Friday 30 November 2012

Badgering BBC Cymru



I imagine that First Minister Carwyn Jones is prowling the corridors of the Asembly Building trying to find out what idiot demanded S4C cancel a repeat of an episode of Welsh soap opera Pobol y Cwm because of its portrayal of the government policy on badgers.

According to the Mule 
A spokesman for the Welsh Government confirmed that it had made an official complaint to the BBC and S4C about a “serious breach” of BBC and Ofcom guidelines in a storyline about tuberculosis in cattle.
The government believes last night’s episode of the Welsh language soap breached the public broadcasters’ duty of impartiality and have asked for tonight’s repeat (Thursday) - scheduled for 6.30pm - be cancelled.

But the Liberal Democrats said it was “astonished” that the the government could get “het up” about a soap opera, and compared its actions to that of Thick of It spin doctor Malcolm Tucker. The Welsh Government has also come under fire from Plaid Cymru and the Tories.

The Mule continues ...


A Welsh Government spokesman told WalesOnline: "Following last night's episode of Pobol y Cwm, we have made an official complaint to the BBC and S4C following what we believe to be a serious breach of BBC and Ofcom guidelines. We have asked the BBC and S4C to take swift action to address our concerns.
"The BBC's editorial guidelines are clear that programmes are expected to ensure that 'controversial subjects' are treated with due impartiality in all their output. We do not believe this to be the case in this instance.
“The BBC's guidelines also state that organisations criticised in programming should be given a ‘right of reply’, that is, given a fair opportunity to respond to the allegations.’ In this case, the Welsh Government was not afforded a right of reply."



The  storyline revolves around  a couple running a farm worried that TB had returned to their farm.

The episode features a character which goes on a local radio station, Cwm FM, to voice her frustrations with the badger policy. where she complains that the Welsh Government  “didn’t have the backbone” to sort the problem out and that badgers were a “plague” and should all be shot.

Perhaps the WAG would like a character who is facing ruin  to be portrayed as being calm and being reasonable

Maybe the dialogue should have been

"Well obviously we are upsets but the problem of Badgers with TB is complex and there's more than one side to the argument of how to deal with it . So I can't really blame anyone".

Maybe the Assembly should open a censors office to run through such scripts .

We can only ponder who was responsible for this intervention . Presumably it was someone in the part of the Assembly who deal with rural issues and who enjoys bullying people .

Are the Initials AD anyway connected?







Thursday 29 November 2012

All Parties in Wales should treat Welsh equally.



The Western Mule reports that  Welsh Language Commissioner Meri Huws has published a set of proposed new standards that will force public bodies to increase significantly their commitment to providing services in Welsh.

Ms Huws’ report – Standards Relating to the Welsh Language: the Welsh Language Commissioner’s Proposals –sets out a detailed list of 37 standards, which could become legal requirements by 2014.

The report repeatedly states that “the Welsh language must be treated no less favourably that the English language.”


The document means that in future Welsh speakers could expect to receive correspondence and phone calls in Welsh, along with accessing Welsh-speaking doctors and carers.

Signage, corporate slogans and websites will all be affected by the new requirements and firms not complying could face a fine of £5,000

Expect the Anti-Welsh Backlash on the Mules comments page.

But we should expect our AMs to accept the report and implement in .

However before they do so they should see that they respective Parties act in faith and ensure " the Welsh language must be treated no less favourably that the English language.”

This means every Political party in Wales should make sure that...

  • Their Websites are fully bilingual and accessible in Welsh and English
  • Leaflets that are produced these Parties are Bilingual 
  • Posters are Bilingual
  • Their correspondence is accessible in Welsh as well as England.
  • From Holyhead to Chepstow  they treat the Welsh language equally.

Prehaps there could be help given to smaller Parties like the Greens and Independents  to ensure they can translate Leaflets.

How can the Assembly legislate for public bodies to provide services they own Party is not prepared to carry out ? Anything less is unacceptable..

And Yes I note that this Blog is in English only but I'm a  Monoglot Individual and not a organisation..





Wednesday 28 November 2012

Four AMs show courage on Mental Health Stigma.Whose that on the right?

If a MP or AM were to announce that they had beaten Cancer . They would receive admiration and congratulations from us irrespective of their political allegiance.

If he or she had announced they overcome acute depression unfortunately the result would not be so positive.

