Assembly bill likely to be challenged in supreme court.

It is likely that although  AMs have voted to fast-track a law to prevent what Welsh Government ministers have called a post-Brexit "power-grab"the UK government will appeal to the Supreme Court 

A bill was previously proposed by Plaid Cymru's Brexit spokesman Steffan Lewis last year. His proposal received unanimous backing in an assembly vote in January.

Though alas not this time  as the Welsh Conservative group in the assembly decided to vote against the bill, with Tory AM David Melding saying the timetable for debate was so "lightning fast that scrutiny would only be cursory where it would be possible at all".

Though many speculate they may have been rang up by number ten and told to behave,

Inrestingly, UKIP Wales leader Neil Hamilton supported the Continuity Bill, saying he could not see how it "gets in the way of the Brexit process".

Most of the UKIP group, which had a free vote, voted with Mr Hamilton with the exception of Gareth Bennett who voted against introducing the bill as emergency legislation 

A total of 44 AMs backed the plan, with 10 against.

The BBC claim that

The proposed law is the Welsh Government's insurance policy against plans included in the withdrawal bill, which is currently making its way through Parliament.
Under the bill's current plans, powers in devolved areas such as agriculture that are currently operated in Brussels are due to flow back to Westminster rather than Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast.
It has led to months of negotiations between UK, Welsh and Scottish government ministers about changing the bill.
UK Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington said, in a speech last week, that a "considerable" offer had been made to amend the bill, which would see the vast majority of the powers returning from the EU going to the devolved administrations.
But the proposals have been rejected by the Welsh and Scottish governments for not going far enough.
The discussions are set to continue, and the Welsh Government is asking AMs to agree to fast-track the bill so it can be passed before the withdrawal bill is passed into law by MPs in Westminster.
At least one academic has warned that the bill could lead to a Supreme Court challenge from the UK government. Scottish ministers have also proposed similar legislation.
Welsh Finance Secretary Mr Drakeford and Scottish Brexit Secretary Michael Russell will meet Mr Lidington on Thursday, ahead of further talks between the first ministers of Scotland and Wales, and Prime Minister Theresa May on 14 March.
A bill was previously proposed by Plaid Cymru's Brexit spokesman Steffan Lewis last year. His proposal received unanimous backing in an assembly vote in January.
A UK government spokesman has previously said that a Continuity Bill was unnecessary and that it would be better for the Welsh Government "to concentrate on reaching an agreement on the withdrawal bill".

This means the legislation will now pass through the assembly quicker than usual. The bill could clear the legislative process by as soon as 21 March, if AMs choose to make it law.

A similar bill has been proposed in Scotland , but I am afraid that the likelihood that if it goes to the supreme court then Westminster will win.

As John Dixon. writes on his Borthlas blog

I can understand why supporters of devolution see the UK Government’s approach to Brexit as being something of a ‘power-grab’ (and I welcome the Assembly’s efforts to protect its powers); but I can equally understand why the UK Government sees a body which has, from a London perspective, no more right to its existence than a county council as getting above itself when it dares to challenge the central power.  Legally, Westminster has every right to be “imposing its will on Wales and Scotland” as the Western Mail puts it.  And complaining about “an administration that considers itself superior” is empty rhetoric.

If we don’t want a body which is constitutionally superior to behave as though it is constitutionally superior, we need to take away its constitutional superiority.  At the least, that requires a change in the UK constitution to recognise that the people, not the monarch, are sovereign.  And for the Assembly to be treated as any sort of equal with Westminster requires us to treat powers held in Westminster as having been loaned to Westminster by the people of Wales rather than treat those exercised by the Assembly as having been loaned to the people of Wales by a hereditary monarch.  It’s a paradigm shift which I doubt the Western Mail is ready to make.

 In some ways I would welcome a Supreme Court decision if it backs the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament , it would recognise  some degree of sovereignty of devolved power, but if it does not it will rove that Westminster can not only take power back but abolish devolved legislatures in the same manner   that Margaret Thatcher abolished  Ken Livingston's GLC which she saw as a thorn in the side of her government  and despite the mass media attacks on the council could not rely on the democratic process seeing the Tories win control by elections.

