Tuesday, 12 September 2017

Labour's Welsh Hegemony set to continue.

Wales is looking to return to Pre-1970 Two-Party  politics as  the Labour party’s strengthen its hegemony with the latest  has taken them up to fifty percent support in Wales with pony the Tories with any real support.

The latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, the first systematic test of public attitudes and voting intentions since last June’s general election.
The w poll explored voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. These are the voting intention figures for a general election that our poll produced (with changes on the general election result in June indicated in brackets):
Labour: 50% (+1.1)
Conservatives: 32% (-1.6)
Plaid Cymru: 8% (-2.4)
Liberal Democrats: 4% (-0.5)
UKIP: 3% (+1)
Others: 2% (+1.5)
 Professor Roger Scully of the university’s Wales Governance Centre said:
 “Labour would capture Aberconwy from the Conservatives, and Arfon from Plaid Cymru.”
The Liberal Democrats were wiped out in June but the polling suggests the party could win back Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru. Such a move would leave today’s four-strong Plaid group with just two MPs; the Conservatives would be left with seven, a drop of one.
The Barometer poll also asked once more about voting intentions for the National Assembly. For Westminster, as seen above, the two largest Britain-wide parties are a long way ahead of all the others: for the moment, at least, traditional two-part politics has re-asserted itself. In the devolved context things are rather different. Labour once again have a commanding lead, but they now have two significant competitors – Plaid Cymru as well as the Conservatives. Here are the figures for the constituency vote (with changes since the last Barometer poll to ask about such matters, in late May, again in brackets)

Labour: 43% (+1)
Conservatives: 25% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-1)
Others: 3% (+1)
Here are the figures for the regional list vote (with changes in party support since May once again indicated in brackets): 
Labour: 40% (+2)
Conservatives: 23% (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 19% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-1)
Others: 6% (+1)
 Taking into account the projected constituency results, and once more assuming uniform national swings since May 2016, our poll provides the following projected outcome for the regional list seats: 
North Wales: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Labour
Mid & West Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Plaid, 2 Conservative
South Wales Central: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 UKIP, 1 Plaid
 According to Professor Scully This, in turn, gives us the following overall projected result for the National Assembly:
Labour 31 seats (27 constituency, 4 regional)
Conservative 16 seats (6 constituency, 10 regional)
Plaid Cymru 11 seats (6 constituency, 5 regional)
UKIP 1 seats (1 regional)
Liberal Democrats 1 seats (1 constituency)
Prof Scully said in his online analysis 
 “Overall, this is clearly a very good poll for the Labour party – one fully in line with the strong showings that the party has been making in Britain-wide polls, and in many local council by-elections, since the June general election. Welsh Labour had not previously reached 50% support for Westminster in any poll since February 2013.
“The incredible political turnaround that the party achieved during the general election campaign continues to have some life in it. The Conservatives have slipped only a little bit since the general election, and remain at what are, by historic standards, quite high levels of support for them in Wales.
I suppose we shouldn't have expected any real change since May as any "Welsh" factor continues to be subdued by Brexit and the absence of any Welsh Media.

For Plaid it is surely a clear indication that they need to push their Unique Selling Point of Independence starting with a comparison to a comparison with Scotland which despite a Unionist "SNP Bad"  still as strong support for that Party and indeed Independence.

Certainly Plaid needs to go in to the next Elections for both the Assembly and Westminster with a "Parity with Scotland" campaign and drop their seeming acceptance that Wales is currently to poor economically to seek Independence.

The hypocrisy of Jeremy Corbyn in calling for the S to use powers to offset austerity when it is already doing so and not pointing out the failure of his own party in Wales do do so in the Welsh Assembly should point to Labour  reverting to its belief that only winning in Westminster matters  and the idea that we could see Progressive Left Wing governments in the Welsh and Scottish legislatures  is irrelevant  to  gaining power in the House of Commons.

Blarite or Corbynist  Labour are Unionist to the core  and Wales and Scotland are relevant  only n sending Lobby fodder to Westminster, where the cause of both Nations are ignored under a London centric mindset.

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