Monday, 20 August 2018

Brexit: Heads the Tories win, Tails everybody else looses .

I find myself in agreement with politicabetting in that I’m very sceptical about hypothetical polling and it really is difficult to comment on the survey without seeing the actual polling details particularly the wording of the questions.

According to the Guardian website.
A pro-EU Labour peer and former cabinet minister has said the party is “finished” if it contests another election promising to back Brexit, as a new poll suggested the party’s support depends heavily on remain voters who could switch their allegiance to the Lib Dems.Andrew Adonis, a former transport minister and a vocal critic on Britain’s departure from the EU, said the party could not be seen as an “accomplice to Brexit” should a snap election take place before March 2019.
“A YouGov poll of more than 4,900 people, released to the Guardian on Sunday, put the Conservatives ahead of Labour by four points in a snap election should the latter adopt an anti-Brexit position, and ahead by nine points if Labour were to pledge to follow through with leaving the EU.The Lib Dems would gain 10 points from Labour backing Brexit, lifting them to two points behind Labour.“If Labour becomes an accomplice to Brexit, it is finished,” Lord Adonis said. “If people want Brexit, they will vote for the party that really believes in it, not the one that is being led to support it against its most profound convictions and misgivings.”The poll was conducted for the anti-Brexit group Best for Britain and the anti-racism group Hope not Hate..”
 It would be interesting to see the voting intentions for the full political spectram including Plaid, SNP and Greens and indeed Ukip before we could even begin to comment.

 The chief executive of Best for Britain, Eloise Todd, said:

 “These figures show that Labour would make real gains in the country from a clear anti-Brexit position. With Labour voters and national public opinion shifting against Brexit, it’s time for the opposition to give people what they want: a clear choice on Brexit between leaving and staying and reforming the EU, not a fudged deal that works for Westminster elites and no one else.”

I may agrre with the two  Brexit groups  Best for Britain (Well not the Britain part)  and the anti-racism group Hope not Hate but  even if you were to completely accept the poll as real voting intentions it stil puts   the Conservatives ahead of Labour by four points in a snap election should the latter adopt an anti-Brexit position.

What we need is seat predictions, would Anti- Brexit MPs from non Conservative parties have a majority even if the Tories are the largest party?

Jeremy Corbyn has said his party would push for a general election rather than a referendum on the deal should Theresa May fail to get her proposed agreement with the EU through parliament.
Party strategists have calculated that Labour retains the vast majority of remain supporters’ votes and that its electoral prospects are reliant on winning back or retaining the support of working-class leave voters.
I suspect this true despite the poll and the worrying point is that Pro-Bexit Labour members like Corbyn , would gamble that they can still get Brexit and a Labour  government.

Maybe  if i see greater details of the Yougov poll it does not seem to be on their website, but It seems to me that even if those of us who support Remain , should not take it to suggest we can at the moment  stop Brexit via a General Election whatever Labour's stance and I still have doubts about a people vote.
Indeed it looks like Heads the Tories win, Tails everybody else looses .
They seem intent on a suicidal no-deal Brexit  and that it  even if it completely bankrupted the UK it could allow them to pursue their right wing agenda,  buoyed up with a British English nationalism  based on xenophobia (blaming thrEU) which will keep them in power for decades,

1 comment:

Gav said...

This sample of 1 has lived in a marginal Labour / Conservative seat for many years, and has consistently voted Labour as the better of, practically, 2 options. I was moderately happy when Mr Corbyn became leader, but since then I've become totally p*ssed of by the lack of effective opposition particularly over Brexit. Plaid Cymru it is then.