National Left

Welsh Party Leaders fail in identity test
If the electorate were asked to take an exam on current affairs before they were allowed to vote then the result could be disturbing.

Take the recent Welsh leaders poll conducted by Professor Roger Awan-Scully.

He writes.

A first thing to note is who we asked this question about in the latest poll. Past practice has normally been to ask about the main UK and Welsh party leaders. For November’s poll, our list was a little longer. In addition to the leaders of the main GB-wide parties (Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and Vince Cable), we also asked about the current UKIP leader, Gerard Batten. We then added various Welsh politicians. For Labour, we asked about the current party leader Carwyn Jones, and the three candidates to succeed him: Mark Drakeford, Vaughan Gething and Eluned Morgan. For Plaid Cymru we included their new leader, Adam Price, and his predecessor Leanne Wood. For the Welsh Conservatives, we again asked about the new leader and his predecessor: Paul Davies and Andrew RT Davies. For UKIP in Wales we similarly enquired about Gareth Bennett and Neil Hamilton. And finally we also included the Welsh Lib-Dem leader Jane Dodds.
What, then, did we find? A first set of findings concerns the visibility of leaders. As I have commented on at various times in the past, while some respondents can offer a Don’t Know because they are genuinely undecided, in the aggregate the proportion of respondents offering this answer for any leader appears a good measure of that individual’s visibility (or rather anonymity) with the public. So how many respondents chose Don’t Know for each of the leaders (or ex-leaders, or putative leaders) that we asked about in the most recent poll? Here are the figures:

Leader                               % Don’t Know

Theresa May                      7

Jeremy Corbyn                  9

Vince Cable                       30

Gerard Batten                   74

Carwyn Jones                    24

Mark Drakeford                 59

Vaughan Gething             56

Eluned Morgan                 62

Adam Price                        72

Leanne Wood                    30

Paul Davies                        72

Andrew RT Davies            46

Gareth Bennett                 75

Neil Hamilton                   31

Jane Dodds                       74

The Professor continues... 

Most of these results should not surprise us. The main UK party leaders have consistently had the highest levels of public visibility in Wales in all polling. It is striking how far the new Plaid and Welsh Conservative leaders lag behind their predecessors: the party leadership contests clearly did not impact much on the consciousness of the Welsh public. It will presumably take Paul Davies and Adam Price some time to become known to the majority of Welsh voters.

 Still it is shocking that 24% may not know who our Third Rate Minister Carwyn Jones and at 7% it appears that there are fully competent people in wards throughout Wales who are being asked by a Doctor who is the Prime Minister seven  out of a hundred being unable to answer seem to be raising cause for concern.

I suppose you could be suspicious that some of those polled might be partisan and deliberately feign ignorance of other party leaders, but it is probably a small number.

The Professor then asks 

What about those who did have a view about each leader? How did they rate in terms of popularity? Here are average ratings out of ten for each of the politicians we asked about:
 
Leader                              Average /10
Theresa May                     3.9
Jeremy Corbyn                 3.9
Vince Cable                      3.9
Gerard Batten                  3.1
Carwyn Jones                   4.5
Mark Drakeford                4.0
Vaughan Gething             4.4
Eluned Morgan                 4.5
Adam Price                       4.3
Leanne Wood                   4.4
Paul Davies                       3.7
Andrew RT Davies            3.8
Gareth Bennett                 3.0
Neil Hamilton                   2.2
Jane Dodds                       3.8

He concludes.. 

...No-one averaged even five out of ten – but then it is hardly news that politicians in general are, to pick a topical image, about as popular as a neighbour’s gaudy Christmas laser lights.A first notable feature of these results is that all the main UK party leaders do rather poorly. This represents a notable fall since last year by Jeremy Corbyn: after his popularity rating surged during the general election, it has now edged downwards consistently. His rating has fallen by a full point on the 0-10 scale since June 2017.It is also notable that, amongst those with a view on the potential First Ministers of Wales, that Mark Drakeford is the least popular of the Labour candidates. This, as I discussed here, has been a consistent finding across three polls and two different question formats; while the Welsh Labour front-runner has convinced many of his colleagues to back him, he has yet to win over much of the Welsh public.

Though it seems the gap between former Plaid  leader Leanne Wood is narrow and , we can wonder whether popularity is in fact less important than recognition .

Otherwise it would be a battle between the Plaid Leader and and Labour's when it came to voting intentions.

But once again  we are faces with evidence that the Welsh electorate need to be better informed but also engaged about who they are voting for.

I remember in a Aber lecture John Bwlchllan as the late Proffessor John Davies commenting how elections being reported in the Western Mail (then a Tory paper) only mentioned that party candidate and his opponent would only reach the front page after the election when they won

So I wonder if we could have polled  people a hundred years ago wheter without the media we have now what the difference would be.

With a lack of a Welsh media it is only Wonks like myself (and experts like  Professor Awan-Scully who  keep up and often I have to go looking for it.

So I wonder if we could have polled  people a hundred years ago whether without the media we have now what the difference would be.

I remember in a Aber lecture John Bwlchllan as the late Professor John Davies commenting how elections being reported in the Western Mail (then a Tory paper) only mentioned that party candidate and his opponent would only reach the front page after the election, when they won

Perhaps there is no really any better way than getting your members out knocking doors on a regular basis.