So it is welcome the Four of our MPs  Eluned Parrott, LibDEm  Ken SkatesLab, David Melding Con and Llyr Huws Gruffydd  Plaid have spoken about they own battles with Mental Illness.


The four have written publicly of their experiences of mental illness in a bid to tackle the stigma and discrimination associated with mental health problems.on the Time to Change Wales website.

The posts come ahead of a National Assembly debate to be held on Wednesday calling on the Welsh Government to acknowledge the discrimination faced by people with mental health problems.

In the blogs, Eluned Parrott, Ken Skates, David Melding and Llyr Huws Gruffydd talk about Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD), depression and post-natal depression and the issues they faced surrounding their illnesses including whether to disclose it to employers or family, the fear of prejudice and the symptoms experienced.

The AMs all deserve our praise for the courage in speaking out and making  a contribution to what is still a stigma .

We need to realise the illness part of Mental Illness and place that clear in out minds and we mist include alcoholism in this for it to is an illness .

Our AMs and MPs are no different from us they get ill and we treat them in the sane way we would ourselves with sympathy.

We have a long way to go but the four have made a brave step inhelping to removie this stigma an we should congratulate them.

P.S. In their coverage of this the Mule seems to have the wrong picture of Llyr Huws Gruffydd
Whose that on the right?
As he's changed lately  or its the wrong one?  but then it is the Mule.


Tuesday 27 November 2012

Internal Labour row over control of schools,




The Western Mule  claims the it can reveal  that the Welsh Government proposal that could see schools taken out of local authority control is causing huge divisions within Welsh Labour,

Hardly a shock .

Education Minister Leighton Andrews announcement  that a wide-ranging review into education delivery will consider whether school services should be managed centrally by the Welsh Government rather than Wales’ 22 unitary councils as bound


The Mule could  not many critics  on the record but Nigel Dix, a member of the controlling Labour group on Caerphilly council, and former True Wales stalwart said:

It is completely wrong to consider taking responsibility for schools away from local authorities.
“This has gone down extremely badly. Leighton Andrews seems to be forgetting that we have been democratically elected and are directly accountable to the people. That would not be the case under some new arrangements involving regional quangos.
“Some people are suggesting that by proposing this Leighton is seeking to give himself an alibi ahead of the next set of Pisa results, which are unlikely to be much better than the last lot. Blaming local authorities is an easy option.
“The fact is that major decisions affecting schools, like the national curriculum etc, are already taken at Welsh Government level.”
Western Mail 27 November 2012


Of course you would expect Councils to seek to keep such a level of control with  five local authorities, of different political make-up, in special measures or in need of serious improvement – with a further five being monitored. and Wales once a beacon for Education  seemingly falling behind the rest of the UK are Councils up to running a major Education service or should we seek another solution .

Plaid's spokesman  on local government pointed our that

“Structurally, you would struggle to understand the different approaches. Both the Local Education Authorities and the Local Health Boards fundamentally perform the same role – they are agencies tasked by the Welsh Government to deliver services,,,,
So should we have a new tier of Government  creating 5 -6  elected bodies to take  responsibility for  Local Education Authorities and the Local Health Boards consisting of 20 Representatives (we can even call them that) i each elected on a fixed term.

They  would be democratic accountable and hopefully as these representatives have to only concentrate on Health and Education more efficient.

If they prove to be able to deal with these areas of responsibility Policing   and the Fire Service could be added.

The whole point of devolution is that power should go where its most effective and simply taking Education away from local councils without giving us an alternative is not the way to go about it and education is to important to be left to a spat between Welsh Labour .

If you are to criticise or defend a policy you really need to tell as what the alternative is.



Monday 26 November 2012

Catalan Elections see Left Nationalist make gains.

