	Marc Fothergill	981	3.4	N/A
Majority			5,261	18.2	-3.8
Turnout			28,913	65.1	+1.4
Registered electors			44,394
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	-1.9

General election 2017: Dwyfor Meirionnydd^[9][10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Liz Saville Roberts	13,687	45.1	+4.2
	Conservative	Neil Fairlamb	8,837	29.1	+6.4
	Labour	Mathew Norman	6,273	20.7	+7.2
	Liberal Democrats	Stephen Churchman	937	3.1	-0.9
	UKIP	Frank Wykes	614	2.0	-8.8
Majority			4,850	16.0	-2.2
Turnout			30,312	68.0	+2.9
Registered electors			44,699
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	-1.1

The same could be said or the Tories in Arfon

General election 2015: Arfon^[9][10][11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Hywel Williams	11,790	43.9	+7.9
	Labour	Alun Pugh	8,122	30.3	-0.1
	Conservative	Anwen Barry[12]	3,521	13.1	-3.8
	UKIP	Simon Wall	2,277	8.5	+5.9
	Liberal Democrats	Mohammed Shultan	718	2.7	-11.4
	Socialist Labour	Kathrine Jones	409	1.5	N/A
Majority			3,668	13.7	+8.1
Turnout			26,837	66.3	+3.0
Registered electors			40,492
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	+4.0

General election 2017: Arfon^[13][14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Hywel Williams	11,519	40.8	-3.1
	Labour	Mary Clarke	11,427	40.5	+10.2
	Conservative	Philippa Parry	4,614	16.4	+3.3
	Liberal Democrats	Calum Davies	648	2.3	-0.4
Majority			92	0.3	-13.4
Turnout			28,208	68.2	+1.9
Registered electors			41,367
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	-6.7

and the Liberal Democrats in Aberconwy

General election 2015: Aberconwy^[6][7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Guto Bebb	12,513	41.5	+5.7
	Labour	Mary Wimbury	8,514	28.2	+3.7
	Plaid Cymru	Dafydd Meurig	3,536	11.7	−6.1
	UKIP	Andrew Haigh	3,467	11.5	+9.4
	Liberal Democrats	Victor Babu[8]	1,391	4.6	−14.7
	Green	Petra Haig[9]	727	2.4	N/A
Rejected ballots			59
Majority			3,999	13.3	+2.0
Turnout			30,148	66.2	-1.0
Registered electors			45,525
	Conservative hold		Swing	+1.0

General election 2017: Aberconwy^[10][11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Guto Bebb	14,337	44.6	+3.1
	Labour	Emily Owen	13,702	42.6	+14.4
	Plaid Cymru	Wyn Elis Jones	3,170	9.9	−1.8
	Liberal Democrats	Sarah Leister-Burgess	941	2.9	−1.7
Rejected ballots			78
Majority			635	2.0	−10.7
Turnout			32,150	71.0	+4.8
Registered electors			45,251
	Conservative hold		Swing	−5.7

In the end Labour were accused of concentrating on Arfon by bussing activists from Liverpool  into the constituency held by Plaid Cymru .On their way there they bypassed several Labour marginal seat closer to home, such as Wrexham.

Now, if Hywel Williams the Plaid Cymru MP was a dreadful right-wing nationalist that might have been understandable, but if they had actually checked his record on the They Work For You website, they would have found a voting record on major issues that would please the vast majority of Labour supporters.

Of course, as a result of this terrible campaign Hywel Williams increased his majority, Labour lost all but one of their ‘red wall’ of seats across the north of Wales to the Conservatives.

Cock Up or Conspiracy? Probably a bit of both , I can't believe that Labour strategist were so out of touch that they could not identify the seats to concentrate on but it actually appears so . though I suspect Wales is often of the Radar , from their London HQ an outlook which has led to their demise in Scotland.

Labour seem to be relying on Blair 1997 strategy of seeing the Tories lose an election rathr than them winning it .

However whilst the scandals and incompetence of the 1992-1997 John Major  are being repeated , they don't seem to actually affecting , the  actaul polling.

Of course unlike Blair  Keir Stammar has not completely sold his soul to Rupert Murdoch and the rest of the  right wing media, but it can't be long now.

Plaid need to ensure their Regional Lists Candidates are strong.

 As the Parties in Wales face selecting  candidates for next years Senedd Election , for Plaid Cymru in particular the selection and ranking for the list of candidates for regional  seats become a bit more important than usual.

