With Plaid Cymru leadership challenger Rhun ap Iorwerth ending he wanting to move the party from the left to the centre politically, party members may well be wondering just why this a contest at all.
Mr ap Iorwerth told BBC Wales' Newyddion9 programme he was against "being narrow in another part of the political spectrum".
Plaid leader Leanne Wood has called the Welsh political centre ground "crowded" and "not an attractive place to be".
Mr ap Iorwerth also said he did not want a coalition with Labour or the Conservatives.
A significant result of Paul Davies’ as leader of the Coservative Group in the Assembly election could be his willingness to offer a vote to party members over whether they would be willing to form a coalition with Plaid Cymru, who also are approaching a leadership election in the coming weeks.
It has been reportd that , Rhun ap Iorwerth had expressed a willingness to consider this should he be elected.
If the Welsh Conservative members decide they would be happy for this to happen, perhaps it could lead to concerns for Labour in the 2021 elections and a huge change for the Assembly in Wales, which is exactly what these leadership elections aimed to do.
Though it may increase Conservative votes it could be disastrous for Plaid with Labour making it a plank of their campaign.
Indeed both Labour and the Tories could be claiming a Plaid-Tory coalition is on the cards even when the former absolutely deny that there is one!
Ms Wood has said it is "quite possible" either Mr ap Iorwerth , or her other challenger, Adam Price, would be willing to make a deal with the Conservatives after the 2021 election.
That is indeed the impression that I had , but it with Mr Price saying the idea of a coalition involving Plaid Cymru should be "taken off the table" and the party should focus on building a positive message.
At the moment the prospect pf a Plaid government majority or minority look unlikely and despite the obvious talents and claims of all three contenders, I do not see that a change of leadership would make a major change in the polls.
Indeed when Plaid had its highly successful result in 1997 and the obvious charisma of the then leader Dafydd Wiggly , it was divisions within Labour that had the most impact.
When Harold Macmillan became Britain's prime minister, he was asked what would determine his government's course. He replied with Edwardian languor: "Events, dear boy, events."
An event--the 1956 Suez debacle--had catapulted him into 10 Downing Street. An event--the sex-and-spies Profumo scandal--would grease the skids under him in 1963.
Tony Blair has been credited with the 1997 Labour landslide but it was largely due to a Tory party running out of ideas and exposure of sleaze, with even the right-wing press wanting a change of government that brought John Major's government down
Remember Paddy Ashton's Liberal Democrats made a net gain of 28 seats in that election all of them Tory.
Tony Blair has been credited with the 1997 Labour landslide but it was largely due to a Tory party running out of ideas and exposure of sleaze, with even the right-wing press wanting a change of government that brought John Major's government down
Remember Paddy Ashton's Liberal Democrats made a net gain of 28 seats in that election all of them Tory.
The future of Plaid Cymru leaders may well depend on how He or She respond to the perceived cataclysm of a Post-Brexit Uk.
When Plaid members vote they may well consider this.
1 comment:
I was pleased to hear Rhun say that yesterday glyn, and as you point out Adam ruled coalitions 'off the table' on tuesday while leanne has been emphatic throughout on no deals with the tories. So in a sense it is reasonable to wonder why this leadership contest is taking place at all, given the main reason for some in plaid wanting to change leader is because of leanne's strong opposition to working with the tories. And interestingly the question didnt even come up at the hustings i attended and hasnt featured at a few other hustings either im told.
Personally speaking i find it impossible to understand how anyone in plaid cymru could seriously entertain working with a party which fought the creation of the senedd tooth and nail, which recently used the eu withdrawal bill to steal powers off wales, a party who's secretary of stated was responsible for the seven bridge renaming scandal and a party who's reason for existing is to preserve the very 'union' plaid wants to leave. You could also could also chuck in their economic policies which destroyed many welsh communities in the 1980s and the last decade of austerity they have enforced resulting in thousands of children in wales going hungry during the summer.
So however anyone cares to look at it there is no credible or acceptable rationale for anyone in plaid cymru to want to get into bed with a party like that. And if this election did result in a change of leader and did result in plaid making a deal with the tories plaid would be crucified at the polls - and rightly so.
Im sure welsh labour must be rubbing their hands at all this talk and speculation about plaid being willing to work with the tories in the senedd - it's the kind of propaganda and ammunition against plaid they couldnt buy. And those in plaid who were apparently open to a coalition involving the tories in the senedd have to accept the blame for this highly damaging speculation.
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