A Plaid by any other name

The name of the Irish Political Party Fianna Fáil  is commonly directly  translated into "Soldiers of Destiny" but its official name is "The Republican Party". But I suspect nowhere in Ireland says they are a member of or a supporter of The Republican party.notwithstanding the huge defeat it had in last years election.

Which brings me to the news that commission set up by Plaid Cymru in the face of two poor election results to recommend that Plaid  should consider changing its name to the Welsh National Party.

If you didn't know and I wouldn't blame if you did.  Plaid's English name is currently the "Party of Wales "( a more direct translation). Its been suggested that the name was adopted In order that  Welsh Labour couldn't  Labour it self Welsh Labour - The party of Wales.

Since then has anyone really noticed the Plaid- Party of Wales name on party leaflets?, Hss any member canvassing said . Hello I'm calling on behalf of the Party of Wales? Has any senior Party member used it on a Pol tics pro gramme?Has any journalist or member of the public

Indeed nearly everyone simply refers to the Party as "Plaid Cymru "or simperly  "Plaid" or if they wish to be negative "Welsh Nats" or  even more derogatory " Nats".

Would a name change make any difference I doubt it and I suspect hardly any member will use it . Indeed it will be  largely only the Blaid's opponents who will.

Quite frankly if Plaid wants to link more with English speakers and avoid being seen as a Welsh speaking party it should  concentrate it efforts more in widening  it membership and campaigning more in the South Wales Valleys.Including a  staffed valleys office

So why has the commission come out with the name change proposal which they must know most members will not use ?  Could it be that the Party realised that this would be the major issue taken up with the report? And therefore the main points will be left to the membership and the four leadership contenders to digest rather than the media?

Gareth Hughes on his blog has given us most of the real recommendation  of the commission and I reproduce them below.

• The establishment of a National Academy to revolutionise campaigning and organisation, as well as nurturing the community champions and national leaders of the future.
•  A radical modernisation of the party’s campaigning methods to create a permanently campaigning party equipped with the tools that are necessary for a modern 21st century party.
• The establishment of a more effective mechanism for policy formulation. Ensuring that the skills of members, supporters and external experts are utilised in order to ensure better policy development.
• An acceptance that the Party needs greater clarity over its aims in order to be able to present a coherent and united message to the people of Wales.
• Fundamental changes to the Party’s structures in order to ensure clearer leadership and greater accountability from all Plaid representatives

All of which seem to be the sort of thing any review of any structure would come up with.

Quite frankly the future of Plaid for the next decade will .not be based on a inward revue but on who it elects as its leadership in March and who can galvanize the Party with a vision of a Independent Wales that will unite all of its people. The question is will she  be up to the task

Lay on! Lay on! Lay on! They fail!

I some times wonder whether London Journalists are Lazy or ignorant  rather than simply just opposed to Scottish Independence.

A recent issue of the Express stated that.

The First Minister vowed to press ahead with his own poll to break up Britain despite being warned that the SNP’s proposals would be illegal.

Critics accused Mr Salmond of “panic” after the UK Government said a referendum would be unconstitutional without its authority.

The fact is a little research would point to Autumn 2014 as  always being the most probable date for the Independence referendum,.simply because June of that year will see the 700 anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn and whether you think that it would be cynical or not . The fact is that is that the comparison of an arrogant English Ruler crossing the Border to face a largely peasant army will be made during that year by commentators and you can bet Salmond will be compared to tRobert theBruce to Camerons (Edward 11)

Other comparison of Edward attempting to legitmise is invasion by including disgruntled Scots like the gormer Guardian of Scotland Ingram de Umfraville,( Labour former First Ministers?) will be made.

But Robert had prepared his troops well. They had spent the winter drilling and he had chosen the ideal spot well.

One of the sad fact of the Battle is the presence of Welsh Archers on the English side. Tough hopefully the Welsh will be behind the tanks of the Scottish this time.

I,m not saying that this anniversary will be a major influence in the minds of Scottish voters but it will be an additional factor.

But who lead the invading army this time against Salmond's. Robert the Bruce

In theory it should be current Scottish Secretary Michael Moore but his Liberal Democrats are scarcely more popular in Scotland than the Tories and in recent weeks he has loked little more than Camerons puppet over the Independance issue. and has already made conflicting statements over whether the Scottish Government can legally call  a referendum 

There has been some talk that the Unionist army should be senior scottish politician, and former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling has been recently spoken of, as it is claimed (at least by London commentators)  he is well respected in Scotland, but perhaps this is  largely because of sympathy from Scottish noters after his mauling (and often semi- racist) from the London media.

