Friday, 31 December 2010

Looking into my Crystal Ball

  • The year will start with a number of Labour party members announcing they support for a no campaign but they will be seen to have little influence.   
  •  There will be a row in the Yes campaign  over whether they should compare the cuts from Westminster with a positive image of the Assembly. But this will strengthen the campaign
  • The Yes campaign will be won a though with less than 50% voting. there will be a Yes majority in Cardiff. Only Monmouth, Newport and Flint will vote No.
  • The referendum on the Alternative Vote will fail.although Wales and Scotland will have large votes for it.There will be a significant number of Ballots which will support the measure who will attempt to show preference for STV. 
  • Although the referendum on AV will be lost the proposal to cut the number of MPs will carry on it will mean the end of Ynys Mon and Montgomery as Historic constituencies although they will remain at the Assembly.  
  • There will be rumours of a number of Lib-Dems  splitting from the Party to join the existing "Liberal Party"  but it will come to nothing. 
  • There will be a number of new Blogs from people standing for  the Assembly but these will cease by April.
  • By the end of the year the Lib-Dems will have lost over 200 councilors through resignations who will now stand as independents this will not include the  many more they will lose in local elections.
  • The Assembly elections will see Labour just failing to get an overall majority. The Lib-Dems with 4 seats will fall over backwards to join them in coalition and try to distance themselves from their Westminster colleagues.
  • The Conservatives will lose 2 seats and will replace Nick Bourne as leader. They will be the first to propose the Assembly be called the Welsh Parliament. Nick Bourne will quit the Assembly by 2012.
  • Plaid will gain 1 or  2 seats one of whom will be Helyn Fychan as Plaid lose Conwy  this however will be seen as a Plus. They will decide to let the Lib-Dems join the Labour Party in power if Dafydd Elis Thomas decide to stand for Presiding Officer. Otherwise they will back him for Education Minister.
  • There will be a major campaign in support of S4C after the Assembly Elections. Support fro senior Plaid figures will depend on whether they are in government or not.
  • Peter Black will get more and more ridiculous on his Blog and will be privately told by La Pasionaria to cool it.
  • Adam Price will  not return to full time politics in the near future unless  there is an early by-election for the Assembly. 
  • There will be a major defection from Labour to Plaid which will be announced at their Autumn conference. 
  • The year will end with unrest in Labour over Ed Milibands leadership oddly this will not seem to have adverse effect on they Poll ratings which wil be 5% above the Tories. 

2 comments:

  1. “The Yes campaign will be won a though with less than 50% voting. there will be a Yes majority in Cardiff. Only Monmouth, Newport and Flint will vote No.”

    I'm not so sure about Newport, it could be really close, and could even go Yes. Powys might vote No however, especially given the scale of the Tory vote in Montgomery in 2010.



    “The referendum on the Alternative Vote will fail although Wales and Scotland will have large votes for it. There will be a significant number of Ballots which will support the measure who will attempt to show preference for STV.”

    Do you really think so? I haven't seen much enthusiasm for AV in Wales, certainly no more than in England.


    “There will be a major defection from Labour to Plaid which will be announced at their Autumn conference”

    I wonder who you're thinking of? I would have predicted a Lib Dem defection to either Labour or more likely Plaid.

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  2. Welsh Agenda.
    Blwyddyn Newedd Dda.

    I think Wales and Scotland may be more disposed to AV because they have more experience of PR in elections.

    I am going to make a suggestion on how to indicate how to support STV in the referendum ballot in this Blog in the near future.

    I'm afraid it would be wrong to mention anyone by name. But if Labour abandon its sudden conversion to a Welsh Identity and socialism as I suspect they will after the May elections. I am sure some prominent Labour members will be considering their position

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