Monday, 15 November 2010

Do the Lib-Dems really want a by-election in Oldham and Saddleworth?


I was going to post on peter Black’s latest piece of cant but Plaid Wrecsam beat me to it. and dealt with it rather effectively, also a hat tip to Jaxxland for the piece on the same subject especially his picture of La Pasionaria on the NHS (have a look before its changed”

But you can understand Peters air of desperation,  because they look to be in serious trouble.

In theory much of this could be allayed if they were to win the forth coming Oldham and Saddleworth By-election.

This should be a Shoe in. After all the disgraceful behaviour of Labour during the General Election in this constituency must have influenced voters there  and the LIb-Dems would surely be expecting to win it easily. However running at 10% in the UK according to the latest yougov polls they may be just a little apprehensive about they chances there.

Also political commentators seem to be missing the fact that Oldahm and Saddleworth is three way marginal.

General Election 2010: Oldham East and Saddleworth[9]
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
±%

14,186
31.9
−10.7

Elwyn Watkins
14,083
31.6
−0.5

Kashif Ali
11,773
26.4
+8.7

Alwyn Stott
2,546
5.7
+0.8

David Bentley
1,720
3.9
+1.8

Gulzar Nazir
212
0.5
N/A
Majority
103
0.2
−10.2
44,520
61.2
+4.4
Void election result
Swing
−5.1

The actual swing in the constituency was in any case to the Conservatives who are 5.5% behind Labour. So I think talk of the Tories putting up a Paper Candidate seems to be unlikely in a seat they could win. And If they did so  not wishing to damage their coalition partners (at least not at the moment) the electorate will surely smell a rat.

Also I suspect Labour in particular have been reluctant to expose Lib-Dem dirty tricks for fear of being accused of  supporting the  disgraced Phil Woolas; But I’m sure this will increase as the date of the by-election approaches. Just Google Lib-Dem dirty tricks  for more than a few examples.

If the Lib-dems won then they would probably have a boost in the opinion polls but if they were to lose then I suspect there will be cursing Elwyn Watkins the defeated Lib-Dem who brought the case.

There will also be an interesting council Welsh By- election in the Cilau-Aeron ward of Ceredigion council given that the former Plaid Councillor resigned under a cloud . We would suppose the LiB-Dems would be seeking their first  council win in Wales since the General Election. Watch {Peter's Blog if there's no mention of it after November 30th they failed.

2 comments:

  1. I should say at the start that I'm not a Lib Dem.

    I tried googling 'Lib Dem Dirty Tricks' and all I got was an anonomous anti ib dem blog called Nasty Lib Dems, several Blogs by prominant Tory supporters, and a few articles in the Daily (Hate) Mail and the Torygraph.

    Clearly none of those can be regarded as objective or reputable sources, so there isnlt any evidence so far that the Lib Dems engage in dirty tricks.

    I also think that describing the Woolas campaign as 'dirty tricks' trivialises it. It was a nasty racist smear campaign, designed to whip up racist sentiment for his own advantage, and however much Labour supporters (I know you aren't one) try to laugh it off and attack the Lib Dems that fact doesnt change.

    All parties probably use 'dirty tricks' to some extent - I know Labour do as I remember seeing leaflet with completely opposing views delivered on behalf of the same candidate to different commmunities within same constituency!

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  2. Anonymous:
    I certainly agree that Woolas' campaign was particularly Nasty and Racist and said so when I first posted on this issue.
    I think the evidence for Lib-Dem dirty tricks is there. Those commenting on them will naturally be partisan but they are often valid.
    The Association of Liberal Democrat Councillors (ALDC) actually produced a booklet out-laying some of these dirty tricks, but its now withdrawn when it became public knowledge.

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