Thursday 31 May 2018

A second public vote must offer more than Leave or Remain


BBC Wales tell us that 
More than 30 Welsh politicians are calling for a second public vote on the final Brexit deal.
Actually its 31 so why not say so

They go on to say ..
 
A group of mainly Labour MPs, AMs and council leaders say the final deal will be "too big" to be left to a vote in the UK Parliament.
The UK government is refusing to hold a second referendum.
Labour MP Stephen Kinnock did not back the letter, saying that arguing to reverse Brexit would forfeit his right to have a voice in shaping it.
The letter puts further pressure on Labour's UK leadership to shift Brexit policy...
An open letter, co-ordinated by anti-Brexit campaign group Wales For Europe and signed by 31 senior Welsh politicians, urges "everyone in Wales of goodwill, from all parties and none, to stand with us in calling on our MPs to pledge their support for a people's vote on the final Brexit deal."....

...The letter said:

"Will it be the right deal for the people of Wales and the rest of the UK? Will it secure a good future for our young people and allow them to thrive? Will it help protect and grow the number of well-paid, highly-skilled, jobs that Wales needs?"
It is signed by eight council leaders, two of Wales' four MEPs, and 12 of the 40 Welsh MPs, including Owen Smith who was fired as shadow Northern Ireland secretary by Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn for calling for another EU referendum against party policy.
Welsh Labour MPs Anna McMorrin and Tonia Antoniazzi have signed the letter despite being shadow parliamentary private secretaries who are expected to follow the party's line.

Nine AMs have also put their name to the letter, including Plaid Cymru Leader Leanne Wood and the Welsh Government's Local Government Secretary Alun Davies.
Mr Davies accused the UK government of being in chaos and said he had no trust in its "ability to bring back a deal that will meet the needs of the people of Wales".He said.
"That means the people of Wales have to have the opportunity to vote on what the UK government does bring back", he said.

First Minister Carwyn Jones has consistently said that he does not want to re-run the referendum campaign and that Wales and the UK should respect the will of the public vote.
Asked to clarify the Welsh Government's position on a second vote, a spokeswoman said: "The First Minister's priority remains securing the best deal possible for the people of Wales and the UK."
The Labour MP for Aberavon, Stephen Kinnock, was asked to sign up to the letter but refused.
Mr Kinnock added:

"I've been campaigning for an EEA-based Brexit solidly for over 18 months. If I were to now start supporting a campaign that's designed to reverse Brexit before 29 March then the credibility of my EEA arguments would be fatally undermined.
"By arguing to reverse Brexit I would effectively be forfeiting my right to have a voice in shaping it."



In a recent lecture for the campaign group 'Wales For Europe', the Welsh Government's lead on Brexit Mark Drakeford said a referendum "is only one way in which the acceptability or otherwise of such a final deal could be tested".
But he added that
"now is not the moment to be over-definitive about the nature of the question that we would pose at such a point nor the way in which that question would be resolved".
 Meanwhile  Wale Online reports that
Labour will reap electoral rewards in Wales if the party moves to oppose Brexit, a leading pro-EU group has claimed as it publishes its latest research.
Best for Britain says its analysis shows that in every constituency held by a Welsh Labour MP a majority of the people who voted for them also backed Remain.
It claims that 437,606 people who voted Labour in 2017 backed Remain in the Brexit referendum, with just 215,497 supporting Leave.
In contrast, it says that only 114,693 people who backed the Conservatives last year wanted the UK to stay in the EU, with 382,814 voting for Brexit.

How many Welsh voters for each party backed Remain?

01020304050607080%JS chart by amCharts
Labour: 56.7Conservatives: 21.7Lib Dem: 75.2Plaid Cymru: 55.9Green: 59.8

 I would like more details on how this survey was carried  out how many voters were involved in the survey  and was it a UK one with only a few hundred  taking part?

Anything less than a thousand is statistically meaningless

Best for Britain

Eloise Todd, the chief executive of Best for Britain, said:

 “These are the results of a massive research project that Best for Britain has undertaken. Our data shows that every single Labour MP in Wales has more Remain voters than Leave voters.
Though as i noted how many were surveyed in Wales and more importantly how many Ukip voters who previously voted for any of the above parties have now     switched allegiance due to that parties demise.?


Ia still sceptical that a second vote would halt Brexit  and even if it did would Europe hen say OK we carry on as before  or insist the UK drop its opt outs.

Clearly the Tories have made a dog's breakfast over the negotiations and Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn's clear support for Brexit has undermined even any parliamentary  opposition to the way it is being conducted,let alone opposing the whole idea.

Unfortunately the second vote call from Labour seems more like an attempted coup against their leader.

If there is a second vote it must be based on a practical alternative not just scrap two years of negotiations  and  go back to where we were.

Unfortunately I doubt whether the UK public even those who backed  Remain two years ago or have shifted their opinions would do so unless it offered something new.

1 comment:

Leigh Richards said...

Worth noting that a survey of over 2,000 people in wales last month showed a majority of people in wales now favour remaining in the EU https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/majority-people-wales-think-would-14562856

Also this uk wide poll tracker shows that majority support for remaining in the eu emerged almost as soon as the vote two years was concluded http://no2brexit.com/polls.htm

Regarding what the question will say it would be enough to offer a remain option, as if people voted to remain it would mean we stay as we are. Which means staying in the single market and the customs union - vital to the welsh economy - and eu workers in the uk wouldnt be fearful for their futures.

Also should be stressed its not just labour politicians in wales who have signed the open letter, plaid's leanne wood and welsh lib dem kirsty williams have also signed the letter.