Win or lose we may find that the next few months will define the constitutional  future of devolution.

Owen Jones is just another Unionist.

Left Foot forward report that the-Green Party members threw out suggestions that they should merge with Labour this weekend, voting against the idea at the party’s spring conference.
Owen Jones is just another  Unionist.
They report

The suggestion to the Greens was made most prominently by journalist Owen Jones – bringing scorn from Green Party members, and now officially from the party as a whole.
Owen Jones suggested that a merger of the parties ‘would end a pointless division on the British left’ and would ‘unite the English and Welsh left under one banner’ – but Green Party members aren’t so sure.
The Green’s spring conference voted yesterday to reject the idea of affiliating to Labour – and then went on to censor Labour’s policies and “woeful” internal democracy. The motion passed noted:

• Elected Greens are often the only viable opposition to Conservative administrations,
• Labour’s policies and actions on HS2, nuclear weapons and power, airport expansion, homelessness, libraries, estate demolition, the scapegoating of immigrants, tree felling, and more are not compatible with Green values,
• Labour does not support Proportional Representation, which is a high political priority for the Greens,
• Greens do not believe large broad coalition parties give voters enough choice nor that they produce effective government and are therefore not conducive to a good democracy,
• Labour’s internal democracy is woeful and not compatible with our members’ expectations of democratic policy making

 Owen Jones’ called for a Red/Green alliance between Labour and the Green Party has stimulated quite a debate – not least on the pros and cons of the electoral alliance that has existed between the Labour Party and the Co-operative Party seem rather hollow.

I wonder how many of the electorate realise that the Co-op party exists and have MPs

Of course if we had examples when they voted on bloc differently from Labour in Westminster he might have a case.

 Ever since Jeremy Corbyn became  Labour leader Owen Jones has changed from a progressive voice a total Labour Loyalist attacking the SNP in Scotland for the government there because he claims they have not tackled austerity enough.

He responded to criticism of this  with

What particularly riled my antagonists was Munro’s reference to “SNP and Tory austerity”. This is an argument made repeatedly by Jeremy Corbyn himself. “Scots have a choice in this election,” said Corbyn in May. “A Labour government which will govern for the many not the few, or the continuation of Tory and SNP austerity.”

The reason Corbyn’s Labour make this argument is that the SNP refuse to use their tax-raising powers to reverse Tory cuts: their argument that it would cause the rich to flee is the standard right-wing objection to progressive taxation. Furthermore, they enforced a council tax freeze for many years that caused cuts to services in Scotland.

The SNP would be more reliable allies of Corbyn, I’m repeatedly told. Odd, again, given Munro — who I was campaigning for — is a Corbyn supporter. Odd, too, given Nicola Sturgeon’s own publicly expressed view is that Corbyn’s Labour is “pitifully ineffective.” Odd, also, given the SNP wishes Scotland to leave a country potentially led by Corbyn.

In the coming months, I’ll be campaigning in Tory-held seats in England: Labour can take constituencies held by the likes of Iain Duncan-Smith and Boris Johnson. But I’m glad to have combined a visit to my parents with a campaign in a nearby marginal. That’s because I want Labour to win with left-wing candidates in Scotland, England and Wales so that we can have a left-wing Labour government — maybe even by the end of the year.

On a personal note, both my father and grandfather depend on Scotland’s NHS. I want a Scotland free of the devastating cuts of the last few years — and only a Labour government can deliver that.

Finally: a word on political culture and debate. The fury unleashed on my timeline by my campaigning as a left-wing Labour supporter for a left-wing Labour candidate is utterly astonishing. It is disturbing, as well. It is not healthy. If the aim was to intimidate or deter (because there was certainly little attempt to persuade), then I’m afraid it will have the opposite.

He mentions  Wales but fails to address the uncomfortable argument that Labour in Wales despite running the Assembly since its inception has totaly failed to protect Wales and make the SNP government  look like a socialist Utopia by comparison.

