Saturday, 25 January 2014

Cowdenbeat Labour win on Bread and Butter Issues?

How much we can take from the Cowdenbeath  byelection for the Sottish parliament  on the result of the forthcoming  Independence Election is open to question.

Election results

Cowdenbeath by-election, 2014
Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Alex Rowley 11,192 55.78 +9.28

SNP Natalie McGarry 5,704 28.43 -13.17

Conservative Dave Dempsey 1,893 9.44 +2.44

UKIP Denise Baykal 610 3.04 N/A

Liberal Democrats Jade Holden 425 2.12 -1.78

The Victims Final Right Stuart Graham 187 0.93 N/A

SDA James Trolland 51 0.25 N/A
Majority 5,488 27.35 +22.45
Turnout 20,062 38.41 -8.49





2011: Cowdenbeath
Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour Helen Eadie 11,926 46.5 +3.4

SNP Ian Chisholm 10,679 41.6 +13.1

Conservative Belinda Don 1,792 7.0 −7.2

Liberal Democrats Keith Legg 997 3.9 −10.3

Land Party Mick Heenan 276 1.1 n/a
Majority 1,247 4.9
Turnout 25,670 46.9

Labour hold Swing −4.8%

Clearly Labour were the winners but even they seem to think that it was other factors which were of importance,
“This is about a bigger vision for Scotland, a bigger vision than simply independence.
“It’s about full employment for every young person to get the opportunities that they deserve from their lifetime.
“It’s about elderly people living in Fife with dignity, and making sure when they need services those services are available.
“I will spend every day working hard to ensure that we do that.”
Picking up on the issue of the bedroom tax, which Labour seem to have successfully placed on the SNP shoulders. and which they seem to have the support of Tory papers like the Scotsman
“Finally, the message has got to go out in the Scottish Parliament right now that we can mitigate the bedroom tax.
“We can give people jobs, we can give people opportunities, we can do that with a strong, devolved Scottish Parliament working within the UK.
 It seems that Labour have managed to use The Bedroom Tax against the SNP government in Edinburgh rather than Westminster which is a curious though successful means of campaigning.

Perhaps real interest should be diverted to the 2007 Notional result (as Cowdenbeath was a new seat because it shows that Scottish Politics seems to a polarised between the SNP and Labour

2007 Notional Result: Cowdenbeath
Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Labour
11,349 43.0

SNP
7,510 28.5

Conservative
3,751 14.2

Liberal Democrats
3,739 14.2

Others
32 0.1
Majority 3,839 14.6

 

So the SNP has fallen back to roughly the same percentage before their unprecedented 2011 landslide The Liberal Democrats seem to disappearing from the Scottish Map Ukip are having little impact  the Conservatives seem to be making a small recovery.

 

Perhaps    the lesson for the SNP is that they need to concentrate more on Bread and Butter issues as well as Independence but with much of the media in Labour pocket and the fact they can enjoy the luxury of being the opposition when it comes to by-elections  probably means . No matter what they do or say they will be held reasonable  by a disgruntled electorate



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