And as events have shown Cameron will be unable  to stay out of the issue even though it will not go down well with Scottish Voters . His latest intervention has seen nearly  800 people joining the SNPi n the last few days. Indeed its probably why Labour did comparently well in the 2010 Westminster Election.

Camerons other recent boob has been his attempt to prevent a option of devo-max in the Scottish independence referendum. as  Syniadau.so excewntly points out His instance of the  exclusion of a Devo-Max option will make it more likely for voters tvote for com plete Independence.

I still think it will be hard for the SNP to win an Independence referendum but every time the likes of Cameron seek to interfere makes be more confident that 2014 will see Scotland if not gaining complete Independence will have made a giant stride towards it.

P.S. If you are wondering ? The Title refers to the cry of the Scots as the Battle turned in thier favour.

Carwyn the Federalist?

It seems Wales' First Minister Carwyn Jones has looked into Wales future after a a successful "Yes for Independence"  in a Scottish referendum and is worried that  English MP will  dominate Parliament if Scotland breaks away from the UK.

He said the House of Commons would need to be balanced by a new upper house with equal representation from England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Mr Jones said the system could be based on the Senate in the United States.

"You would have for example, a Parliament in London with about 550 MPs, 510 of whom would be from England. Well that's no good to us at all."

"There would need to be a fundamental rethink of the nature of the relationship between the three nations left within the UK in order to make sure that, what was then the UK, was a stable body where people felt that they had full representation."

But it seems 510 MPs from England and  about 80 from Wales,Scotland and Northern Ireland is acceptable.

Surely a federal solution under Carwyn's criteria, would apply to the current  position of the Nations of the UK as well as one in which Scotland had left?

Carwyn doesn't call for a English parliament but how could a federal structure work with the House of Commons being (as it is almost now) also a an English parliament ?

But what of Carwyn's second chamber? Does he propose an equal number of Senators from Wales,England and Northern Ireland say 150 from each or one in which there are say 200 English senators and 100 from the other two?

I can't see this being acceptable to English MPs or English voters who would never see English dominance diminished  in even one of the Legislatures. Indeed I suspect that they would much prefer the complete break up of the UK rather than accept a Federal Solution (including one which Scotland was still part).

If I thought it would work, if the nations of the UK could exist in a Federal structure of equals then I would seriously consider it but the English Question is to complex .

Regional Government in England would not solve the problem. Wales is not a Region  and if there was a Federal structure  it ant of the UK legislatures should not be treated as a region like the South East of England.

Such a structure may work in England as an Independent country and I wish them well if they decide to do so. Though I would hope Cornwall's unique position would be taken into account and or perhaps they could join us eventually as Independent member of the European Union.If Luxembourg can be so can Cornwall).

In the meantime it is good to see the First Minister looking ahead but if he can't accept that Welsh Mps whether there are 40 or 30 are dominated in the Westminster Parliament  at present and realise that Wales should have Legastive powers equal to Scotland even under the present Union how can he claim that a future UK without Scotlant will be detrimental to Wales?

New Welsh Constituencies a rough assestment.

To be fair  considering the remit of reducing the number of Welsh Constituencies 40 to 30 from the Boundaries commission have seemed to have made a decent fist of it and compared with a previous attempt, it at least seems to have kept communities together . Though in some cases the Commissioners have made a huge error such as including the Mountain Ash and Aberaman in the Rhondda (a possible boost for Plaid however ?) and anyone who has tried to cross the Mountain road which connects the two in Winter will know.It one of the first to close  when theres even light snow and in the past has ben closed for long periods due to landslides. Perhaps the creation of the new consituency may led to improvements though I doubt it.

From the Political Parties point of View  it seems Plaid will be quite happy with the new Gwynedd and Caerfyrddin seats and would not be worried about loosing they main contender status in Menai ac Ynys Mon and Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire. Llanelli will be hard work however and the new Caerphilly and Cardiff North seat  means the longed for valleys breakthrough  seems further away.