His argument that the a merger of the Greens  in England and Wales
 

 ‘would end a pointless division on the British left’ and would ‘unite the English and Welsh left under one banner’

may  in part be because there is no separate Wales Green party unlike Scotland, but it reads like old fashioned left-unionism to me.

How can you have a united-left by ignoring Plaid ?

I have long argued for a progressive alliance  against the Tories but even under Corbyn as the Greens' have pointed out Labour can not be described as a progressive party. 

By the way where does Owen Jones stand on Jeremy Corbyn's support for May's hard brexit?

The trouble with Left-Unionists like Owen Jones  is that they believe all that's needed is a Left-Labour government 

But that will be as London centric as previous UK governments

Real change can only come with real devolution of power throughout the UK and an acceptance that if sone parts want independence they be granted t.

 

 

Could we have coped with weeks of the likes Storm Emma?

Much of the UK has been on lock-down for nearly a week as we faced severe weather courtesy of Storm Emma.

Within a few days supermarket shelves were empty as people  not only bought essential food items like  bread and milk, but also saw supermarkets closed and those that remained open failing to replenish stocks.

It makes you wonder how we would cope if we had a similar blizzard to 1962-63 where it lasted weeks  or the The 1982 blizzard when it snowed almost non stop for 36 hours.

This time the snow was not so deep but such was the nature of Storm Emma it was virtually impossible to move in it and just as one section of road was cleared it was blown backed again.

As before however we saw a great community spirit  in 1982 it emerged through the medium of local radio, but this time it was social media like Facebook that came into its own.

My local "Beddau Hub" on Facebook  almost immediately saw people owning 4 by 4s offering  to ferry or take home health workers from  local hospitals.

Other offered to shopping for people who were unable to get to the shops.

We were kept updated on what was open or closed .

We need to take a lesson from this and expand  such innovation  in the future.

However we need to ask some question/

Given that we knew days beforehand that the "Beast from the East" was coming why wasn't the army deployed before hand so they could respond  with their all terrain vehicles in the areas that were going to get the worst of it?

Fortunately we don't get these weather conditions often and we can't responds like Canada where they can have 60 day's snow and have heavily invested in the the machinery to deal with it.

The local response in my area was magnificent , but central and local government knew this was coming , should we look into how they responded?

Councillors should consider Sanitary Pads over Ipads

Leigh Richards over at Rodolfo Walsh's Glasses has covered the news that Rhondda Cynon Taff council has supported a proposal to provide free sanitary products to schoolgirls in the area amd it may well be best if you started on his page here.

After SNP pilot project in Aberdeen giving sanitary towels and tampons free to all women in the area who need them.It has been left to  Elyn Stephens, a Plaid Cymru Councillor who explained.

“Think of it as toilet paper,” “You wouldn’t be expected to bring in your own toilet paper to school or ask a teacher for toilet paper. My older sister is ten years older than me, her niece is ten years younger than me, and in thirty years nothing has changed.”

 “What’s scary is there’s so little information about how many absences there are [due to period poverty],” she adds. “But it’s not just about absence. You can be in a lesson, but you’re not concentrating because of the worry.

“A lot of older people and men just assumed sanitary products were given out in schools. That it’s a done deal. And if you have predominantly older men in charge, nothing changes. I’m not the average age of a councillor. I’ve been involved in youth politics and this was a topic we discussed, so it was just normal. It was almost a shock it hadn’t been raised somewhere it could make a difference.
“If anyone takes anyone from this, speak to their daughters, their nieces, their sisters and find out the situation in their school. People are not having these conversations and people assume it’s being taken care of. Find out the situation and lobby your local council.”
”

It is truly a scandal  that this scheme is only just being considered , maybe its because political power is male dominated and it is a mystery to them.

You could bet your pension that if men were faced with a monthly expenses burden we would have seen action taken decades ago 

 The move is estimated to cost about £70,000, something Elyn says is a “drop in the ocean”, especially when councillors have all been provided iPads at a similar total cost.