If the Party is to make a breakthrough in the election then at the moment , then the are probably a maximum of  8 seats they can realistically win on the constituency level.

This means they must win an exceptional number of seats on the Regional lists , which in reality it is probably impossible to win more than two seats in the Region making a total of Ten.

But all the parties need to consider , having what is effectively a strong substitute bench.

During the last Assembly/Senedd there were four such substitutions.

Michelle Brown (Ukip) for Nathan Gill North Wales who had resigned.

Helen Mary Jones (Plaid Cymru) for Simon Thomas Mid and West Wales who had resigned (in disgrace).

Delyth Jewell for Steffan Lewis (Plaid Cymru) South Wales East  who had died 

Laura Jones for Mohammad Asghar (Conservative) South Wales East, who had died.

On top of that Niel McEvoy Plaid Cymru has been expelled by the party and as for the 7 Ukip regional members only Neil Hamilton remains in the Party after a multitude of Waka Jumping from his colleagues  see here.

So the chances of someone who is third on the regional list ending up in the senedd before 2016 election is not completely remote.

 In the South Wales Central probably to the  rage of the "Areshole of the North"  if Leanne Wood decides to put herself forward for the South Wales Central  seat as well as the Rhondda Constituency , two more formidable female candidates Fflur Elin and Helydd Fychan have put their names forward .

It could be all thre win  Leanne (Rhondda) Helydd Fychan (Pontypridd) and Flur Elin (Regional Seat).

f this happens it will be a good night for Plaid  not only in the result but in the quality of their AMs.

Spivs end up in Prison, Cronies end up on Company Boards or the House of Lords.

It seems that a number of Tory politician and party supporters have done well out of the coranavirus  as they are linked with firms that have been awarded contracts to combat it

The Guardian reports  that 

The political communications company behind the Conservative party’s controversial 2019 digital campaign strategy received a £3m government contract to work on Covid-19 messaging without a competitive tender and is negotiating with the Cabinet Office for more work, the Guardian and openDemocracy can reveal.

Topham Guerin, founded in 2016 by two young New Zealanders, Sean Topham and Ben Guerin, specialises in producing images and videos for social media and has worked for a number of rightwing political parties.

It was behind two Tory election campaign stunts that attracted widespread criticism: renaming the official Conservative party Twitter account “factcheckUK” during the leaders’ debate, and setting up a website presented as Labour’s manifesto.

An investigation by the Guardian and openDemocracy found that on 17 March, shortly before the UK went into lockdown, Topham Guerin was contracted by the Cabinet Office to work on the government’s public communications.

The Mirror reports that  

A Tory-linked firm behind a coronavirus test recalled over "contaminated" swabs will keep its Government testing contract, the Mirror has learned.

Ministers are under pressure to explain why Randox Laboratories is being “rewarded for failure” after care homes and members of the public were told to "quarantine and return" as many as 741,000 test kits.

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) this week announced the recall of tests supplied by Randox, which had been sent to care homes and for at-home testing, over concerns swabs included in the kits may not be sterile.

They said the recall is a precautionary measure, the risk to safety is low, and test results from the kits are not affected.

The firm, which has Tory MP and former minister Owen Paterson on the payroll as an advisor, was handed a £133m contract to supply tests to the UK's test and trace programme in May, without any other firm being given the chance to bid for the contract.

There's no suggestion of any wrongdoing in how the contract was awarded.

and The Wasting Mule reports that  

 

A Welsh Conservative MP is being paid £15,000 a year to advise a company producing coronavirus tests for the UK Government.

Vale of Glamorgan MP and former Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns started a role as a senior advisor at the Crumlin based BBI Group.

To earn his £15,000 a year salary, which is in addition to his salary as an MP, Mr Cairns will have to advise the company for just 70 hours a year (less than six hours a month). That is equivalent to just over £214 an hour.

BBI Group is part of UK-RTC consortium, a group of companies and institutions launched to develop new coronavirus antibody tests. In partnership with Avacta Group, they have worked on UK Government contracts to manufacture Covid-19 tests.

Former ministers are not allowed to lobby the UK government for two years after leaving office. During this time they must seek permission from the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments to accept a job.

I imagine the list is so huge it would fill pages 

Of course there may be  nothing illegal in this Cronyism is not a crime  and under capitalism UK companies and indeed foreign ones have more link with the Tory party especially when they are in government

However  ow contracts are awarded is of concern , I wouldn't' trust Alun airns to advise me on how to make a cup of tea. His only selling point is the fact he's aTory MP with links to the heart  of government.