For the Tories they lok to be losing  one of their North Wales Seats with the the ridiculously named North Wales Coast (Cant see that name lasting) and almost certainly one of the Pembrokeshire ones . Off the  3 Cardiff seat's  that will remain it is probable be dependent on the General UK political trends but for the moment they are down one.
For the Libdems  it will take some nuber crunching to work out if they are still viable in the new Cardiff Central and Penarth seat . The demise of Montgomery means they are unlikely to win this area back . leaving only the South Powys seat which they will have to fight it out with the to Tories
Labour will be the biggest losers , they appear to be seeing about some  of their valleys strong holds disappearing altogether including Islwyn  merged into the Newport Sirhowy Valey seat and the creation of the Heads of the Valleys (another poor name) from remnants of the Merthyr and Cynon Valley.and the loss of the one seat in North Wales.

So a rough calculation  if there was general election tomorrow could see the number of seats in Wales allocated as

Plaid 2/4 Current 3
Lib Dems 1/2 Current 3
Cons 5/6-Current 8
Lab 20/24- current 26

Alun Michael seeks to be Police and Crime Commissioner for South Wales.

It seems that Cardiff South and Penarth MP Alun Michael has announced he will seek nomination as Labour’s candidate for the new role of Police and Crime Commissioner for South Wales.

However it appears that  if he was successfully nominated he would have to resign his seat  forceing a Byelection before standing so he would not have a fall back position  as he did in 1999 when he was the Labour establishment choice to lead the party in the Welsh assembly.

He was elected for the Top Up Seat of Mid and West Wales (thanks in part to Plaid winning LlanelI) but stayed on as member for Cardiff South and Penarth only to find that with only 28 seats Labour did not have an overall majority and when eight month old National Assembly for Wales  when faced with the likely success of a vote of no confidence against him.Which Plaid engineered and in the light of the controversial leadership election twelve months earlier these events were widely perceived as a snub to the Prime Minister himself who had championed Michael over his challenger he  resigned from the Assembly and went back to the Commons

The role of these Police and Crime Commissioner has been examined in depth by Click on Wales here but although the new commissioner will have significant powers over budgets and holding the Chief Constable to account they will not be able to direct where resources such as police officers should be deployed.

So anyone running a US style "Clean up Crime" campaign will be seriously misleading the electorate..

Nevertheless its a worrying factor of the Politicisation of the police  in the UK and the entry of Alun Michael into these elections emphases.this.

To be fair his press statement  does say.

“In a series of difficult and challenging roles I have always looked for new and better ways of doing things, and as the police face massive cuts – which in my view come too deep and too fast – it is more important than ever before to ensure that police work is clearly focused, and that the downward trend in crime which has been achieved in the South Wales Police area is maintained in the future.

“Violence has been cut more in Cardiff than in equivalent cities in England because a science-led partnership approach has been adopted, and knowing the facts I feel safe in the city centre – but as media coverage showed last year, rowdy and unruly behaviour makes people feel unsafe. So we need to go beyond cutting crime to build public confidence and change relationships.”

So he begins his campaign on a largely progressive  not; But as the election approaches promoted by a Tabloid media calling for voters to support "Hang and Flog" them candidates. It is likely the majority of those seeking the position will move to far more punitive rhetoric and considering the last Labour  governments kneejerk reaction to such calls under Home Secretaries (all of whom were far from liberal) and who Alun Michael worked under. I epect him to make more and more right wing law and order statements.

The chances of aliberal progressive candidate being endorsed beyond the Independent and Guardian  seems remote .

The real danger for Alun Michael however is that the public may simply not vote on political lines and seek a commisioner who is Independent of a political party. If Alun was to lose he would have nowhere to go and he may have made his last gamble.


.

How to be a Welsh Republican.

It is interesting that much has been made of Leanne Woods Republicanism though t least Simon Thomas has expressed such views in the past .

Leanne's case however is her habit of s boycotting the  ceremonial opening of the  Assembly, anr therfore has been  accused of snubbing the Queen. and questions have been asked if giving the circumstances of her becoming first Minister in a Plaid Assembly Government  or  a Minister in a coalition government would she could she make this stance.

Franlkly its up to her. Bit it does raise a issue . In a recent Blog Miserable Old Fart commented that.

"Republicanism is a British obsession. An independent Wales will have no royal family! Republicanism is not a Welsh Nationalist issue!"

 I'm  sorry  Alwyn  I can't agree unless an Independent Wales is an avowedly Republic  then there is no rerason why it woulld not be on the same level as Canada, Australia , amd New Zealand  with the King or Queen of England as head of State represented by a governor general appointed  on the advice of a Welsh Prine Minister.