Free ipads but not sanitary pads  there a certain irony here/

As Rights Info reports

 

Frustrated at the lack of change the politician decided to take matters into her own hands, bringing a motion to council that all secondary schools in the borough should provide free sanitary products to pupils. Similar to a recent pilot scheme by the SNP in Aberdeen, the move would mean those who are unable products would be able to get them safely and discreetly.

Now the motion has passed in Rhondda Cynon Taff, officers will prepare a report on the feasibility of the scheme, which will then go back to the council for final approval or dismissal. However, whatever happens in the county, Elyn thinks the most important thing is that younger people get involved in politics and raise the issues which matter to them.

How right she is lets have more councillors like  Elyn in every party who understand the needs of the people in their community and consider their priorities such as  sanitary pads over ipads  .

The Tories are going to blame Brexit disaster on Remainers

 If there is one thing clear about Brexit it is that the Tory Government are totally incompetent in their handling of it,

From Chief negotiator David Davis who seems to have ignored civil servant briefings , indeed meeting EU officials with no notes to Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson's comparing the complex challenges posed by Brexit to Northern Ireland’s border, to those faced when managing the boundary between two London boroughs. 

It would be laughable that The Foreign Secretary claim that the UK would handle the border with the Republic of Ireland using technology, explaining how as London Mayor he electronically levied the congestion charge on vehicles crossing the boundary between Camden and Westminster if it did not reflect that he hasn't a clue how boarders work hard or soft.

 First Minister Carwyn Jones has claimed that

Theresa May's keynote Brexit speech had "too many vague aspirations and scant detail",


In another case of wanting her cake and eating it no matter how small Mrs May insisted the UK would leave the EU single market and customs union, but aimed for "frictionless" trade through a bespoke free trade deal.


The prime minister told an audience at Mansion House in London: "We are leaving the single market - life is going to be different."
Stressing her desire to see the "broadest and deepest possible partnership" between the UK and EU, Mrs May accepted that access to each other's markets would be "less than it is now".
But she pledged that many UK regulations would remain "in step" with those of the EU, and wanted to see "as frictionless a border as possible" supported by associate membership of EU agencies for matters such as medicine, chemicals and aviation.
However, the prime minister said any disputes about the future relationship could not be ruled on by "the court of either party", stressing that the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK "must end"


First Minister Jones, who is on a visit to north America, tweeted:

 "Still too many vague aspirations & scant detail from @Theresa_May - we all want frictionless trade, but the Prime Minister has failed to spell out how she intends to achieve this outside a customs union.
"The promise of new trade deals will simply not replace the benefits of access to the Single Market & the thousands of jobs dependent on this. This is the hard fact the Prime Minister must accept. #RoadtoBrexit."

Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood claimed the speech "raised more questions than it answered", asking: "If the prime minister wants to stay in so many EU institutions, why leave the single market which she admitted will put barriers in place over trade?"
She said Mrs May had not allayed fears of a Whitehall "power grab" over devolved policies after Brexit, saying:

 "If she is so passionate about preserving the union, why threaten the devolved governments with a legal battle?
"It is clear that the prime minister is intent on tearing up diplomatic ties with UK countries and tearing up economic ties with EU nations.
"She is sowing division when we need unity, and uncertainty when we need stability."

Prehaps the true telling of how Mrs May's sppech really told us nothing  of what we are facing is Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies  saying the prime minister

 "was clear and resolute in her pledge to deliver the change Wales and the United Kingdom voted for in June 2016".
"Her speech sets out an ambitious vision for our future economic partnership with the EU; one which allows us to take back control of our money, borders and laws, while ensuring a strong and enduring mutual prosperity for our citizens," he said.
"We urge politicians of all stripes to get behind the prime minister and her team as this next critical phase in the negotiations gets under way.
"It is the shared interest of the UK and the EU that these talks are a success."

I saw no ambition or attempt to reach out to Europe, Indeed it seemed to be another attempt to claim  a disastrous Brexir outcome  will be the fault of the EU for not allowing the cake and eat it approach and for anyone who criticises the UK government approach as the work of saboteurs.

Like Generals who have overseen a military disaster  blames  it on "Traitors within".

