Tuesday, 4 January 2011

Tory Lib-Dem merger on the cards?

In his latest Blog  René Kinsett makes a play for a merger between the Liberal Democrats and the Tories of course he switched parties and has stood for the Lib-Dems in the 2005 election and the Conservatives in the 2010 but whilst most would dismiss the idea of a merger, it is entirely possible that the two parties would enter into an electoral pact for the next election.

Senior Tory MP Mark Pritchard, secretary of the back-bench 1922 committee, suggested the "heart and soul of the Conservative Party" was under threat from ministers seeking a long-term settlement with the Lib Dems.
There may be indication in the Oldham and Saddleworth  by-election

The fact that the By-election was called after Labour's Phil Woolas was disqualified for producing dishonest election Literature would in theory have handed the Lib-Dems a virtual walkover. But since they have entered into coalition  with the Tories, they vote appears to be collapsing in the UK

The result in the 2010 election points to this being a three- way marginal

 Phil Woolas Labour          14,186 31.9 −10.7
 Elwyn Watkins Lib-Dem   14,083 31.6 −0.5
 Kashif Ali Con                  11,773 26.4 +8.7
 Alwyn Stott BNP              2,546 5.7 +0.8
 David Bentley UKIP         1,720 3.9 +1.8
 Gulzar Nazir Christian     212 0.5 N/A

And in theory the Tories under normal circumstances have had a good   chance as their Opinion Poll standing has not been so adversely affected. But  it seems Canmeron would not like to see his partners humiliated in failing to gain what as I have stated would be a walkover has ensured that the Conservatives are only fighting a "paper" campaign

The Truth of this may well only be found when the electoral expenses are published for  2010 those of the
Main Parties in Oldham and Saddlworth were.

Con 11773 Votes £15,904.41 Spent.
Lib 14083 Votes £36,246.62 Spent
Lab 14186 Votes £13,722.81 Spent.
.
You are allowed to spend much more in By-elections but if the Tories do match their rivals then our suspicions will be confirmed.

Of course at the moment there is no formal talk of a electoral pact but remember if the plan to reduce the number of MP's,and the creation of equal Constituencies of £80,000 then the political map will be redrawn and virtually every seat will be a new one which will make negotiations somewhat easier, except where a Conservative and Liberal Democrat seat are more or less combined. But in the next election most seats will be totally different and there will be less opposition from sitting MP's or parties that came second in 2010.

I have no doubt under these circumstance at leas tan informal arrangement will come about but whilst it will perhaps save the Likes of Nick Clegg it will mean the end of his party which will become nothing more than the "Liberal" wing of the Conservatives.

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