Friday 16 February 2018

Do the DUP really want an agreement to restore NI power-sharing executive?

It is beginning to look that the Northern Ireland Assembly may not convene after nearly a year after the last Assembly Elections the

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said a draft agreement was in place last week to restore Northern Ireland's power-sharing executive.
The talks ended on Wednesday after the DUP declared there was "no current prospect" of a deal. 

Ms McDonald said the agreement included an Irish language Act and the DUP was warned to "close the deal before those opposed to it could unpick" it.
However, DUP leader Arlene Foster said that no draft agreement was in place.
Mrs Foster told Sky News that Sinn Féin "certainly didn't have an offer of an Irish language act".

She said,
"We didn't reach an agreement,"
"I regret that we didn't reach an agreement - they were insisting that they have this stand-alone Irish language act and that is not something I could sign up to - I have always been very clear about that."

But do the  DUP want a deal where it will power share in Stormont when it  can pull the strings in Westminster where the  deal between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) includes an extra £1bn in public spending for Northern Ireland.

They may well be alarmed that Unionists  are loosing their majority in Stormont. where since the first pst Good Friday Agreement Elections  although they have replaced the Ulster Unionist as the main party of Unionism.Sinn Féin is heading to become the largest party there in the future

1996 Elections 108 seats.


Party Votes Vote % Constituency
seats
Top-up
seats
Total
seats

UUP 181,829 24.17 28 2 30

SDLP 160,786 21.36 19 2 21

DUP [1] 141,413 18.80 22 2 24

Sinn Féin 116,377 15.47 15 2 17

Alliance 49,176 6.54 5 2 7

UK Unionist 27,774 3.69 1 2 3

PUP 26,082 3.47 0 2 2

Ulster Democratic 16,715 2.22 0 2 2

NI Women's Coalition 7,731 1.03 0 2 2

Labour coalition 6,425 0.85 0 2 2

Green (NI) 3,647 0.49 0 0 0


2017 Elections 90 seats


Party Leader Seats Votes[41] NI Executive
Seats
Candi-
dates
won Change
from
2016
Change
from
notional
First
Preference
votes
First
Pref. %
Change
from
2016
Seats Change
from
2016

DUP Arlene Foster 38 28 Decrease10 Decrease5 225,413 28.1% Decrease1.1%


Sinn Féin Michelle O'Neill 34 27 Decrease1 Increase4 224,245 27.9% Increase3.9%


SDLP Colum Eastwood 21 12 Steady Increase1 95,958 11.9% Decrease0.1%


UUP Mike Nesbitt 24 10 Decrease6 Decrease1 103,314 12.9% Increase0.3%


Alliance Naomi Long 21 8 Steady Steady 72,717 9.1% Increase2.1%


Green (NI) Steven Agnew 18 2 Steady Steady 18,527 2.3% Decrease0.4%


TUV Jim Allister 14 1 Steady Steady 20,523 2.6% Decrease0.9%


People Before Profit Eamonn McCann 7 1 Decrease1 Steady 14,100 1.8% Decrease0.2%


PUP Billy Hutchinson 3 0 Steady Steady 5,590 0.7% Decrease0.2%


NI Conservatives Emma Pidding 13 0 Steady Steady 2,399 0.3% Decrease0.1%


Labour Alternative Owen McCracken 4 0 Steady Steady 2,009 0.3% Steady


UKIP None 1 0 Steady Steady 1,579 0.2% Decrease1.3%


CISTA Barry Brown 3 0 Steady Steady 1,273 0.2% Decrease0.2%


Workers' Party John Lowry 5 0 Steady Steady 1,261 0.2% Steady


Independents N/A 22 1 Steady Increase1 14,407 1.8% Decrease1.5%

those

This appears to be the pattern where  those  Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA's ) who are designated as Unionist have been falling over the last twenty years.




Which parties can appoint ministers to the Northern Ireland Executive is determined by a combination of mandatory coalition, the D'Hondt method and cross-community support, depending on the role, as explained above. Coalitions of between three and five parties have governed over the Assembly's history. The Executive of the Sixth Assembly has yet to be formed.

In effect, major parties cannot be excluded from participation in government and power-sharing is enforced by the system. The form of government is therefore known as mandatory coalition as opposed to voluntary coalition where parties negotiate an agreement to share power. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and some Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) members favour a move towards voluntary coalition in the longer term but this is currently opposed by Sinn Féin.

Could it be that the DUP  foresee the day when there is a majority voluntary coalition  of "designated nationalists" and in Stormont and would be prepared to se the end of Stormont before seeing Sinn Féin's Michelle O'Neill or at least her successor installed as First Minster.

Although they have been opposed to a Hard Boarder also fear that some of those who have voted Unionist may well see a United Ireland which would be in the European Union as preferable to a divided Ireland in which they are part of an isolated UK , begging for Trade Deals with the USA and China no matter how unfavourable?


 where they are tied to  Can they encouraged with the

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