The argument will be in a few years from now will be that

"We would have got a better deal if Remainers had not got behind Mrs May and just allowed the whole process to go through on the nos.

Trying to blame those who tried to warn you of a disaster ahead is a old trick and often work.

Even the fact that the main opposition party (Labour) have so far failed in their duty to oppose the governments Hard Brexit will be blamed for the  economic disaster Mrs May is leading us into.

Indeed anyone predicting Mrs May's failure to get a Trade deal from the EU  and be shafted by President Trump, will according to the Tories and the UK media be held responsible.







 

Latest Opinion polls see some Plaid comfort.

The annual BBC Wales St David’s Day.has seen little change in Westminster voting intentions but a shift in the Welsh Assembly predictions.

Professor Roger Scully who has been doing the number  crunching writes

First, let’s look at voting intentions for a general election. These are the figures produced by ICM. (As we have no recent evidence from ICM in Wales to compare with, in brackets I will show the changes on the percentage vote share that each party won at last year’s general election. Anyone wishing to compare these figures with those from the last Welsh Political Barometer poll by YouGov should click here.)
Westminster Voting Intention

Labour: 49% (+0.1) Conservatives: 32% (-1.6) Plaid Cymru: 11% (+0.6) Liberal Democrats: 5% (+0.5) UKIP: 2% (no change) Others: 3% (+2.5)

So if there was a General Election tomorrow  on a uniform   there would be probably no change in Wales in Westminster MP's. Which is bad news for Labour who despite  the Tories Brexit mess are nowhere near the 1997 level which saw every Tory MP in Wales lose their seat.

Its also remarkable that there is still no sign of a Liberal Democrat revival (apart for local government byelections) and it seems tier hopes their Anti-Brexit voters will back them seems (at the moment  in vain).

Of course as we found out last year things can change dramatically in the weeks leading up to polling day, but talk of Jeremy Corbyn forcing a Commons defeat on Mrs May and another elections are not favoured with the above and UK polls.


Profffesor Scully continues

 

What about the National Assembly? ICM found the following levels of support for the parties on the constituency ballot (with changes since the last Assembly election again indicated in brackets):

National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention
Labour: 40% (+5.3) Plaid Cymru: 24% (+3.5) Conservatives: 22% (+0.9) Liberal Democrats: 6% (-1.7) UKIP: 5% (-7.5) Others: 3% (-0.5)

Once again we see Labour in a substantial lead. However, this poll gives rather more encouragement for Plaid Cymru than did the last Barometer poll, which had them down on 19 percent for the constituency ballot. Conversely, this poll is less good for the Welsh Conservatives, who were on 26 percent in the November Barometer poll. ICM do seem to confirm, however, the lack of any progress being made by the Welsh Lib-Dems, and that UKIP now have much lower support levels than at the time of the May 2016 Assembly election.
Rather remarkably, if we use uniform swing to project the changes since 2016 suggested by this poll onto all seats in Wales, it indicates not a single constituency seat changing hands! This reflects the fact that in 2016 many constituencies were held by Labour despite their overall vote share falling substantially; the new poll simply projects those seats to become more comfortable Labour ‘holds’. The nearest any seat comes to being projected to change is Aberconwy, but on these figures Plaid Cymru fall narrowly short of gaining it from the Conservatives.
What about the regional ballot? ICM got these results (with changes on 2016 again in brackets):

National Assembly Regional Voting Intention
Labour: 36% (+4.5) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+1.2) Conservatives: 21% (+2.2) UKIP: 8% (-5.0)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (-0.5) Others: 5% (-4.5)

 
This, in turn, gives us the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:

Labour 30 seats (27 constituency, 3 regional) + 1
Plaid Cymru 15 seats (6 constituency, 9 regional)  + 3
Conservative 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional) + 2
UKIP 1 seat (1 regional)  -6
Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency) No change 


So Plaid the big winners , but no change in Labour dominance of the Welsh Assembly assuming Kirsty Williams (The former La Pasionaria) of the oppositio9n benches rejoins the cabine in not a coalition"  