The result of the Parliamentary Elections saw the main Catalan Party  CiU lose  12 seats but before Unionist and the Guardian  claim this a setback for Separatists. They had better look at the other "Nationalist Parties all on  the Left who won 37 a gain of 13 easily given the pro-independence referendum Parties a clear majority.
 Summary of the 25 November 2012 Parliament of Catalonia elections results
< 2010  Flag of Catalonia.svg  2016 >
PartyPopular voteSeats
Votes%+/–Seats+/–
Convergence and Union
Convergència i Unió - CiU
1,112,34130.68-7.7550-12
Republican Left of Catalonia
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya - ERC
496,29213.68+6.6821+11
Socialists of Catalonia Party
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya - PSC
523,33314.43-3.9520-8
People's Party of Catalonia
Partit Popular Català - PPC
471,19712.99+0.6219+1
Initiative for Catalonia Greens - United and Alternative Left
Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds - Esquerra Unida i Alternativa - ICV-EUiA
358,8579.89+2.5213+3
Citizens – Party of the Citizenry
Ciutadans – Parti de la Ciutadania - C's
274,9257.58+4.199+6
Popular Unity Candidates
Candidatures d'Unitat Popular - CUP
126,2193.48N/A3N/A
Catalan Solidarity for Independence
Solidaritat Catalana per la Independencia - SI
46,6081.28-2.010-4
Other parties
Blank votes52,8991.45-1.46
Valid votes3,572,31997.67+1.29
Invalid votes85,1312.33-1.29
Totals and voter turnout3,657,45069.56+10.78135
Electorate''


Indeed a quick analyst seems to show  adrift from the moderate Convergence and Union
Convergència i Unió - CiU which up to now have ben content with the status Quo  towards Parties that want Independence.

Indeed with CiU needing coalition partners  and the Republican Lft of CataloniaEsquerra Republicana de Catalunya - ERC doing so well they will probably enter into a coalition with the aim of calling  an Independence referendum 

The Unionist Parties  saw the Socialist PSC  lose 8 seats  the Conservative PPC lose 8 and the Spanish Unionist Party Citizens – Party of the CitizenryCiutadans – Parti de la Ciutadania - C's gain 6.

So the election largely saw  a swing to left wing parties on the Nationalist Side and right wing Parties on the Unionist side .

So whilst there was no real gain in the Pro-Nationalist camp ( I make it one)  there is a clear mandate for an independence referendum.

With the Basque country seeing a similar swing from the establishment  Parties that claim to be Nationalist but were content with the Status Quo . There are now three regions of Europe , The Basque Country , Catalonia and Scotland  and (maybe Flanders)  seeking to hold referendums in the next 5 years. We are now heading for a new Period of National Independence Movements  . How far behind will Wales allow itself to be.





Sunday 25 November 2012

Labour the new Scottish Tories?


David Miliband who has been on a prolonged sulk since loosing the Labour Leadership contest and been earning lucrative amounts from directorships though he still supposed to be representing his constituents of  South Shields yesterday warned an independent Scotland would have to
 “take its place in the queue” if it wanted to join the EU, and couldn’t just “leave the union on Friday, join the European Union on Monday”.
He told ScotsPolitics.com:
“This argument about Europe I’m quite interested in, because I’ve sat in European enlargement negotiations… and there are 35 chapters of EU legislation that you have to go through, and every line you have to ask ‘does the entry of this country change it?’
“And then you get down to voting, because in the Council of Ministers, every country has a certain amount of votes – so when you get a new member you have to change the voting weights; and critically, you change the amount of money that different countries pay when there’s a new member.
“So you can see, there’s 7 or 8 countries in the queue already – and Scotland would have to take its place in the queue of negotiating its entry.
“So one of the things that concerns me if you vote for independence, is that you leave the UK, but you’ll be in limbo
in Europe – it’s not like ‘leave the union on Friday, join the European Union on Monday’.”
But Miliband also  make s it clear that Labour would carry out the cuts agenda in the same way the Tories/LibDem are currently doing 

“There’s been a change in the psychology of the country actually – social security support has moved from being seen as a birthright to being something that’s balanced by responsibilities as part of a social contract,” 
. “And the truth is we’re storing up massive problems for ourselves. The net present value cost of that level of … unemployment is £30billion at today’s prices. There’s a hard message on this as well: you can only afford to [fix unemployment] if you’re willing to put on the table other things that you can’t then spend on.
“You know, an easy answer is ‘well, tax bankers’ bonuses’. But if we’re honest, we’re gonna have to rebalance the welfare state so that it’s much more in favour of supporting the things that are priorities rather than things that aren’t. Childcare and housing are massive drains at a time when wages aren’t rising very fast.”
A message that has already being promoted by Scottish Labour Leader  Johann Lamont, in September  who  delivered a speech challenging some of the underlying orthodoxies within Scottish politics and raising the prospect of an end to some universal benefits such as free tuition fees and free perceptions.

Not a message we hear from her compatriots in Wales .

It looks that Scottish Labour is not only the main voice of Unionism in Scotland it is also the main voice of conservatism.

