Cowdenbeat Labour win on Bread and Butter Issues?

How much we can take from the Cowdenbeath  byelection for the Sottish parliament  on the result of the forthcoming  Independence Election is open to question.

Election results

Cowdenbeath by-election, 2014
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Alex Rowley	11,192	55.78	+9.28
	SNP	Natalie McGarry	5,704	28.43	-13.17
	Conservative	Dave Dempsey	1,893	9.44	+2.44
	UKIP	Denise Baykal	610	3.04	N/A
	Liberal Democrats	Jade Holden	425	2.12	-1.78
	The Victims Final Right	Stuart Graham	187	0.93	N/A
	SDA	James Trolland	51	0.25	N/A
Majority			5,488	27.35	+22.45
Turnout			20,062	38.41	-8.49

2011: Cowdenbeath
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Helen Eadie	11,926	46.5	+3.4
	SNP	Ian Chisholm	10,679	41.6	+13.1
	Conservative	Belinda Don	1,792	7.0	−7.2
	Liberal Democrats	Keith Legg	997	3.9	−10.3
	Land Party	Mick Heenan	276	1.1	n/a
Majority			1,247	4.9
Turnout			25,670	46.9
	Labour hold		Swing	−4.8%

Clearly Labour were the winners but even they seem to think that it was other factors which were of importance,

“This is about a bigger vision for Scotland, a bigger vision than simply independence.
“It’s about full employment for every young person to get the opportunities that they deserve from their lifetime.
“It’s about elderly people living in Fife with dignity, and making sure when they need services those services are available.
“I will spend every day working hard to ensure that we do that.”

Picking up on the issue of the bedroom tax, which Labour seem to have successfully placed on the SNP shoulders. and which they seem to have the support of Tory papers like the Scotsman

“Finally, the message has got to go out in the Scottish Parliament right now that we can mitigate the bedroom tax.
“We can give people jobs, we can give people opportunities, we can do that with a strong, devolved Scottish Parliament working within the UK.

 It seems that Labour have managed to use The Bedroom Tax against the SNP government in Edinburgh rather than Westminster which is a curious though successful means of campaigning.

Perhaps real interest should be diverted to the 2007 Notional result (as Cowdenbeath was a new seat because it shows that Scottish Politics seems to a polarised between the SNP and Labour

2007 Notional Result: Cowdenbeath
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour		11,349	43.0
	SNP		7,510	28.5
	Conservative		3,751	14.2
	Liberal Democrats		3,739	14.2
	Others		32	0.1
Majority			3,839	14.6

 

So the SNP has fallen back to roughly the same percentage before their unprecedented 2011 landslide The Liberal Democrats seem to disappearing from the Scottish Map Ukip are having little impact  the Conservatives seem to be making a small recovery.

 

Perhaps    the lesson for the SNP is that they need to concentrate more on Bread and Butter issues as well as Independence but with much of the media in Labour pocket and the fact they can enjoy the luxury of being the opposition when it comes to by-elections  probably means . No matter what they do or say they will be held reasonable  by a disgruntled electorate