During any war there will always be , Politicians , Profiteers and Spivs who do well out of it  , the difference is that some Profiteers and Spiv  in prison , whilst Politicians end up on the Boards of Companies , and they and thier paymasters can end up in the House of Lords.

We need tighter rules on Student Accommodation planning (2)

 A third block of student flats in Cardiff has applied for a change of use due to the coronavirus though questions should be asked over the types of student accommodation  . being built , which benefit from relaxed planning rules , and the actual future plan in generals

Wales Online report that that 

The owners of the Eclipse tower, on Newport Road Lane in Adamsdown, want to use up to 235 of their rooms as professional serviced apartments.

The development, with a total of 686 rooms, first opened to students in 2017 after receiving planning permission in 2015.

But now its owners say they are struggling to fill the rooms, given the Covid-19 pandemic putting off students from studying at university.

Guests staying in the professional serviced apartments would benefit from a 24-hour concierge, a gym, laundry room, cycle storage and dining rooms. Rooms would be charged on a weekly rate and maximum stays would be limited to 90 days.

Collegiate, who run the Eclipse, must first receive planning permission for the change of use from Cardiff council.

Two other student accommodation developments in Cardiff have also recently applied for a change of use: the Zenith and the Neighbourhood.

There have been concerns raised that Cardiff is becoming dominated with ugly student blocks that do not meet the more proper standards for light and building standards, and do not provide full community funding, when there is not sufficient demand for student flats. Better quality building projects have been scrapped in favour of cheap student blocks

.

I always wondered how the now demolished  "Block" the Hal of residence at Coleg Harlech was ever allowed to be built  in the Snowdonia National Park , given that there are strict rules on householder on the type of roofing they use.

 

Once again i am  loath to quote  former"Welsh" Ukip leader  now a a member of Abolish the Assmebly  Party Gareth Bennett but just as a broken Clock may be right twice a day , a far right populists, should not be ignored for his loathsome views  if he or she raise relevant issues , 

This from July 18th 2018

Diolch, Llywydd. There have been a number of successful planning applications recently for student accommodation in Cardiff. Some people have observed that virtually every major housing block granted planning permission for central Cardiff in the past 18 months has been for student accommodation. At the same time, we have a second so-called student block considering applying for change of use so that it can let its rooms to non-students, due to lack of demand from the student population. We also have a large block in Newport that is no longer being used exclusively for students. If there is a lack of demand for the blocks that have already been built, why are more student blocks being built, I wonder. Is the Welsh Government aware of this issue, and what are you doing to regulate this area? 

Minister Rebecca  Evans replied  

Thank you for the question. I’m certainly aware of the issue, in terms of there being a large number of student accommodations within Cardiff that aren’t being occupied by students. There’s a particular difficulty in terms of changing those accommodations into non-student accommodations, of course, because my understanding is that the regulations surrounding the different types of accommodation are different, so there is an issue there in terms of space, and so on. I know this is an issue that the Minister with responsibility for planning is also very much alive to. But my advice to local authorities, certainly, would be to look very closely at their local housing needs analysis, and to be organising their planning and decision making around planning in accordance with those local housing needs.

Bennett carried on after the Ministers reply..

...Thanks for that response. I’m glad you are aware of the issue. I think there may be a need for perhaps closer involvement at Welsh Government level in this area, because the local authorities—certainly in Cardiff and Newport—may not be doing enough about it. I think that we may be heading for over-supply of student accommodation. Certainly we know that the expansion of higher education cannot go on forever; there will not be an endless supply of more student members in Cardiff, Newport, or probably anywhere else in Wales. I think what we may have here is something of a scam. It may be that the universities are deliberately creating an over-supply of flats for the student market, so that they can change their use by the back door, and use them subsequently to let out commercially. We know that there are less stringent rules applied to student flats than to commercial developments, for instance, which you alluded to in your answer. Are you aware that the universities could be duping the local councils into allowing these developments of student blocks, which the university chiefs know full well may be used subsequently for commercial letting?

Benett does not seem to have perused the issue and it sems very few Cardiff Politicians  have raised the issue .

Whilst it could be seen as a means of aiding the housing crisis in Cardiff , we need an investigation  into , whether there is too much Student Accommodation in Cardiff and whether it is  used to get around strict planning rules.