In its efforts to undermine the SNP Labour have shamelessly adopted the policies of the Tories whilst hoping their current supporters will remain loyal.

And Labour Unionist are putting forward incredibly ridiculous  arguments  against Independence as Gerry Hassan points out here 

Including warning that 

  • British music will no longer be our music’, and suggesting that British culture and sporting achievement would thus become foreign.(Alastair Dar;ing)
  •  That independence would mean Scotland becoming the equivalent of a ‘British colony’. SNP plans  would  ‘a form of self-imposed colonialism more reminiscent of the old Empire’.(Gordon Brown)
As for Milliband dire warning that Scotland will have to join the queue to join the EU if it  voted for Independence despite no precedent or this, As no nation that was a EU Member has ever split up  although Greenland(an autonomous province of Denmark) withdrew in 1985

But if he is right wouldn't the remnant of England and Wales  also have to apply?After all it is a Union and shouldn't the new Nations that emerge from a Yes vote be treated equally by the EU?

Or is the idea of a Union of equals nothing but a myth.


Saturday 24 November 2012

EU Tory cuts and Labour games.


I must admit I have some sympathy with David Cameron over his call for a freeze in the EU Budget after all if you are making cuts through your own legislator it does seem perverse to agree to another increasing its spending
The trouble with Cameron is that he displays typical "British" arrogance" and simply looks like he appeasing those Tories who really would like the UK to quit the EU and offers no alternative to reforming the way the EU is run.

One simple way of saving Billions is to put the EU Parliament in one place

The provisional arrangements placed Parliament in Strasbourg, while the Commission and Council had their seats in Brussels. In 1985 the Parliament, wishing to be closer to these institutions, built a second chamber in Brussels and moved some of its work there despite protests from some states. A final agreement was eventually reached by the European Council in 1992. It stated the Parliament would retain its formal seat in Strasbourg, where twelve sessions a year would be held, but with all other parliamentary activity in Brussels.

So the the Parliament moves almost lock stock and barrel from Brussels to Strasbourg twelve times a year ending this cost alone might meet any cost in a rise in the EU and if Cameron really wants to change this he should make it a plank of his negotiation,.

The problem for Wales is that althoug a freze or cut in the UK budger might save the UKK some money at the moment we are net benefactors of the EU according to Plaid MEP Jill Evans on average each person in Wales contributes €195.82 per year to the EU, whilst EU funding to Wales is worth an estimated €243.98 per person annually.

And one thing can be certain if the EU Budget is cut or frozen and Wales loses EU funding then there's no chance of the Westminster government making it up even if it was to get an increase in the Tories magical rebate,

But Wales call was not helped when Ed Milliband led Labour in voting tactically with the anti-european Conservatives to seek cuts to the European budget.

So where does Labour stand do they want a freeze, a cut, or an increase in the EU budget?

Or do they simply want Cameron to fail ?

The future for EU funding for Wales looks bleak especially as the Conservative LibDem coalition government is thought to be considering proposals, as part of the ongoing budget negotiations, that would see such support reduced and allocated only on the basis of how poor Member States are, rather than looking in more detail at how poorer regions within wealthier Member States are performing as well.

As we are not a member state this could mean we will judged on the wealth of the UK alone which would be disastrous .

I began this discourse with saying I had some sympathy with Cameron and I have but the answer is to end the bureaucracy of the EU not to extend the cuts agenda further.

Of course if Wales was an Independent member of the EU we would have a say in this as even smaller countries like Luxembourg and the Baltic countries so apart from our four MEPs one of whom is a member of UKIP we have little voice.

With an increasingly Euro-Sceptic Tory Party and Labour playing silly games and not even telling us what they would do . Theres a very real chance that Wales will lose out in the next 10 years and if we want to have any relal say in Europe we need to be there on an equal as an Independent nation.







Friday 23 November 2012

New working group in Scottish Parliament.


There has been an Interesting  development in thr Scottish Parliament where Patrick Harvie and Alison Johnstone of the Scottish Green Party have reached an agreement with Independent MSPs Margo MacDonald, Jean Urquhart and John Finnie to establish a working group under the Parliament’s Standing Orders.

Ms Urquart and Mr Finnie quit the SNP last month after the party voted to change policy and scrap its opposition to the nuclear-armed NATO defence partnership.

The new alliance will give the MSPs involved representation on the influential Parliamentary Bureau which decides Holyrood business, in turn providing them with further opportunities to contribute to debates in the Chamber.