Mind you if Dafydd Elis Thomas tands as an Independent in  Dwyfor Meirionnydd it might make  an impact/

Elections in the 2010s

Welsh Assembly Election 2016: Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Plaid Cymru	Dafydd Elis-Thomas	9,566	47.3	+0.7
	Conservative	Neil Fairlamb	3,160	15.6	−4.8
	Labour	Ian MacIntyre	2,443	12.1	−0.6
	UKIP	Frank Wykes	2,149	10.6	+10.6
	Independent	Louise Hughes	1,259	6.2	+6.2
	Liberal Democrats	Stephen Churchman	916	4.5	−0.3
	Green	Alice Hooker-Stroud	743	3.7	+3.7
Majority			6,406
Turnout				46.7
	Plaid Cymru hold		Swing	+0.4

How much personal vote does he have? Could he win as an Independent  or split the Plaid vote and let Labour or the Torrieswin.



Will Labour stand against him  or either endorse him or even see Dafydd El as the Labour candidate.


If they lost Dwyfor Meirionnydd it  would be a blow for Plaid if not affecting  their overall seat allocation making it up on the regional lists.  Though this may have already been included in Professor Scully ) predictions,.

 Its a long way to go and the current Labour internal problems are set to continue , how this will effect them (given the lack of political coverage in the media here) may be a major factor in  2021.

Do we need a new Anti-Brexit Party?

  The Wasting Mule reports that

A new political party which hopes to boost the pro-EU cause in the way that Ukip turbo-charged euroscepticism is on the hunt for candidates in Wales.
Renew has the goal of not only stopping Brexit but addressing factors which fuelled the June 2016 vote to leave the EU.
Mr Torrance acknowledges that for most people Brexit is not the most important issue in their lives and for Renew to succeed it must address wider concerns.
He said: “The key message for us is that there are lots of issues that really need to be solved in the country and that Brexit will make solving them much, much harder... We stop Brexit so we can get on with solving the rest of the problems which exist.”
ead of Strategy, is meeting with potential candidates in Cardiff today.When asked how confident he is that Brexit can be stopped, he said:

“I’m a solid nine and a half [out of ten] at the moment. I think it’s going to be incredibly hard work.

“It’s a massive challenge but it’s something we’re up for and the more people we talk to we realise we can do this but we have to keep fighting for it.”

The party wants to “crowd source” candidates to stand in each of the UK’s 650 constituencies.

Some would argue whether Mr Torrace would be better off supporting Parties which are opposing Brexit  like the Liberal Democrats or Plaid in Scotland in Wales or Scotland,


There may or not be a clue in Mr Torrance be a former member of the Conservative party but he was “very unhappy” with Theresa May’s “attitude towards Brexit [and] people who voted Remain in general”.

He stood as an independent in Kensington but won a mere 393 votes. The experience did not put him off and Renew has won UK-wide media attention.

Mr Torrance acknowledges that for most people Brexit is not the most important issue in their lives and for Renew to succeed it must address wider concerns.
He said: 

“The key message for us is that there are lots of issues that really need to be solved in the country and that Brexit will make solving them much, much harder... We stop Brexit so we can get on with solving the rest of the problems which exist.”

Of course Ukip was not  only a Euro sceptic party when it found initial success but also fought on a right wing platform in which  immigration was prominent.

It also found success in elections where Proportional Representation  figured heavily ironically the European Elections together in the Assembly Elections, but when it came to Westminster Elections , despite reaching 12.9 % of the vote in the 2015 general election Ukip won only one seat antdthat was of a former Tory MP who defected.

Even if Renew were to  match that vote it would also fail to win seats , but also probably see Anti- Brexit candidates defeated

 The UK electoral system is unfair and undemocratic but until we change it the prospects for Mr Torrance's party seems bleak.

I would suggest  Mr Torrance Renew should consider  endorsing candidates in established parties running an Anti-Brexit campaign.

It may even help to establish a progressive alliance  that opposes Brexit but also seeks constitutional reform including the introduction of Proportional Representation.

Renew not fighting seats is perhaps not a democratic answer for a new party but it is a more effective one.