There is nothing I beleive in Plaid's Constitution that rules this out and it seems that a Independent Scotland would openly accept the reigning English Monarch as head of State.

But actually the current problem is not a future Wales but of Democracy.

Already Leanne has virtually no choice in order to take her seat. the Oath being...

I... swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me Go

Or she may affirm  a solemn affirmation under the terms of the Oaths Act 1978:

I... do solemnly, sincerely and truly declare and affirm that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law.

I would have no problem to my mind  swearing an Oath accepting Elisabeth Windsor as Head of State  for the period of the Assembly that is sitting .Which is different than recognising her as such.

But I could not accept being bound to accepting it in perpetuity and the idea that such an Oath would bind me to her successors is an affront  to Democracy .

So whats my advice to Leanne if she was placed in a position of being First Minister  and meeting the English Monarch.

I would accept the role as Head of State in the current unwritten constitution and therefore  welcome her to the Assembly  in the same way a Australian Prime Minister who proposed his or her Nation should  become a republic would, whilst making it clear that I was aiming to remove her from that position on the implementation of an Independent Wales.

But as first Minister I would also insure that the Oath of alligence is changed that  it read  something on the lines of ...one proposed by Tony Benn fir the House of Commons in 1197

   I... swear by Almighty God  that I will, to the best of my ability, discharge the responsibilities required of me by virtue of my membership of the Welsh Assembly s and faithfully serve those whom I represent here.

Or

I ...do solemnly Declare and Affirm that I will, to the best of my ability, discharge the responsibilities required of me by virtue of my membership of the Welsh Assembly s and faithfully serve those whom I represent here.

Simple and Democratic and democracy should always be a Welsh Obsession.

National Left looks into his Crystal Ball

Here are my predictions for 2012

Labour
The Party can expect to make major gains next tear wining control of Torfaen, Blaneau Gwent, Newport Brigend, Merthyr Tydfil and Caerphilly.Indeed failure do so might prove a disappointed.This could be matched by becoming  the largest party in Cardiff and Swansea even having small majorities in one of these.In the Welsh assembly, they will continue to carry on without an overall majority at least until after the May election when they may seek to bring the Libdems into coalition.

They will however continue a Laissez-faire policy making only small policy initiatives whilst blaming Central government.,

Any discontent amongst Labour AM's  will only appear if and when the Libdems joined them. When those realising a Ministeral post will not be coming  to them will start to speak out. Some will take a call for more devolution even Parity with Scotland  others will rake up a fundamentalist Unionist stance 

Conservatives.

It will be steady as it goes for the Conservatives . In May they may even increase their total  number of seats at the expense of the LibDems. But may lose overall control of Monmouth and even more likely Vale of Glamorgan.

Cheryl Gillian will lose her cabinet post as secretary of State for Wales to Clwyd West MP  David Jones or the post will be abolished.

The Conservatives in the Assembly  will take up a more Devo-sceptic position which whilst not provoking a split lead to the likes of David Melding from his safe  position as  Deputy Presiding Office increasingly distancing himself from the polices of his leader.

Liberal Democrats

Will have a very hard time in May will lose over 50 seats and and will be lucky to not to lose 70.

They will enter negotiations on forming a coalition with Labour after May realising that it the only way they can maintain a profile in Welsh politics.

Peter Black will make at least one ridiculous statement a week on his blog and will be shirty with those who point out his cant claiming that the  are being "repetitive or off subject".

Plaid Cymru.

The Party with the most interesting and challenging year a head of them.

Elin Jones will win the leadership contest . Though Leanne Wood will make a strong challenge (and might just win it).

Depending on how much the contest invigorates the Blaid . May will see the part lossing out to Labour in the East but gaining a comfortable Majority on Gwynedd. possibly gaining Ceredigion  and whilst it may lose some seats to Labour in Carmarthen this will be of-set  by gains from Independents.


Sport


The Welsh Rugby team will  will win the 6 nations in 2012 but alas no Grand Slam

Swansea will survive their first season in the premiership . Cardiff will make the champions league play off and join them.
The GB football (Under 23's)  in the Olympics will be an embarrassment and will be quickly forgotten and never proposed again.
The overall medals won by British athletes will exceed Beijing but the number of Golds will be less.
Glamorgan will have an average Cricket season.


Royality



The Jubilee will reach a level of sycophancy of a North Korean state funeral. Republicans will be ignored and marginalised .

There will be no announcement of a pregnancy as nothing will be allowed to divert attention from the Queen this year.