A joint statement issued by the Independent/Green Group agreed that

5 MSPs have decided to form a technical working group to assist them in their Parliamentary duties.Patrick Harvie and Alison Johnstone of the Scottish Green Party have reached an agreement with Independent MSPs Margo MacDonald, Jean Urquhart and John Finnie to establish a working group under the Parliament’s Standing Orders.This grouping will give the MSPs representation on the Parliamentary Bureau which decides Parliamentary business, in turn providing the MSPs with further opportunities to contribute to debates in the Chamber.The Independent/Green Group agreed this statement:“The five of us have discussed ways in which we can work together, and after taking advice from colleagues on our options, have decided to form a grouping to enhance our ability to represent our constituents.“Although every member of our grouping is pro-independence and believes strongly in a more equal, sustainable Scotland, it is by no means a formal, party-based arrangement; no MSP has changed, or plans on changing, their party affiliation or on taking positions different to those they have taken in the past.“We all look forward to pushing for an independent, fair and peaceful Scotland both inside and outside of Parliament, and to working with MSPs across the Chamber to achieve these goals.”

This is a welcome mood supporters of Independence who are dissatisfied with the SNP government  and would like to vote for a progressive alternative to without having to abstain ot vote for the Unionist Parties need to feel that they have an option.

I was impressed with Patrick Harvie the Scottish Green Leader during the last Scottish elections and was disappointed the Greens didn't get more members elected to the Scottish Parliament.

Of course the Scottish Greens a re a separate Party unlike the Greens in Wales who are an offshoot of the Greens in England.

The new alliance will  also have the same Number (5) s the Lib Dem Holyrood, who currently get a slot at FMQs two weeks out of three: So they will be seeking a  similar response.Though whether Harvie will be seen as leader and ask the opposition question or it will be divided amongst them waits to be seen.

Thursday 22 November 2012

Welsh Assembly 1 Attorney General 0



So it was comprehensive victory for the Assembly  Government,in  a historic Supreme Court verdict over the validity of the first bill it produced.

The five justices sitting on the case, which was brought by the UK Attorney General Dominic Grieve, ruled unanimously that the Local Government Byelaws (Wales) Bill did not breach the Assembly’s law-making competence.

It was claimed that the Bill which was the first to be passed by the National Assembly – was referred to the Attorney General by the Wales Office, which had concerns that the Bill’s provisions removed confirmatory powers from UK ministers without its consent.


In the judgement, handed down by the Chief Justice Lord Neuberger, the justices said the removal of confirmatory powers was necessary for the Byelaws Bill to work.

It added: “The removal of the Secretary of State’s confirmatory powers by the Bill in relation to the scheduled enactments would be incidental to, and consequential on, this primary purpose.”

One of the streamlining and modernising purposes of the Bill would be undermined if the Secretary of State’s confirmatory function remained in respect of any of the scheduled enactments.
“There would be no point in removing the Welsh Ministers’ confirmatory function in relation to the scheduled enactments unless the Secretary of State’s concurrent function was also disposed of.
“Indeed, the notion that the Assembly would intend to remove the Welsh Ministers’ confirmatory function while retaining that of the Secretary of State is "bizarre.”
I must admit it was probably worth the expense and time of bringing the case to the Supreme Court as the ruling appears to be clear and that the Assembly can now make Laws that touch on the powers of Ministers other than the Welsh Secretary.

If the Assembly Government had lost the case then it would have been seriously restricted in its Law making powers. Particularly in those devolved areas which are still tied in some ways to departments  of the Westminster Government.

A London Health Minister may have argued that  laws by the Assembly aimed at Health reforms affected his or her department.and was therefore ilegal.

Or some individual or organisation   may revert to Law in order to argue that a Welsh Bil may be illegal on some minor constitutional ruling..

It does seem that the the first bill that the Assembly made law  The Official Languages Act which  faced a similar challenge because the billas it was then  dealt with both the devolved Welsh Language and the non-devolved English Language would have found the same ruling on the basis that to legislate o n Welsh Language equality was bound to affect English and to claim that the Welsh Government were prevented from affecting English was equally bizarre.

So it may be that this was a worthwhile move by the Welsh Office and  Attorney General though I would like to know Who picks up the bill?

But I very much doubt that any challenge was ever considered when the Scottish Parliament started way back in 1999 making laws on its own and it still looks like we need a greater understanding of devolution and what it means from Ministers in London.




Wednesday 21 November 2012

Should Plaid concentrate on looking beyond Silk

Are Plaid preparing to temper enthusiasm for the Silk report and leave it to the Unionist to fight out?

Commenting on yesterday First Minister Question veteran BBC reporter Vaughan Roderick pointed out that Plaid Leader  Leanne Wood yesterday  concentrated on calling on the Welsh Government to spearhead legal action against banks and energy companies over market rigging. leaving the Silk commission call  on Tax varying powers to the Libdems La Pasionaria.

Vaughn  thought it was odd

But was it?

As I said yesterday Plaid should be arguing for parity with Scotland not this drip feed devolution where heaven the current proposal talk about them being implemented in 2020 after a referendum.

And even if  the Scottish Independence referendum  fails it is highly probable that will be granted further Autonomy measures after  the next General election.

At this rate it will  take 50 years to  catch Scotland and in the meantime  we fall further behind .

Also the Silk proposals are not the gift of the Assembly but Westminster and will depend on it being in the Manifesto for the 2015 or 2020 General Election.

Already ED Balls is lukewarm so there's no guarantee  it will be in Labour's manifesto.The Tories will be lukewarm and the only enthusiasts will be the LibDems who face extinction.

So should Plaid, really be wasting their energies on this rather then concentrating on calling for a whole package of powers to be devolved including Justice and Policing to achieve parity with Scotland  and openly state that this is only a prelude to independence.

Well yes . There's nothing in Silk for Plaid except to point out its limitations and the length of the process.

It may not be a Dead End but it is narrow and twisted passageway where the destination is unclear.

Tuesday 20 November 2012

Another unnecessary referendum?

The Silk commission  main recommendations  that the Assembly will be able to borrow money and there should be full devolution of business rates, stamp duty, landfill tax, aggregates levy and long-haul rates for Air Passenger Duty, with full devolution possible in future, as well as increased power for the Welsh Government to introduce levies.
Tommy showed his Mother and Father he was responsible by getting a Paper Round.

The Commission puts forward a model where income tax structures would be determined by Westminster, but then reduced by 10p in the pound at each level, and Wales would then have the power to vary the rate. This would be accompanied by an equivalent reduction in Wales’ block grant.

Clear?  perhaps not

Basically the plan is to devolve the right for the Assembly the right to raise taxes over a period of 8 years to 2020 when similar powers that were granted to Scotland in 197 will be introduced

But then only after another referendum.

The reason for this will be that there a precedent from the Scottish referendum and such powers can only be seen as legitimate if Wales


In September 1997, two questions were put before the Scottish electorate: one on the principle of establishing a Scottish Parliament, the second on whether or not any such Parliament should have powers to vary the basic rate of income tax by 3p in the pound.

But this was part of the main devolution question . It was not the major issue of the day. But the vote  cannot  it be seen in isolation?

But an even bigger change came in 2012 when a new Act passed with the support of the three Unionist parties in Westminster allowed

 The government to amend the way in which Scottish ministers can borrow to include bond issuance, without the need for further primary legislation.
Remove the need for Scottish ministers to absorb the first £125m of tax forecasting variation within their budget, providing more flexibility when responding to changes in spending levels, due to variations in tax income compared to forecasts.
Allow Scottish ministers to make discretionary payments into the Scottish cash reserve for the next five years, up to an overall total of £125m, to help deal with tax income changes, in the initial phase of the new system.

And yet there was no move to put this to the Scottish people.

There will be at least one General Election before 2020 and it remains to be seen whether the whole or part of  the Silk commission recommendations on whether Wales can earn a bit of pocket money on its own . Will this  be part of the main Unionist Parties manifestos.

So unless they call for a referendum . Why can't it be seen as any other Manifesto commitment?

Of course the reason the Unionist want it is they secretly hope the Welsh people will reject-it.

If they are then that should be it , There should be no need for a referendum . Whilst it is likely that even if Scotland rejects Independence they will be granted even further autonomy and support for this from Scotland will be taken for granted.

Plaid's response to sSlk should be that its irrelevant to the future of Wales and we should accept nothing less than parity with Scotland when it comes to devolution.

What Silk proposes is the equivalent of a teenager being told by his or he r parent that if they want a extra money they should get a paper round and if they prove their can act responsible in this a then in future they can get Saturday job in whatever the equivalent of Woolworth  is today,

Monday 19 November 2012

Guardian get it wrong on Catalonia


The Guardian website had  a head line

Catalan leader will fall short of majority to press for independence, polls say


The report said ..
Catalan president Artur Mas's party will fall short of the overall majority it needs at regional elections on 25 November to hold a referendum over Catalonia's independence from Spain, opinion polls published in several Spanish newspapers on Sunday have predicted.
A survey by the Metroscopia polling group in El País, Spain's biggest selling non-sports paper, predicted Convergència i Unió's (CiU) haul would be unchanged at 62 seats in the 135-member Catalan parliament after next Sunday's polls. Meanwhile, Barcelona-based daily La Vanguardia forecast the conservative party would garner 62-64 legislators in the assembly, compared with the 68 they would need to govern without the support of six other parties expected to win seats.
However; as a number of commentators have pointed out this is either deliberately misleading or the result of a poor understanding of Catalan Politics.

As the polls indicate that the even more  Pro-Interdependence minded   Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) is likely to win  12-16 seats and another party Iinitiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV-EUIA)are also likely to back a referendum. With the combined Anti vote PPC ,PSC, Cs .likely to get under a combined total of under 50 seats.
68 seats needed for a majority
DatePoll sourceCiUPSCPPCICV-EUiAERCC'sOthers / undecidedMargin
18 NovemberSEGRE
60–64

16–19

18–21

11–13

12–16

8–11

0–3
14–16 NovemberCrònica.cat
63–64

18–19

16–17

12

14–15

5

5
13–16 NovemberSigma Dos36.6%
60–63
15.3%
21–23
13.8%
20–21
8.1%
10–12
9.5%
14
4.5%
5
12.2%
0–2
21.3
13–16 NovemberGESOP38.0%
62–64
12.0%
15–17
11.6%
15–17
9.8%
13–14
12.8%
19–20

6–7

0–2
25.2
12–16 NovemberDYM39.6%
60–62
13.2%
17
14.0%
18
8.3%
9–10
12.5%
18
4.4%
6
8.0%
4–7
25.6
12–16 NovemberFeedback
62–64

17–19

16–18

13–16

14–15

7–8

0–2
8–15 NovemberMetroscopia37.3%
62
12.3%
18
13.2%
19
7.9%
10
12.2%
18
5.7%
6
11.4%
2
24.1
6–9 NovemberFeedback40.0%
64–66
12.0%
16–18
12.3%
17–18
10.2%
12–13
10.9%
15–17
7.0%
7–8
7.6%
0
27.7
30 October–2 NovemberFeedback39.7%
64–65
13.1%
18
12.7%
17–19
10.7%
14
10.1%
14–15
5.4%
6–7
8.3%
0
26.6
29 October–2 NovemberCrònica.cat
66

17

18

12–13

14–15

3

4–5
29 October–1 NovemberGESOP39.5%
63–65
13.0%
18–20
12.0%
17–18
9.0%
11–12
11.0%
17–18
5.5%
5–7
10.0%
0–1
26.5
22–30 OctoberCEO43.4%
69–71
12.0%
15
12.5%
18–19
8.0%
10
9.5%
14
5.1%
6
9.5%
0–3
30.9
9–29 OctoberCIS36.8%
63–64
12.9%
19
11.0%
16–17
8.1%
11
11.1%
17
6.0%
7
14.1%
1
23.9
25–26 OctoberAra39.0%
64–66
13.3%
19–21
12.9%
19–20
8.0%
9–12
11.2%
16–18
5.0%
5–6
10.6%
0
25.7
22–26 OctoberFeedback40.9%
65–66
13.4%
18
11.4%
17
10.1%
12–13
10.6%
16
5.6%
6
8.0%
0
27.5
18–22 OctoberGESOP39.1%
64–65
14.0%
20–21
11.5%
15–16
9.4%
13–14
10.2%
15–16
5.0%
5–6
10.8%
0
25.1
15–19 OctoberFeedback40.7%
67
15.0%
21
12.2%
17
9.6%
12
9.7%
14
4.2%
4
8.6%
0
25.7
8–11 OctoberFeedback43.2%
68–69
15.2%
20–21
12.0%
17–18
8.6%
10–11
9.3%
13
3.1%
3
8.6%
0–4
28.0
30 September–1 OctoberGESOP41.0%
64–65
14.5%
20–21
9.9%
12–13
7.7%
10
11.3%
17–18
5.0%
5
10.6%
5–6
26.5
29 SeptemberNC Report
[Note 1]
35.6%
58–59
16.6%
24–25
13.4%
20
8.9%
12
9.0%
14
3.5%
3
13.0%
3
19.0
26–28 SeptemberSigma Dos39.2%
64–65
16.9%
24–25
12.8%
18–20
8.5%
11
8.2%
12
3.3%
3
11.1%
0–2
22.3
21–27 SeptemberFeedback43.0%
66–67
15.7%
21
11.8%
15–16
9.6%
12
10.1%
13
3.6%
4
6.2%
3
27.3
16 SeptemberTelecinco
58–60

23–25

15–16

12–13

17–19

3–4

4–5
15 SeptemberNC Report
[Note 1]
36.8%
58–62
15.4%
22–25
13.2%
20
8.7%
11
9.5%
15
3.7%
3–4
12.7%
3
21.4
23 JulyAra34.5%
55–57
16.6%
26–28
11.2%
16–17
9.7%
11–13
9.9%
15–16
3.4%
0–3
14.7%
0–4
17.9
4–18 JuneCEO36.2%
60
16.4%
24–25
10.5%
15–16
9.5%
12–13
9.7%
15–16
3.7%
3–4
14.0%
0–4
19.8
30 May–7 JuneFeedback37.9%
58–60
17.7%
26–28
11.8%
16
9.9%
13
9.3%
15
3.2%
3
10.2%
1–3
20.2
7–9 MayGESOP33.9%
56–57
18.4%
28–29
10.2%
13–14
9.7%
13
10.6%
17–18
4.5%
5
12.7%
0
15.5
6–21 FebruaryCEO37.0%
62–63
16.5%
25–26
11.7%
18–19
8.1%
10–11
9.6%
14–15
4.0%
3–4
13.1%
0
20.5
16–19 JanuaryGESOP35.2%
62–63
16.9%
27–28
10.5%
14–15
8.6%
12–13
9.0%
13–14
3.8%
4
16.0%
0
18.3
2012
27–28 DecemberFeedback38.5%
61–62
16.9%
25
12.2%
19
10.0%
13–14
9.8%
15
2.1%
0–2
10.5%
0
21.6
20 November 2011General Election
(seat extrapolation)
29.4%
(46)
26.7%
(38)
20.7%
(31)
8.1%
(10)
7.1%
(10)
N/A8.0%
(0)
2.7
19–21 JuneGESOP36.7%
62–63
17.5%
27–28

19–20

11–12
6.5%
8–9

3

0–4
19.2
2011
28 November 2010Election Results38.4%
62
18.4%
28
12.4%
18
7.4%
10
7.0%
10
3.4%
3
13.0%
4
20.0


Indeed the Unionist vote seems to have drifted to the The Citizens – Party of the Citizenry which describes itself as centre-left and non-nationalist, although in fact it is a Spanish nationalist party.Which opposes even the extent of autonomy Catalans now enjoy. They are likely to increase their seats but not to an influential extent

The Guardian continues 

A recent survey by Catalan government-funded research group CEO predicts 57% of Catalans would vote to break away from Spain. However, the central government has said a referendum in the rich but indebted region would be unconstitutional, and the constitutional court in Madrid blocked a move to hold a similar vote in the northern Basque country as recently as 2008.
Can Spain really Bloc the democratic wishes of the Catalan people? Will they physically prevent a referndum  as some Madrid politician seem to be suggesting? read here
.
The Guardian  continue.....
Another potential stumbling block for a separation has been raised by doubts over whether an independent Catalonia could remain in theEuropean Union. When asked on Saturday at the Iberoamerican summit held in Cádiz, European commission president José Manuel Barroso replied that the bloc would stand by rules drawn up in 2004, ie states that secede would have to apply for membership.
"The legal situation has not changed since 2004. The Lisbon treaty has not introduced any modifications in that respect," he said
He doesn't say whether what remains of Spain will have to also apply for membership? But sureley the indication is that they would.

Indeed Barroso  is playing a dangerous game throughout Europe the EU is not actually the most popular Institution at the moment and Euro-Scepticism  is on the rise  (Though I haven't succumbed yet).

The thought that they may have to reapply and get a better deal from Europe might well be an encouragement for Catalans and it may be something the SNP might consider  a slogan

Vote Yes for a better deal with Europe

 might just have some effect,